Queen's Plate Preview - Legislate the one to beat!

What a race we have in prospect today at Kenilworth. It's South Africa's premier one mile race - the Queen's Plate! A nine runners strong field goes to post at 2.40pm UK time. In South Africa there have been some people disappointed about the field size. "Only" nine runners for such a prestigious race. Usually you have double figure strong fields for the big Grade 1's. On the other hand, nine runners - there are plenty of European Grade 1's that have trouble to pose anything close to that number actually. So it is not as bad as it may seem. 

Particularly because the seemingly unbeatable Legislate is surly the one to beat. The highest rated individual in the country, horse of the year and multiple Grade 1 winner. Yet it won't be a walk in the park today. Because the best horses aren't avoiding each other in South Africa. In fact they take each other on. And this fact is what is what we really need to embrace. 

Legislate is on five races long winning streak. He won the countries most prestigious races last year, with the Daily News as well as the highlight of the racing calendar, the Durban July! With that adding to spectacular Guineas and Derby triumphs. Back after a break recently, he destroyed a classy field in the Grade 2 Green Point Stakes without any fuss, despite the fact that he was probably only half fit. That says he is potentially a better horse over further than todays 1.600m trip. However his record speaks for itself. Legislate will try to make the Queen's Plate/J&B Met double perfect. Which would be some achievement and in that he'd better South Africa's most recent international star Variety Club. I'd go as far as saying: Legislate is even better than Variety Club - and we all know what VC did once he left the country to show-class his talent abroad. 

First of all, Legislate has to beat some tough opposition today, though. Most notably Louis The King. The South African Triple Crown winner - last season as a 3yo (Gauteng Guineas, the SA Classic and the SA Derby over trips from 7f-12f). He was probably over the boil in the Durban July but was back with a bang after a break last month! Louis The King stormed home in the Grade 1 Sansui Summer Cup, one of the top races of the calendar, beating 18 rivals! He had to give loads of weight away to young and old that day but he prevailed in a thrilling finish. He is an absolute super star in his very own right, however he hasn't been able to beat Legislate yet and he may fall short over the mile trip yet again. He is better over further and one would expect him to have the J&B Met as his main target in sight. 

Exciting youngster Futura was one of the hype horses towards the end last season but he fully lived up to it, running a hell of a race in the Durban July, just to win a deserved first Grade 1 subsequently. He couldn't match Legislate's turn of foot in the Green Point Stakes and had a troubled preparation for the Queen's Plate. He'll run his race but I suspect he'll be best watched this time and will be of much more interest in the Met. 

Jet Explorer and Tellina are fine horses in their own right, and they may well sneak into the places if one of the bigger guns fails to deliver. But realistically, they are not good enough. The same may not quiet be said about the only 3yo in the lin-up - Kingvoldt. He was a spectacular juvenile, but suffered some setbacks in the middle of last year. However nicely brought back to his best, he produced two very fine performances in Graded company against his own age the last two. His third behind top three year old Act Of War in the Grade 1 Cape Guineas is very useful form. He has yet to win over 1.600m, but on pedigree he has every chance to get the trip and the potentially slow pace should suit him today. At a big price I take a chance on him to finish in the money and to make his WFO allowance to count. 

That says, Legislate is of course the one they all have to beat. Currently trading at around 1/2, one can easily see what tough task the rest of the field has on their hands. I'm a huge fan of this horse and would absolutely love to see him romp home. However it is also great to see so much quality in this nine runner field. It should be a spectacular race. So make sure to tune it - At The Races committed to show the race!  

Selection: Kingvoldt E/W @ 16/1 Coral

Dubai World Cup Carnival is truly alive - A Review

SURFER: It was his target, and he ran like he clearly knew what he was supposed to do on the day. Surfer won the Group 2 Al Maktoum Challenge Round two in taking style while making most of his draw. Never too far off the pace, he attacked turning for home and was able to get lose one furlong out to draw clear by a bit more than two lengths in the end. This is particularly sweet since he was my selection for this race. Favourite Outstrip absolutely hated the Dirt on his Meydan debut. He was outpaced early on and subsequently never really in the race. The tough English runner Ocean Tempest also didn't look happy at all on this surface. A fact we may have to conclude more often than not in the next couple of weeks when we talk about European runners on the Meydan Dirt track. 

TRUE STORY: Impressive success for True Stroy in the Listed Singspiel Stakes. In hindsight, one could say he was very much entitled to win as good as he did. First time headgear, the gelding operation and being fresh clearly rejuvenated him. The change of gear he was able to produce entering the home straight demonstrated why he was once thought to be a leading Epsom Derby contender. Question is now if he'll be able to reproduce the same sort of form against tougher opposition the next time. This win meant that James Doyle was off to a flying start for the boys in blue. Recently acquired as the retained jockey for Godolphin, he couldn't have envisioned a better start.

DE KOCK: South Africa's top trainer has a rather slow start this season but one should expect that form will pick up soon. Some horses did perform eye-catchingly today and believing his words, his whole string is expected to improve with growing match fitness. Ajeeb was one that particularly caught my eye. Over 5f in the turf sprint, he travelled very well for a long time trailing the field and making some really nice progress late without getting a particularly hard race. Given the fact that he was off for more than a year and was once runner-up in a 7f Group 2 in Australia as well as only five lengths beaten in top class company behind Atlantic Jewel, one can easily see why this colt could be very interesting moving forward from here. Expect him to strip fitter next time and when stepping up in trip, he'll be one to have the money on I feel. Another interesting De Kock runner to keep in mind might be classy Sansaawhes. He was in receive of a slightly odd ride by Soumillon but finished very well and should come on for this run after being back from a break as well. 

MUSIC THEORY: An absolute nightmare run for the Godolphin gelding in the final race. He travelled extremely well in rear of the field but had absolutely nowhere to go in the home straight. He got bumped and had to fight for a gap, but once he got out late, he finished like a train. Keep an eye on him, he could go all the way into pattern class. Music Theory was a very promising juvenile when he finished once less than three lengths behind Kingman in the Solario Stakes. He had only two starts last year but ended 2014 with a fine runner-up effort at Lingfield. His lightly raced profile let's assume that there is still a good deal of improvement left.

DIRT: It is almost impossible to win from the rear of the field. The kick-back is horrible and it looks a bit like Wolverhampton at its worst days before the relay of the new surface... well Meydan today looked probably even worse! The vast majority of dirt races were won by horses very much up with the speed - with the only exception the 7f Handicap where they went a relentless gallop. So the trend from the minor meetings clearly continues in that sense. Doesn't mean that spectacular racing isn't be possible on this surface, however visually it isn't particularly pretty - not to my eyes at least. The beauty of flat racing for me is when you see a strong travelling horse looming hard on the bridle around the 2f marker, waiting to be unleashed to go and win the race. That's why I once fell so much in love with Paco Boy. His 2010 Lockinge Stakes success or the year before the Queen Anne triumph - simply poetry in motion!

Photo: © www.dubaiworldcup.com

Kick-Off! 2015 Dubai World Cup Carnival

It's this time of the year when Meydan really comes alive usually. Reason enough for me to look of what's on the tab on Thursday, when the The Dubai World Cup Carnival starts with a competitive card.

All eyes will be on the Al Maktoum Challenge, the Group 2 contest with a couple of interesting European runners in the line-up. It is a particularly intriguing contest because it is also the first Graded contest on the new Meydan Dirt surface. After a couple of minor meetings, it is fair to say that the surface needs still some time to bed in properly, that therefore the kickback is quite extreme and that horses up with the pace have a major advantage. That all can change with time, but surly are factors to keep in mind for the moment. How will the European runners perform on this surface? That's obviously a major question, and tomorrow surly gives us a first taste of what is to come. 

Personally I'm not a fan of Dirt racing. Never been and never will. The Tapeta surface wasn't without it's issues, but I liked it as it gave the impression to be rather fair and save. Fair in that sense, that artificial surfaces often do favour prominent horses, but that it appeared to be the case at Meydan that horses could win from virtually anywhere. And that despite the way the track is shaped, which gives prominent runners naturally an advantage due to the short run-in. Anyway, that's the past and it remains to be seen how the dirt surface will perform, and if it does in fact attract large numbers of top class US horses - which was the main reason behind the change. it has to be stated that this is certainly not the case as of yet at least, as no US runner is entered on Thursday

5.40 Al Maktoum Challenge: Surfer proved to be very progressive in the last couple of years since he moved over to Dubai. He seemed to have a particular liking for the Tapeta surface, and his 3rd place in the Group 1 Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 last March was a new career high. He was back after a break last month in a Listed contest, when trying to take to the Dirt for the first time. He tracked the pace and travelled beautifully and was then able to go by the long time leader inside the final furlong when it really mattered eventually. He is expected to improve from this run and as we've seen  the surface is no issue at all, so he'll be hard to beat starting from pole position I feel.

I find it hard to make a case for Outstrip. I suspect that the dirt will be a big problem for him first time out and while he ran with credit behind Kingman last season, his two other performances were abysmal. I just find it hard to support him for a short price. He has to show something tomorrow before I'd ever back him again. De Kock's horses are always interesting, I feel that they may benefit from this run tomorrow though  and might be of much more interest the next time. For a bigger price, Zambucca could be interesting with the recent start under his belt. He was a very good horse in South Africa and didn't do too badly in Meydan either. He lost his way over in the UK but could be interesting if going forward with positive tactics tomorrow. Capital Attraction loved it here around Meydan on the old Tapeta. If he can bring his A-game to the dirt after a break, he'll be a big runner too. 

5.05 Singspiel Stakes: This race evolves around True Story. Once thought to be a potential Derby winner, yet his star faded almost as quickly as it emerged last summer. Gelded and fresh after a break, connections must hope he'll find back to his best under the warm Dubai sun. I admit he has a good chance to score tomorrow if the mentioned things rejuvenate him. However he is not a price to get involved in. That says True Story is clearly is talented, and a big performance would be great to see from him. Mushreq is a very good horse, he proved that with a couple of nice performances last season in particular. He was recently beaten over 11f at Abu Dhabi. Drop in trip will suit but he's short enough in the betting and may found one or two too strong in this grade. 

Be Ready looked very promising as a 2yo but had clearly some bad injury problems last year. Remains to be seen whether he has retained some of his ability. De Kock's Sanshaawes is a very exciting runner if fully wound up after a break. He won a couple of Handicaps here last year and finished a fine runner-up on the Tapeta track in the Group 1 Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3. Two lesser efforts in very hot company may be forgiven and the drop in grade will surly help to see him competitive. He is a very attractive price and my choice in this race. 

5pts Surfer @ 9/2 PP

5pts Sanshaawes @ 5/1 PP

Betting: Wednesday 7th January 2015

5.40 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Democretes: Won last time in 2011 and never won off higher than 78 and never beyond 6f, however been placed on numerous occasions off much higher up to 1m. Down to more realistic mark and down in grade, though didn’t quite excel on AW yet.

Brigliadoro: Still not too many miles on the clock, won over CD off 10lb lower in October last year. Shoulder beaten over CD lto, up 5lb in the mark. More improvement required again today. 

History Book: Lightly raced, won debut over 9f at Wolverhampton two years ago. Change of tactics saw him go close over 1m lto at Lingfield, when making all and tiring very late. Drop to 7f for the first time, 5lb claimer booked.

Stonefield Flyer: Two times CD winner. Couldn’t follow up on November success in last two but ran with credit and still on fair mark. Won off higher in the past.

Eastern Dragon: Soft ground loving gelding, also goes well on AW. Hasn’t been seen since Ocrober when 3rd at Newmarket. Return to AW interesting and won after break in the past, but on career highest mark and up against it.

Rouge Nuage: Improved on AW last year and won over 7f at Wolverhampton LTO. Likely to be up with pace. Career highest mark to defy.

Marjong: Seemed to find 7f too far in the past, however consistent when last seen end of summer last year. Chance on good handicap mark.

Pactolus: Lightly raced one time maiden winner over CD last winter. Ran okay since then in 2014 without winning. Back after break and not impossible that he has still more to offer. 

Verdict: The lightly raced Pactolus looks an interesting prospect if fully fit. He has potential to improve from what he has shown in the past and as the bottom weight with a 7lb claimer on board, he has any right to be a prominent choice in the betting. The fact that he hasn't won since getting off the mark in a very poor Kempton maiden is something to worry about though, in a tough competition, as this is. Therefore his short price doesn't appeal to me at all. Brigliadoro looks a very fair price, considering his fine form. He may still have a bit improvement left in him and his recent close second proves that he is in good order. However up in the mark by five pounds for this recent performance makes the task more difficult today. He is nonetheless one who should have the ability to go close, yet the improvement is very much reflected in the price already. 

Stonefield Flyer won off higher than his current mark in the past and was back in form with a CD success in November. He couldn't quite live up to his revised mark, even though he ran well enough. He's got any chance to be thereabouts today, but it is a question mark if he is really better than an 80 rated animal these days. Marjong gets a chance from the handicapper and a fair run is on the card if he can stay the trip, which he found rather beyond him in three starts to date. He's been consistent though, and therefore needs to enter calculations. Eastern Dragon could be interesting back on the All-Weather now, however he appears not handicapped to win. The top weight Democretes finds it tough to win and his record speaks against him in this competitive field. 

Godolphin's History Book in contrast is one who makes plenty of appeal to me. A consistent performer, goes well on the All-Weather and looked a ready winner last time at Lingfield until caught in the dying strides. A drop to 7f for the first time is certainly interesting and with new positive tactics could be exactly what he needs to get finally his head in front again. He is still lightly races with a bit improvement possible to come, and with a fair handicap mark to play with as well as a decent 5lb claimer booked for the ride, he is the one to side with considering his tasty price tag in the betting which looks too big. 

History Book @ 11/2 VC - 5pts win

Betting - Monday 1st December 2014

15.30 Wolverhampton: Handicap (Class 3, 2m 119y)

Cousin Khee: Narrowly denied over 2m at Shouthwell lto, multiple NHF 2m winner on polytrack. Good deal above last winning mark due to good placed efforts.

Buckland: Prolific AW performer, much improved last year and ran well in defeat on couple of occasions this season. Once runner-up over 2m off 96. Runner-up at Kempton lto, though fair and square beaten – this is easier and should go well.

Dame Lucy: Improved middle-distance runner this year, though disappointing when last seen. First start on AW may work but trip is big question mark.

Entihaa: Consistent stayer who find winning difficult. Landed Handicap at York in September, not so good last two. Needs to find improvement for AW debut and looks not particularly well handicapped.

Hidden Justice: Fair multi-purpose performer, will surly get the trip and goes well on AW. Two big performances in October after coming back from break. Should go well.

Mister Bob: Improving low-grade stayer. Has loads to find on ratings. Low weight can help.

Uncle Bernie: Rapidly improving this year over staying trips. Won three of last four and 3/3 over CD. Very impressive lto and despite having a bit to find on ratings, he can go really close if he improves again. Turned out quickly under a penalty, he's given a good chance. 

Verdict: The two improvers at the bottom of the weights are heading the market and surly have a sexy profile. Uncle Bernie in particular seems to love it around Wolverhampton and is bound for a big performance turned out quickly under a penalty. I'm not so sure about Mister Bob who may have the improvement in him it takes in this hot contest, but he is way to short in my mind. Hidden Justice is very interesting runner on AW debut. Doing well lately, he'll get the trip and is on a fair mark. But on the other hand his sire's offspring didn't seem to perform particularly well on Tapeta in the past, and he looks nothing more than a fair price to me. Cousin Khee is a very good horse on his day, though he seems high enough in the mark at the moment. However Buckland looks a rather big price given how well he did in some really hot staying races this year. He hasn't won over 2m yet but has been placed and gone close in the majority of his starts over this trip and finished a close runner-up of a mark off 96 in an extremely competitive handicap last season. He may not be that good after all this year, but his 2nd in a strong race over 2m at Kempton a fortnight ago is the best form on offer in this field. Todays race looks easier on paper, and that must gibe Buckland a fine shot to go close. Obviously the trip may stretch him but there seems not to be too much pace on here, so that should help. 

Buckland @ 5/1 VC - 5pts win

Betting: Saturday 29th November 2014

19.45 Wolverhampton: Handicap (12f, Class 3)

Esteaming: Tailed off in November Handicap, fair form over the summer without winning, career highest required on first AW career start. Good chance to take to surface on pedigree.

The Lock Master: CD winner but disappointing last four starts since winning at Southwell.

Uramazin: Poor form on return after break earlier this month and poor in handful of starts since good 2nd in hot Kempton Handicap. Never won over 12f and AW. Age may catch up.

Aladdins Cave: Veteran on good mark judged on old form, fine AW record over 12f. Below par in last two runs on Dundalk All-Weather.

Personal Opinion: Two from two on the AW, still lightly raced. Poor on turf this summer. Needs to prove he is up to current mark, but return to All-Weather sure to suit.

Art Scholar: Okay form in last number of starts without coming close to win. Up in trip should suit but looks not particularly well handicapped at the moment.

Vivat Rex: Won good maiden for Aiden O’Brien at Galway this year. Found out in subsequent Listed race and long way beaten for new yard in Listed race earlier this month. Looks lazy type but lightly raced and opening mark fair.

Cerutty: Lightly raced CD maiden winner earlier this month, very taking performance and third in Kempton maiden behind Kalaatah (subsequent fourth in Listed race) looks very good form. Mark could be lenient. 

Verdict: Not too many seem to have a realistic chance to go close. Godolphin's Personal Opinion proves popular in the betting given that the yard is in form and that he loves it here at Wolverhampton. He sure should improve from his last poor showings on turf, but neither his current handicap mark nor his price look generous. Cerutty is a very interesting runner. I fancy him to run a big race after broke his maiden tag over CD recently, with the runner-up a subsequent winner. Cerutty's performance on his subsequent start when third behind exciting Kalaatah rates a big one too and it is possible that an opening mark of 82 is lenient. For all, this is much tougher today nonetheless and he looks only a fair price to me. Vivat Rex may improve from his UK debut now going handicapping, but I like to see something from him before it is possible to judge properly. Top weight Esteaming looks overpriced though. A career highest is expected, but his form this year was pretty consistent and good in tough Handicaps bar when a long way beaten in the November handicap recently. A switch to the All-Weather is interesting and on pedigree should very much suit. If it can bring out a bit improvement, he'll go very close. Worry is obviously the weight he has to give away.

Esteaming @ 5/1 Coral - 5pts win

Betting: Friday 28th November 2014

18.10 Dundalk: Handicap (5f, 3YO plus)

Sylvan Mist: CD winner in January of 2lb lower, good fifth in big Curragh Handicap in September, found out for class in listed race last month here. This more realistic and entitled to go close. 

Strategic Heights: Goes well at this track, last win off 4lb lower but placed off higher. Fair 4th in close finish, having loads to do from the back of the field. Drop to 5f should suit and competitive here.

Canon Law: Irish debut, didn’t set world alight in UK. Drop to 5f not sure to suit.

National Service: Won poor 5f maiden at Kempton last, followed with close defeat of mark off 70 on Nursery debut. Rather lost his way since and badly outpaced over 5f last month at Lingfield.

Danz Gift: Lightly raced, finished eye-catchingly three weeks ago on handicap debut when slowly into stride and loads to do turning for home. More to come and chance of same, but needs to improve in this field.

Majestic Timeline: Goes well this track. Won off 3lb lower last winter. Disappointing last three starts but may come on for recent outing after break. On realistic mark.

Speed Dream: Veteran who has never won on AW but fair 4th here over CD lto. Chance to go well from bottom weight. 

Verdict: Top weight Sylvan Mist found life tough in a CD Listed race but her performances before should ensure that she has a big shot in this race, given that she is down to a handy mark and goes usually very well at this track. She was a good deal beaten by current favourite Strategic Heights back in February, but a 11lb swing in the weights should help to turn the table. The latter one rates a big danger nonetheless. Strategic Heights finished a close 4th recently and the drop in trip is sure to suit today. He had loads to do the last time and if he is in striking distance turning for home this time, he'll be a major contender. Lightly raced Danz Gift has obvious claims after a promising handicap debut. She has to start better though and needs to improve a bit against some tougher rivals. But she looks progressive and should run well. Majestic Timeline is not to underestimate. She will come on for her recent run after a break and she is down on a fair mark. Speed Dream should run his race but needs to have things fall absolutely right for him to win in this field. Canon Law and National Service have loads to do on form and ratings. That says the 4/1 for Sylvan Mist appear too big in the field.

Sylvan Mist @ 4/1 Betfred - 5pts win

Betting: Thursday 26th November 2014

18.25 Kempton: Nursery (Class 2) 

Muradif: Top rated, progressive and good form since winning a Nursery off 9lb lower over CD. Followed up with strong 2nd, and fair performances last two. Should appreciate drop in trip & cheek-pieces may help to focus better. But bit more required to overcome current mark.

Vegas Rebel: Very progressive in recent week. Won at Brighton, beaten by narrow margins last two, including seven days ago over CD. Quickly turned out again and can race off same mark. Obvious chance.

Colour Party: Easy maiden winner over 7f at Wolverhampton fortnight ago following up on fine runner-up in hot Newmarket maiden. Lightly raced, Handicap debut. Fair mark and more to come.

Them And Us: Lightly raced winner on racecourse debut, not entirely disgraced in hot Doncaster Nursery. Chance if takes to All-Weather.

Zaza Zest: Improved for step up in trip and slower Southwell surface when landing poor maiden a fortnight ago. Much more required here and not exactly an exciting AW pedigree.

Cascading Stars: Runner-up last three starts over 7-8f. Seems in grip of handicapper and good deal of improvement required against much tougher opposition.

Almoqatel: Debut for new yard, won CD claimer in September. Very hard to fancy on Handicap form. 

Verdict: This is a really interesting Nursery which can go either way. The only won to oppose easily are the two lowest rated individuals. They should find this here way too tough. Favourite Colour Party looks a nicely progressive sort. She was a fine 2nd in a hot Newmarket maiden and broke the tag with an impressive perfomance at Wolverhampton. The merit of that particular form is questionable, but her opening mark is fair and she is open to any kind of improvement. Her current price looks fair but nothing else though. Muradif is sure to appreciate the drop in trip. He ran with credit the last two but found the trip to far. He is a CD winner but on balance he doesn't appear to be well handicapped. Vegas Rebel's close second in a hot class 3 Nursery at Newbury is probably the stand out piece of form in this field. He was agonisingly defeated by a tight margin subsequently at Kempton again, but going off the same mark here tonight, he must rate a very good chance to be right there when it matters. He looks overpriced at 11/2. Them And Us could be an interesting runner if he takes to the All-Weather. A winner on debut and not disgraced in a hot race subsequently, he may be open to more improvement and he is getting backed off the boards at the moment. Zaza Zest is another one who may have still more to offer, even though the merit of her recent Southwell win is questionable and the switch back to polytrack not sure to suit. 

Vegas Rebel @ 11/2 VC - 5pts win

Betting: Wednesday 26th November 2014

Result from the 2.35 Lingfield: Lyn Valley 2nd, Dominandros 3rd. Favourite won it from the front. 

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19.30 Dundalk: Conditions Stakes (3yo+) 

Akasaka: Multiple course and distance winner. Beaten in 7f claimer under very favourable conditions. First start for new yard now.

Dolce N Karama: Once 4th behind Kingston Hill in Racing Post Throphy. Not fulfilling promise subsequently, still a maiden but gutsy runner-up in 10f Leopardstown Handicap last month. Drop in trip not sure to suit.

Camakasi: Broke maiden tag with impressive success over CD earlier this month. Strengths of that form a question mark though. Looks improving and more to come.

Doc Holliday: CD winner and excellent form in recent weeks, winner of big Curragh handicap, followed up with another strong performance in hot race. Bit to do on weights probably and trip slight concern.

Artistic Integrity: Good winner of 7f Handicap at Gowran Park this summer, followed up with third at Leopardstown. Disappointed when last seen. Hast to prove stamina. 

Verdict: Wide open race and you can pick holes into the credentials of each and every individual. Probably the one that is easiest to rule out is Artistic Integrity who does look up against it and unlikely to stay the trip. Recent maiden winner Camakasi heads the market currently and looks a solid chance, given the visual impressive performance lto. It is a concern that it took him eleven races to win, though, and the form of the maiden looks pretty poor, so it is debatable what is really worth and today will be a much better indicator. Aksaka's track record is excellent but on form he is opposable and it is a major worry that he wasn't able to win a claimer over CD which he was entitled to win on ratings and weights lto. The change of yard might help though. Dolce N Karama once promising 2yo career hasn't concluded in a progressive classic season and while he has done better lately in handicaps, the drop in trip is a real worry as he looks more of a stayer than a miler. However if he gets an easy lead up on front, it is not impossible that he can outstay his rivals. Doc Holliday may has to give weight away to the three year olds and doesn't appear to be well weighted, but on form he is the best horse in the race. He was an impressive winner of a low grade handicap at the Curragh over 7f this summer, clearly having loads in hand. And he followed up with a strong performance in a hot Curragh Handicap over 1m where he didn't have things going quite his way. This rates a very strong piece of form in my mind and the only slight concern is that the trip here today could stretch his stamina. He has won over 1m before, but I suspect his optimum is 7f. Nonetheless, he rates a big chance in this field and looks overpriced against the other runners. 

Doc Holliday @ 4/1 Betfred - 5pts win

Betting: Wednesday, 26th November 2014

14.35 Lingfield: Handicap (Class 2)

Viewpoint: CD Winner, Last career win came over 12f here. Not a particularly good summer in big handicaps over the summer. Back on the AW will help, but on a high enough mark.

Castilo Del Diablo: Course winner over 12f, excelled on the AW over further in spring. Not seen since April. Trip probably too sharp and will come on for run.

Maverick Wave: Well bred & generally lightly raced, 3rd in hot Handicap over 9,5f at Wolverhampton. Talented and more to come but concern over trip and stamina up to 10f now.

Energia Fox: Brazilian import. Second in G1 earlier this year back home. Two 3rd places in Listed company since racing in UK. Surface unknown and might be better suited to further.

Lyn Valley: Decent handicapper, won Doncaster class 2 in July, disappointing in two most recent start. Little break. AW debut. Should be well suited on pedigree but career highest required.

Dominandros: Won twice in France this year, including maiden on AW. Not disgraced when 5th in hot AW conditions stakes over 1m at Chantilly last month. Return to 10f may suit. 

Verdict: I was very sweet on Maverick Wave the last time he was seen at Wolverhampton. He was backed off the boards that day - exactly the same happening this morning - but I felt he was rather disappointing the way he finished the race, having it on his mercy turning for home. My concern back then was that he may not quite stay the trip, which was what happened. He goes up an additional half furlong today. While it is not impossible that he finds the required improvement given that he is well bred and lightly raced, I find it hard to have enough confidence to back him for a very short price. However in this small field, the pace might be not as relentless as the last time, which should suit him. Nonetheless, 5/4 seems way too short. The Brazilian import Energia Fox is a very interesting runner if she is able to handle the All-Weather. She looks talented enough and is potentially on a very fair mark. The trip might be a bit too sharp though, and on pedigree I can't find too much that makes me confident that polytrack is her surface. So today I'm going to avoid her. I suspect that Castilo Del Diablo will use this run as a stepping stone after abscence, and Viewpoint may well be competitive, but is by no means well handicapped. The two horses towards the rear of the betting are very interesting though. Lyn Valley has the pedigree to excel on the All-Weather. He's been a decent handicapper, won a good handicap this year and may a horse that can improve now switched to synthetics. He is high enough in the mark but could easily outrun his price tag. The same counts for Dominandros, who is a bit an unknown quantity on his Handicap debut. However he is still lightly raced and shaped with promise in a couple of starts. He won on the All-Weather in France and when seen there the last time a couple of weeks ago, he ran well in a hot race. Up in tip shouldn't be a problem given that he won over 10f on soft ground in the past. That say he could be anything today, but given his nice AW profile, he is quite a big price. 

Dominandros @ 12/1 William Hill - 5pts win

Lyn Valley @ 14/1 Bet365 - 5pts win

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Nice winner yesterday with Street Artist, who won really well and much easier than expected. The perception that he has more to offer and a big chance quickly turned out under a penalty was right. He travelled much the best in hands of Joe Fanning and drew clear in the closing stages. The handicapper will probably catch up with him now, though

Betting: Tuesday 25th November 2014

15.10 Southwell: Handicap (Class 5)

Street Artist: Overcame widest draw and poor start to make all & win with plenty in hand lto. Pedigree to do really well on fibresand. Big chance under penalty.

Classic Colori: Has been hurdling lately. Potentially on very fair mark and good chance to go well on fibresand, but trip the big question mark. Though bit of stamina on dam side.

Yul Finegold: Fine second lto and 2lb rise in the weights leveled out through 7lb claimer on board today. Hasn’t won over 12f yet (0/5) and fibresand debut.

Luv U Whatever: Four times course winner, drop in class. May found 12f tick too far and not particularly well handicapped.

Layline: Has been placed in three of four Southwell starts. Gets the trip but mark high enough.

Royal Marskell: Good runner-up earlier this month, can race off same mark.

Mixed Message: Won seller lto. Didn’t land a blow in handicaps this year. Hard to know what to expect off current mark.

Reach The Beach: CD winner earlier this month, beating Royal Marskell that day. Cam well clear and chance to follow up. 

Verdict: I can't see why Luv U Whatever is a short as 5/2 and heading the market. His Southwell record is impressive but the trip seems too far judged on previous forms and given his current mark doesn't appear to be particularly generous, I find it easy to oppose him. Reach The Beach as recent course and distance winner should be right in the mix. She won well earlier this month and off a revised mark she can still go well today. Royal Marksell was fair and square beaten in the same race as a second that day and despite the swing in the weights, he may be simply in the grip of the handicapper. Street Artist tops the weights and is turned out quickly under a penalty a recent success at Wolverhampton. He must rate a big chance and looks overpriced. Leaving the turf forms aside, he has very strong All-Weather form to offer and his most recent success was visually very impressive. He had the widest draw to overcome, started poorly, yet jumped soon to the front of the field and set a very fair pace. Yet he was well able to quicken in the closing stages to draw clear and win in excellent style. He looks like an improving horse on the All-Weather and the switch to Southwell shouldn't stop that at all. He appeared to be perfectly fine on the fibresand on his first start when 2nd in a maiden last year, and on pedigree he has very strong credentials to well on this surface. 

Street Artist @ 7/2 Coral - 5pts win

Betting: Thursday 6th November 2014

19.40 Wolverhampton (Class 2 Handicap) - If Solar Deity is fully fit after his 202 days long break, he has a big chance, but I feel with the mark and big weight to shoulder, he is vulnerable if not at his brilliant best tomorrow. Favourite Maverick Wave makes plenty of appeal though. He is lovely bred, with a nice US pedigree and has strong form to his name, most recently on British Champions Day in a big Handicap where he finished a strong runner-up. He won on the All-Weather earlier this year and in fact the surface should be no problem at all. His mark looks more than fair as he could be easily the class act in this field, given that he has a weight advantage, all seems set up nicely for a win. Only slight concern is the trip. Not impossible that he gets the 9,5f, but something we have to find out tomorrow on the track. I still regard his price as too big given all the other facts mentioned. 

Small saver Earth Drummer. He tries the trip for the first time as well, but on pedigree there is no reason why he shouldn't get - and in fact - shouldn't improve for it. By Irish Derby winner Dylan Thomas out of a Giant's Causeway mare who's sire is dual Derby winner Generous. ED tried the AW quite recently for the first time, finished 3rd in a hot 7f race while having to overcome a wide draw and certainly didn't get the run of the race either. He stayed on nicely in the end. He should go close too and is overpriced imo. 

Maverick Wave @ 5/2 Bet365 - 10pts win

Earth Drummer @ 11/2 Bet365 - 5pts win

15.20 Meydan: Alraased @ 28/1 VC - 1pt win + Filfil @ 9/1 VC - 1pt win

Meydan opens its doors for the first time for their new season - a special one, as they laid out a new Dirt surface, which is replacing the Tapeta surface, which was in place the last couple of years. We will see how that goes. Personally I'm not the biggest fan of this surface, but I'm open minded to give it a fair chance. Anyway, I'm going to have a small punt on Alraased in the second race at Meydan today. Not sure what to get from him today but he looks pretty well handicapped on old form, being allowed to race off 75, while he won off 84 at Kempton a while ago. 2013 was a wasted year and he hasn't been seen for well over year until returning at Jebel Ali last month. Well beaten that day, but up in trip to 7f looks the right trip today and a four pound lower mark should give him a chance if he can regain some of his old best. Dirt is an interesting surface for him, with his US pedigree, it could work well. Otherwise nothing too obvious in this race in my mind anyway, even though Filfil makes also some appeal to me for a bigger price, given the fact that off 87 in February this year at Meydan, and is down to 80 now. He has a fine Dirt pedigree and may go well as a fresh horse today, the trip isn't an issue.