Sunday, July 6, 2014

NAP Of The Day - Monday 7th July 2014

15.30 Ayr - Jazz @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win: Competitive 7f handicap in its own right with some decent horses in the line-up. However I feel the 3yo colt Jazz has a very fine chance to finally win in handicap company for the first time. He seems already a bit exposed with 14 starts to his name, however the 7f trip is quite unknown territory. In his only start over this distance came in a pretty strong class handicap where he finished good third against some excellent opposition. On that evidence it is hard to say if he really gets the trip, but on pedigree he certainly has every chance to stay that far and in fact pull out some further improvement. At Doncaster over 6f lto he was quite unlucky in my mind, when he didn't get a run at a crucial stage of the race, and he lost position as a result, however once getting out, he finished the race very well under hands and heels, suggesting that a step up in trip is very much what he wants. Considering that he is the highest rated horse in this field, with potentially more to come, he must be extremely well weighted and with his trainer having a fine record at Ayr, I firmly believe that, he is the horse to beat. 

Main danger could be Order Of Service, who won nicely over 7f on his penultimate start and was just caught in the dying moments of the race at Ayr today, over 1m. He'll apreciate the drop in trip and can race off the same mark. However he steps up in class and had a two fairly hard races in quick succession already, this tomorrow could be potentially too much. with that in mind, Jazz is a confident selection to win this race.

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Sundays NAP Due And Payable won nicely for us at 4/1. He trailed the field under a patient ride and when the false rail opened up vital space, he took his chance and quickened nicely. Only hands and heels were required to steer him to an easy success. 

SEA THE MOON slaughters opposition in German Derby

WOW! Did you see that? What an unbelievable performance from Sea The Moon! From the front, he set a quick pace, did then hang badly around the home turn and gave an awful lot of ground away, yet wins by as far as he likes hands and heels with the jockey celebration half a furlong out! I tell you what, this is the horse that could beat Australia. He is now best priced 10/1 for the Arc in October. 

German Derby - Betting Preview

16.05 Hamburg - German Derby: Twenty starts in this years German Derby - I can imagine that it will be messy! Some really good horses in the line-up though. Aiden O'Brien brings over Geoffrey Chaucer, who was so disappointing at Epsom, but is clearly better than that. With Ryan Moore in the saddle, he has obvious credentials to win this, however his wide draw doesn't make life easy. Hot favourit is the Sea The Stars son Sea The Moon. He is a multiple Group 3 winner, lightly raced, won his last start in good style, and should relish the additional furlong. Clearly the horse they all have to beat, Soumillion booked for the ride, if he gets a clear run, he'll be hard to stop. Wide draw is a concern and if he can get a clear run. Maybe he tried to get to the front though, then he can eliminate this danger. I think he'll win, but can't have him for short 15/8 and think there is better value to find. Impressive Bavarian Classic winner Magic Artist is an obvious danger on paper. His success in the Group 2 at Munich was visually exciting, but I doubt that he has the stamina to win this today. 

Wild Chief finished a very unlucky 4th in the French Derby. He was several times hampered, didn't get a clear run for a very long time, yet finished the race very well. He'll be happy with the additional furlong and has a really good chance to finish in the money. Godolphin's Pinzolo faild to act at Epsom, but is a good animal and is not without a chance. I'm not sure if he is up to this class though and pass him for that reason. Lucky Lion won two Group races this year already. He is an obvious contender for that reason. However he steps up markedly in trip and that must be a concern. The only filly in the race, Weltmacht, with Tom Queally in the saddle makes some appeal over the trip. She finished a good 2nd in a strong Group race last time out, but I feel this is a tough task and the brave move by connections to go for the Derby might well pay off in some decent prize money for a placed effort, but more is hard to see from my point of view. 

Speedy Approach will be ridden by Germany's top jockey Eddy Pedroza. He is not as lightly raced as others, but completely unexposed over the Derby distance. He finished an unlucky 2nd in the Bavarian Classic last time out, when travelled nicely but got short of room and hampered multiple times. He stayed on nicely in 2nd nonetheless. His pedigree is pointing clearly to the Derby trip and he should relish the additional 2 furlongs. By a Derby 12f, out of a mediocre mare who was best over long trips though, who herself is out of a Derby winner though. Amazonit won a Listed Derby trial at Bremen recently and looked excellent that day. He was outpaced 300m out and took a while to hit top gear, also didn't quite a clear run, but once he found his stride and got out on the wide outside, he was always going to win. He should improve for the trip I suspect. 

Verdict: Sea The Moon is the one to beat. If he gets a clear run, it is hard to see him not ending up in the winners enclosure. Behind him there are many possibilities though, and in this big field in-running luck becomes vital. Both Amazonit and Speedy Approach should relish the new trip, have some nice recent form to offer and have good jockeys booked for the ride. For big prices they make appeal on that evidence to me. 

Speedy Approach @ 33/1 Boylesports - 0.5pts win
Amazonit @ 40/1 Betfair - 0.5pts win

NAP Of The Day: Sunday 6th July 2014

14.45 Turffontein - MR 83 Handicap (1.450m): Wide open race. Lightly raced 3yo Max The Man is going to post as warm favourite following two nice wins in maiden company and subsequently on handicap debut. He's got punished with the maximum penalty and has 58kg to shoulder which is an awful lot for 3yo against seasoned older horses. However there is chance that he is better than his current mark and for all of that he looked smart lto, so a bold show is expected. Nonetheless he's to short in the betting given the huge weight. De Kock's Honey Bun might be better than what we have seen so far from her. She is lightly raced and can still improve, but she has to do so to be competitive Over the 1450m trip with decent weight in an easier race I give her a chance but against the boys it is still a tough task. The three key older horses should be the two course specialists Havana Beat Quad Bay as well as Due and Payable. Havana Beat did beat these two rivals earlier this year, but is much worse in the weights today. Quad Bay won of higher than his current mark in the past and with his course record given he is a real danger, but on the weights Due And Payable has a massive chance if he runs to form. He was 1/4 of a lengths beaten by Havana Beat back in March over course and distance, but that day with a big weight and has a 2kg swing in his favour today. He won off a higher mark in the past and comes into this race fresh after a really good effort at Vaal lto when he had a wide draw to overcome. Blinkers on for the first time today might bring out bit of improvement, the 2.5kg weight allowance by the apprentice jockey on board will help too. Draw is not quite ideal, and 1.450m might stretch his stamina slightly, but for all he has a huge chance. 

Verdict: If Max The Man is pattern class he'll win this. But then he has to be that good I feel in order to overcome his tough task assigned by the handicapper against older horses. From the older horses Due And Payable makes most appeal with weights in his favour, good collateral form and first time blinkers. --- Due And Payable @ 4/1 Sportingbet - 2pts win

REVIEW - What happened in the Durban July?

Opinions are divided about the end result for obvious reasons. People are in the camp of either the winner, Legislate, stating the result was altered for good reason. Others are in the camp of Wylie Hall, who won the actual race, and many argue, would have won even without interference. If you had a bet on WH, or if you're connected to the horse, you will feel hard done by considering the horse seemed to kept finding and didn't let Legislate pass him. From a neutral perspective, this result wouldn't have been changed in the UK I would imagine, but there are different rules in South Africa, and for that it was probably a correct decision. 


The severity of the actual interference becomes not obvious in the video above, but only really in a certain head-on close up: This one. There you can see that initially Legislate is shifting towards WH, however this happened behind the back of him and didn't have any impact. Then Legislate tries to pass but WH is fighting back, however is hanging to the left side, carrying Legislate over towards the stands rail. Horses touch each other around three to four times, there are at least two severe bumps from WH towards Legislate, which have probably affected his stride. Also WH was drifting further and further to the left. I suppose this case can be compared to the Elusive Kate/Sky Lantern race in the Falmouth last year. In the end, talking about the 2014 July, the result was very tight and impacted by Wylie Hall's interference, and therefore altered. That seems harsh, and If I would have backed WH, I would feel depleted, for sure. On the other hand, it is the correct decision after all in my mind, because the interference prevented Legislate from running straight and striding out properly. On a side-note: Having backed Legislate, I'm more than happy with it, for obvious reasons... 

What else? Well, we have to talk about pace. This was a big topic before the race and one of the reasons why I included two intended prominent runner in my betting (see preview). However I think nobody thought things would pan out the way it effectively did. There was for most parts of the race no pace on whatsoever. Jockeys on fancied horsed were caught napping. Anton Marcus on Rake's Chestnut, Kevin Shea on favourite Louis The King - they were heavily complaining afterwards, yet they didn't do anything against it when they could have done so. Sitting in rear, no movement - they are so experienced and should have known better. They had never any chance from their position in the race eventually. And here it is where you have to give credit to the jockeys of the first and second - particularly Richard Fourie on Legislate. He was prepared for this situation. Usually Legislate finishes from off the pace. But this time, despite the wide draw, Fourie steered his mount straight to the front of the race, was even leading for a while as long as nobody else wanted to take it up. That's why he was in the right position when it mattered, so was Wylie Hall. 

Futura stayed on strongly, was racing in midfield, around seven lengths off the pace for most parts of the race and the way he finished was really impressive. He was the hype horse and he has delivered in excellent manner. He is a Grade 1 winner in the making. Tellina, who was thought to dislike this track, was closer to the pace than usual, and it paid off. Outpaced when the race unfolded, he stayed on in fourth. I always though he looks more like a stayer and I believe with a positive ride, over 12f at Turffontain for example, he could be a Grade 1 winner. De Kock's Espumanti was backed heavily before the off and had a good position in the race, however was fighting early with her jockey and burned valuable energy. She lost the race in those early moments. Halve The Deficit had every chance, but seemed to find the additional furlong too far as he lost his place in the money in the closing stages. In The Fast Lane travelled extremely well and finished strongly. She was too far off the pace though. Yet an encouraging performance against the boys for the best 3yo filly in South Africa. Captain America was fighting as always with his jockey, he almost came down when he stumbled early on. I suspect he might gelded now and will race over shorter in the future. Louis The King and Rake's Chestnut had no chance whatsoever. Finishing wide turning home almost last, was just an impossible task. 

So what remains from this race: A controversial result in South Africa's richest and greatest race. A result altered for the first time in history. The best 3yo in the county, declared as the winner in the stewards room. Legislate will be campaigned with the Queen's Plate and the J&B Met in mind for next season, he'll gothen into quarantine for a campaign in Dubai, if all goes well. I think if he stays sound, he'll have a big future. This horse won this year a Guineas, the Cape Derby, the Daily News and now the July. Just astonishing!

Saturday, July 5, 2014

Belmont Derby - Betting Preview

The inaugural Belmont Derby tonight and some decent horses gonna try to win the big pot. European challenges are lead by impressive UAE Derby winner Toast Of New York. He made an sheer unbelievable transition from winning a class 6 maiden at Wolverhampton to become a run-away-winner of a prestigious Group 2 on the Dubai World Cup night. Question mark is obviously if he can transform this to turf now as he might be a horse that is simply very much suited to synthetic surfaces. His only start on turf is inconclusive, as it was his debut and he was a good deal beaten that day. First time lasix will boost his chances I believe, and he must have every chance to go very close from pole position, and the track, in theory should suit. For all of that though, I can't have him for 5/2. He might well be above this lot, but make no mistake there are some good horses in the field and he first has to beat them. I look elsewhere. 

The other European runners are interesting. O'Brien's Adelaide ran a very good race at Ascot when 2nd behind Free Eagle. That was over 12f and he looked rather beaten for speed than for stamina in my mind. He has fine form over 10f though and ground won't be an issue. He'll go close. 4/1 is a fair price. From the French challengers Gailo Chop makes most appeal. He is a multiple Group winner at this stage, still lightly raced and can improve further. If this kind of contest suits him remains to be seen. The Europeans won't have this all their way though and it might pay to look for value in the domestic challengers. Global View is a Grade 2 winner over 9f on turf, he's by Galileo so the step up in trip could suit. He finished 2nd over a mile behind Bobby's Kitten, staying on nicely. He might be come too late with his challenge though, as he usually is ridden with bit of restraint. So is Dance With Fate, who could be interesting if he can transform his polytrack form to Turf. already mentioned Bobby's Kitten is a really interesting contender. He tries a new trip, never raced that far, but has plenty of stamina on both sire and dam side, suggesting 10f will be absolutely fine. He finished 3rd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last year, when he set the track alight the first half of the race with a record breaking pace. He did well to finish as close as he did in the end in third. He won two Conditions races on Turf this year, but is a Graded winner too from last season. His only disappointing performance came on polytrack. His most recent performance was impressive when he quickened nicely here at Belmont. If he can settle today, he has a major chance, as stamina shouldn't be an issue. But is ability to quicken as well the probable tactical advantage being handily ridden, might be enough to fend off all rivals. Coolmore's Gala Award is another one I want to highlight. He won a Grade 3 over 9f earlier this year and has good recent winning form. His only poor form came on polytrack. He is nicely bred, should improve for the additional furlong on pedigree, and looked in his races always like a grinder, one who can sustain a high pace over a long period, while he is not one who can quicken instantaneously. But since he is ridden usually right up with the pace, he outstays his opposition. That's good skills that he could use today to run a big race. 

Verdict: The home challengers seem to be overlooked in the betting. Bobby's Kitten is a high class runner who has the ability to produce a turn of foot and can race from the front or up with the pace, which should be a tactical advantage at Belmont's turf track. Stamina shouldn't be an issue if he settles. Gala Award has the right tools to win a really big race and this test seems the right one to bring the best out of him. Wide draw is a concern but he should improve for the new trip.

Bobby's Kitten @ 8/1 Betfair - 2pts win
Gala Award @ 16/1 SkyBet - 1pt win

Eclipse Stakes - Betting Preview

The Fugue is a worthy favourite coming into this race with impressive form, since she beat a top class field at Ascot. She has conditions right in favour with the quick ground, and she is the class act, no doubt. However I do wonder if she is quite as effective at Sandown as she was at Ascot. Sandown as a track might not suit her entirely with the stiff finish and usually it rather suits horses that are able to maintain a high speed for a long time, then does it suit horses with a turn of foot. So for that reason I have to take her on, given her current short price. 

Racing Post Trophy winner Kingston Hill was taken out of the Irish Derby last week due to the quick ground. Now he is dropping to 10f after his gallant 2nd in the Epsom Derby behind Australia. The ground at Sandown is quick today, but connections have to take their chance since they didn't run last week. For obvious reasons this counts against him. If on this fast going, over a shorter trip, he has enough speed remains to be seen. He doesn't make much appeal to me though. 

The 2.000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder is stepping up in trip. He ran a very good race behind Kingman at Ascot and given the impression that he might not entierely unsuited by 10f. However given his short price, further improvement is well needed against tough opposition and there are doubts about his ability to get the trip nonetheless, so literally I wouldn't bet on it to stay a fast run 1m 2f contest and I have to pass him. Verrazano is slightly below European G1 class I think and 10f might stretch his stamina too. His limited seemed 9f in the US. We will learn allot about him today though I think. Maybe this is exactly what he wants and the track should suit him I feel. But for all of that, he's not for me in this contest, even if I was a big fan of his in the US. Stable mate War Command might get the 10f trip, given a chance by pedigree and the way he stayed on at Ascot. That says he was still rather disappointing that day as he was in the Guineas. He might simply not be as good a 3yo as he was a juvenile. He has to improve for the new trip a good deal anyway, to be really competitive here. I do like him allot though, yet as a betting proposition he is way too risky. 

Mukhadram and True Story both are grand horses with chances to run their race - if that is good enough, I doubt it. Mukhadram ran well last year in the same race, but is up against it this year. He should find a couple too good again, as he did at Ascot. True Story might well be better over quick ground and 10f then what he showed in his last races. But on the back of one single Listed race success it is hard to like him from a betting point of view. 

 I do really fancy Trading Leather though at big odds of 18/1. He needs fast ground to be seen at his best and he gets these conditions today. His record over 10f is more than decent, given that he won a Listed race over this trip and finished twice runner up in Group races last year, in the Dante Stakes and later the G1 Juddmonte behind Declaration of War, which is pretty good form after all. Obviously he gets further as he is an Irish Derby winner, but therefore Sandown might very much suit his racing style I feel with its stiff finish. I wouldn't reed too much in to his recent flop at Newmarket. He didn't settle at all that day. I feel he is bound to run a big race today though. If that is good enough to win has to be seen, but he should be right there in the shake-up and he is the value in the race in my mind.

Trading Leather @ 18/1 Be365 - 1pt e/w

Big Race Preview - 2014 Durban July




The Durban July - South Africa's greatest and most prestigious race is almost upon us! R3.5 Million are on offer when the 16 starters are set to thunder down the home straight of Greyville racecourse tomorrow afternoon. A distance of 2.200 meters they all have to master, with the chance to become a racing legend as soon as they cross the winning post. Te field is brutally deep this year, with a bunch of super impressive three year olds and some good older horses. All in all this kind of "Super Handicap" promises to be spectacular!


The main contenders: 

Louis The King, 4/1 - 3yo, Triple Crown winner. Won the Gauteng Guineas, the SA Classic and the SA Derby over trips from 7f-12f. Finished 3rd behind Legislate and Rake's Chestnut in the Daily News 2000 lto (10f). Not quite having the run of the race, coming from well off the pace and having to come through the whole field. Stayed on nicely. Should come on for that run and will relish the additional furlong. Class act. However will need an awful lot of luck from his likely position well off the pace and the likely slow pace will count against him. If he wins it, he's the real deal. Can't have him for his short price. 

Legislate, 11/2 - best 3yo in RSA. winner of the Cape Derby, KRA Guineas and the Daily News recently. Has beaten all fancied July runners in that most recent race. Usually races off the pace and has a wide draw. But has the ability to quicken even of a slow pace like no other horse in the country right now. Brutally impressive in all his races this year, the turn of foot is from another world and the only real concern is the trip. Never raced that far and almost caught in the Daily News, be it because he was idling or ran out off steam. But he's a son of a July winner and the way he produced his turn of foot coming from last and around the whole field in the Daily News suggests he has every chance to get the trip. The horse they all have to beat. 

Futura, 13/2 - 3yo colt, just made it into the final field and that under controversial circumstances. The dark/hype horse always talked up since winning a Conditions race in brutally impressive style. Was 40/1 for the July at some stage, is now one of the favourites. However he finished only 3rd in a July trial, needs to improve allot to be competitive here. That says he easily could do so over this trip with the right pedigree and a nice light weight. His public gallop was mightily impressive. Not my type of horse I like to get involved with for this price. Tomorrow will show if all the hype is justified. 

Rake's Chestnut, 15/2: 3yo colt, Lightly raced, only win came over 6f to date. But right pedigree for July and extremely unlucky in the Daily News when close 2nd behind Legislate. Hampered at crucial stage, found his stride again and finished super strongly. Should relish additional furlong. Unexposed and not quite clear if he is able to confirm that run but if he can he's a big runner. Opinions will be divided here. With only one minor win over sprint trip this is not for me. But he's certainly a very interesting contender and I can see why he has many supporters. 

Capetown Noir, 11/1 - 4yo colt, best miler in the country, stylish winner of the premier 1m Grade 1 contest the Queen's Plate earlier this year. Not as strong over further, 3rd in Daily News last year, 7th in last years July, no good recent form. First time blinkers, might have adverse effect. He looks to find it tough to stay this trip and be competitive in such a strong field, even more so as he has a huge weight to shoulder. Hard to fancy.

Espumanti, 12/1 - 4yo filly, talented, De Kock runners always to take serious. Won Betting World 1900 in fine style. Fillies find it often tough in this race and as a 4yo it's not any easier. Big weight to shoulder and while she is classy, it's hard to see her being good enough beating top class 3yo's giving so much weight away. Place claims. 

Captain America, 12/1 - 3yo colt, classy individual, consistent and rarely disappoints, but very aggressive, finds it hard to settle and slightly below top class. Might be better gelding. Better in the weight now compared to the big fancies, but he would need to improve a good deal to win it. Certainly place claims and solid contender though. 

In The Fast Lane, 12/1 - 3yo filly, best three year old filly, multiple Grade 1 winner, stays 10f. Strong recent form, good draw and good weight. However she'll might find it tough against the males here and not sure if the additional furlong suit her entirely. A decent run is surly expected though. 

Halve The Defict, 16/1 - 5yo gelding, connections won the last two July's. Largely seen as the pick of the older horses. Not yet won a G1 but improved with age and nice prep run lto. should get the trip and has the champion on board. Won G2 over 10f nicely earlier this year. One of a few horses who like to be prominent and could easily get run of the race and quicken off a slow pace when it matters. His recorded gallop at home last week looked massive too. Big chance to finish at least in the top five with conditions in favour.

Cherry On The Top, 22/1 - 4yo filly, Triple Tiara winner last year when in form of her life. Not quite as good this year, but distance will suit. Track might not quite suit as more galloping one is her game. Also as a 4yo filly she'll find it very tough in general against this opposition and it's hard to see her any better than running on strongly and finishing in the top five. 

King Of Pain, 33/1 - 4yo gelding, top class animal, won the Grade 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge last month when attempting to make all and holding on super strongly. Stamina is his game and he will relish to go further again. He might well enjoy the run of the race from the front and can set a rather pedestrian, even pace which will suit him to wind it up turning for home. He's tough and genuine. Big negative: top weight, 60kg is a very big ask and he need to be at his absolute best with everything going for him. Not impossible, but a place in the top 5 is absolute within reach. 


Verdict: Louis The King might well turn out the be the real deal, but he has conditions not really favouring him. Legislate is the horse they all have to beat. If he stays, which seems likely, his turn of foot will probably kill them all. His last three performances raised the hair on my neck, and it is well worth to watch as it simply is what racing is all about. 11/2 seems quite generous, taking all into consideration. Halve The Deficit as the pick of the older horses could have a tactical advantage, has good form and I find it hard to see him out of the top five with a chance to quicken at a crucial time and left the rest for wanting. 16/1 too big in my mind. King Of Pain, despite his huge weight, makes each-way appeal as a 33/1 chance. He can go from the front and will give it his all. Super recent form, stays. Might find the way too much win but place claims at least and price is too big imo. 

Legislate @ 11/2 Sportingbet - 3pts win
Halve The Deficit @ 16/1 Sportingbet - 1pt e/w
King Of Pain @ 33/1 Sportingbet - 0.5pts e/w


2013 Durban July - Heavy Metal won the race in a thrilling finish. Can the same connections can make it three in a row today? We'll find it out, at 15.20pm UK time.




Friday, July 4, 2014

Nap Of The Day - 4th of July

19.45 Haydock: Wee Frankie @ 2/1 PP - 5pts win

Wee Frankie won really well on debut, travelling much the strongest and outstaying a subsequent class 3 Handicap winner. His opening mark seems lenient and with natural improvement he should be ahead of the mark. Step up to 10f no problem as he's the son of a Listed/Group 3 winner over that trip and there is plenty of stamina on the dam side, and the way he was seeing out so strongly the 9f at Hamilton, suggests exactly that. Ground won't be an issue and a quite good 5lb claimer on board makes this an almost certainty in my mind.

Thursday, July 3, 2014

Selections for Thursday 3rd July 2014

16.20 Haydock: Tiger Lilly @ 4/1 Coral - 3pts win

Very lightly raced, won a maiden in May and followed up with a nice performance at York when staying on. Steps up in trip to 14f today which should bring out loads of improvement on pedigree, where stamina is all over. By Galileo, out of a mare that won over 2m - Tiger Lilly as a lightly raced and completely unexposed filly could be way ahead of her mark today I feel.


15.50 Haydock: Henrytheaeroplane @ 40/1 Betfair - 0.5pts win

Tough task against more experienced horses but this colt looks way overpriced on debut. He nicely bred and has fast ground all over his pedigree, being by Henrythenavigator, out of a G3 winning mare in the US. Might do well with a step up to a mile in time, but should have enough speed to be competitive in this. Clearly one to keep an eye on anyway.

Sunday, June 29, 2014

BBOTD - Sunday 29th June

15.40 Salisbury: Among Angels @ 3/1 StanJames - 4pts win

Among Angels won well a maiden on his 2nd start at Windsor and was thrown into deep water in the Windsor Castle where he ran an absolute cracker in my mind. He came from the rear, travelling on the far side well enough, and stayed on super strongly to win the race on his side, while it was a huge advantage to be with the pace on the stands side which was the reason why he finished only 9th overall. But this performance should easily be good enough to win a Listed race in the future, so today could be a good opportunity to prove future prospects. Step up in trip should suit, considering the way he stayed on.

Friday, June 27, 2014

BBOTD: Saturday 28th June 2014

17.15 Newmarket: Urban Dance @ 4/1 PP - 4pts win

Classy individual, lightly raced, and caught my eye on couple of occasions. Most notably lto at Newmarket over 12f when he travelled extremely strongly until the 2f marker, but faded badly soon after on his seasonal reappearance. No surprise for me, as he might not have been fully wound up and also doesn't appear to stay that far as on his two other starts over this trip he faded badly too. Most impressively also a Newmarket last year, when he travelled like the winner until almost the final furlong marker, but didn't find anything once off the bridle, which is very much unlike what Urban Dance showed over 10f before. He should definitely improve from the drop in trip, as on his debut he won at Newmarket nicely over this distance, after being extremely green throughout the whole race, while on handicap debut he found plenty once off the bridle in the closing stages.