PREVIEW: J & B Met (Grade 1)

This is the big one - South Africa's premier race over 2.000m, and only overshadowed in its importance by the Durban July. And what a renewal it promises it to be. Now, unfortunately, it lost a bit of its excitement due to the scratching of horse of the year Legislate. The champ suffered from a viral infect which caused him to run below par in the Queen's Plate earlier this month and wouldn't have been ready in time for the Met. While that is unfortunate, the 2015 J&B Met still remains an intriguing contest. We have South Africa's two second-highest rated horses in the field, the brilliant Futura, and last years triple crown winner Louis The King. Those two are expected to fight it out, and since they finished first and second in South Africa's premier mile race last month, it'll be very interesting to see how it pans out today, now over the additional two furlongs. 

Futura was last season the up and coming superstar, hyped throughout the year and particularly before the Durban July, without having ever won at the highest level. However a brilliant third in the July, and a subsequent well deserved Grade 1 triumph, proved that he is no flash in the pan. In fact he has trained on and is back now even stronger it seems. Earlier this month he was able to land the prestigious Queen's Plate, despite a troubled preparation, and over a seemingly trip short of his optimum. Coming from off the pace in a slowly run race, he got a no-nonsense ride to prevail. Considering that he is thought to be better over further, and that the Plate was only a prep, one would hope that he is able to progress again towards the Met, with the additional 400 meters a positive. He's drawn in the middle, right beside his potentially closest pursuer - Louis The King. 

Louis The King. The 2014 Triple Crown winner (Gauteng Guineas, the SA Classic and the SA Derby over trips from 7f-12f) had the Met as his main target in sight since coming back from a seasonal break. Potentially he had the perfect prep in the Queen's Plate, when he finished a close runner-up behind Futura. That day he travelled really well, but in contrast to winner Futura, didn't get a clear passage and had to sit and suffer until late. Once In the clear he finished like a train without being really touched. Connections couldn't have been happier. He didn't get a hard race but clearly showed excellent form over a trip definitely too short of his optimum. He'll be enjoying the 10f trip today and looks the one to beat to my eyes. Class, heart & stamina - he's got it all.

On pure form, it looks hard to look beyond these two. They are top of their generation and with Legislate out, either of those two has the huge chance to win this prestigious race. However there are a couple of pretenders who are worth mentioning at least. Geoff Woodruff's Telina has been the focus of some good ante-post money and trades currently as third favourite - which looks probably a bit surprising, given that he hasn't won in over a year, and never in Grade 1 company. However there is no doubt that on his day, this gelding can be very competitive and a recent fifth in the Queen's Plate was promising. He wasn't quite speedy enough over the mile that day, however wasn't beaten by far and looked to me always like one who actually would enjoy the 2.000m trip. With a good draw today, he should run well.

Justin Snaith won't be saddling his stable star Legislate today, however has five other runners in the line-up and most of them have good credentials. With Arion he's got last years Derby third here today. This four year old colt seems to hit form since he won a prep race a fortnight ago. He's a bit to find on the ratings and this is much tougher today, but he has a good draw which helps his positive tactics. Stable mate Dynamic is also one who likes to be up with the pace, and who enjoys a fine draw today as well. Already a five year old, he's still pretty lightly raced with only eight career starts under his belt. That is because he lost almost two seasons due to injuries. He finished an excellent runner-up in the Derby back in 2013 behind smart Capetown Noir, but then leg injuries hit him badly and he was thought to be unable to race ever again. He got plenty of time out in the field and healed eventually. A little miracle. In September last year he was back and has taken really off since then. Two rather easy tasks with perfect execution followed by a Grade 2 success in December. He has had his time off since then but that is because he is best fresh and Snaith wanted to ensure he is the fresh horse today, giving him the best possible chance to run to his best. No doubt, this Dynamic is the dark horse in the race. Least exposed, with only one start over 2.000m, which was his fine Derby second. He's bred for this trip and is for obvious reasons one who could easily spoil the party. 

Silvano son Power King is another one who is unexposed over 2.000m. He had only one start so far, raced most of the time over shorter, but has been able to stay 2.400m on the sand when runner-up in the Winter Derby. He hasn't quite shown this class on turf yet, but has potential to progress. Veteran Gold Onyx is a consistent runner over various trips. However he's best known for strong staying performances, like when he was a close third in last years Gold Cup. He would hope for plenty of pace to bring his stamina into play. Killua Castle has had even more career starts - 32 - but seems to get better with age. He has always shown his best over slightly shorter, but finished a very good runner-up in the Sommer Cup last November behind Louis The King. A repeat of that sort of performance would see him go close, given that he can see out the trip on his first start here at Kenilworth. 

Last years Met third Puntas Arenas hasn't shown much lately and on pure form looks very much up against it. His recent prep was okay however, and he goes well at this track. This renewal looks stronger than last season, however, and he may need an awful lot of luck to be in the money once again. That all says he is a huge price and might be worth an each-way nibble if one is into it. Jet Explorer ran on strongly in the Queen's Plate, as he did last year already. He subsequently failed to fire in the Met and the same fate looms today as the trip seems simply beyond him. The other three big prices are hard to fancy. Though it is not unusual that one of those longshots finds somehow its way into the money. On form, Helderberg Blue could be the one.

Verdict: On paper it looks impossible to ignore the credentials of the two favourits. They are the one to beat, and it is hard to distinguish those two. Futura won well in the Queen's Plate, but my feeling is that he may have peaked too early, and that Louis The King will benefit most from the longer trip today. For that reason if I'd have to make decision between the two, I'd go with the tripe crown champ. That says, neither is a price to get involved with. Fair prices? Yes. But not generous, and no value. As mentioned above, the dark horse is without the shadow of a doubt Dynamic. The least exposed runner, improving nicely after his return, bred for the trip, loves it around this track, which good draw - he is a very big price. Too big to ignore.

Dynamic @ 14/1 Sportingbet - 5pts win

PREVIEW: Cape Derby (Grade 1)

One of the biggest race days of the South African racing calendar kicks off with the Cape Derby, which historically throws up some legendary winners. Last year it was Legislate, who moved on to win the Daily News and of course the Durban July, which in turn brought him the honour of becoming the 2014 horse of the year. Potentially we have a similar star on our hands in this years renewal, the question is only who is it? Checking the betting, this looks a one-horse race. But is it? 

Well, Act Of War, currently trading a 1/5 favourite to land the Derby, looks certainly the real deal as he's going for seven in a row today! The son of legendary sire Dynasty was only beaten on his racecourse debut, and then only by the narrowest of margins. Since then he never looked back, nicked in a couple of Graded races, with his biggest triumph to date, a decisive victory in the Cape Guineas. All those forms have also worked out very strongly, with plenty of subsequent winners. He looks right now a world class miler. Can he take this form to the next level over an additional two furlongs? That is the main question. Being a son of Dynasty surly helps, so he has enough stamina on his sire side for obvious reasons. Small doubts coming from his dam side though, with that line effectively never having anything produced over further than a mile. So far Act Of War looked special over trips ranging from 1.200m to 1.600m. He'll be hard to beat if he's taking well to the longer distance, that is for sure.

Realistically, there is only one real danger for Act Of War in this field , and that one is coming of course from Mike De Cock. His lightly raced Ertijaal is equally as exciting a colt as it gets. He had only three starts to date after having an injury troubled 2yo old career, and has been rather rushed to get here. He had three starts in the last two month, and one has to see how the takes this amount of racing. However he has been rapidly improving all the same. 

He was far too good on debut and second start, winning by a culminating 16 lengths those two races. Stepping into Listed company earlier this month, he turned on things in the final furlong to get up on the line. He was always going to win once in full flight and finished this task nicely. He looked green an immature all the same though, and will have learned plenty. He's a nice, scopy colt who has already proven his stamina over 2.000m and going back to this trip today, will be a bonus, since he is bred for middle-distance. 

Verdict: It is not worth to look anywhere else, trying to find the winner of this race. The rest of the field should simply not be good enough and it would be a major surprise to see any of those go even close. It seems rather a lottery to determine who else could make the frame. So concentrating on the two fancied runners makes sense. That says I'm going to have a nibble on Ertijaal. Simply for the reason that he has plenty of improvement left in him on what is only his fourth start. With a steep learning curve, and a trip to suit perfectly, he should be a close match for hot favourite Act Of War, as long as he takes the recent starts well. That says, Act Of War looks a special horse and if he stays the trip, will not be beaten. But odder things have happened in racing than a proven star miler fading over the additional two furlongs. 

Ertijaal @ 7/2 Ladbrokes - 5pts win

Quick Tip - Friday 30th January 2015

16.45 Wolverhampton: Sixties Queen @ 12/1 Coral - 5pts win

Sixties Queen went close lto here at Wolverhampton over when right up with the pace and leading the field into the home straight. She got just tired late and dropped away. First time blinkers where fitted and she was pretty keen in the early parts of the race which probably cost her a better finish. She can race off an almost identical mark, however has a 5lb claimer on board in this apprentice race which will bring her already featherweight further down. This last performance indicated that Sixties Queen has found back to form and since she is six pounds below her last winning mark (9f, Wolv) she should be poised to win soon. She is well drawn today, CP's are off again and I feel the apprentice claim can make the difference today for her.

Quick Tip: Thursday 29th January

18.40 Wolverhampton: Kakapuka @ 13/2 Coral - 5pts win

Kakapuka is on a very handy mark, now dropping another 3lb after an unlucky run at Lingfield lto when he was travelling well but was hampered badly in the home straight - I suspect he wouldn't have won but would have finished a good deal closer than he eventually did. 

Now 7lb below the last winning mark, he looks poised for finding back to the winning ways pretty soon. He has been disappointing since the summer in three runs, however this latest Lingfield performance seems a return to form and off a career lowest mark, I think he has a fine chance to go very close today as he showed earlier in 2014 that he is still able to marks in the high sixties.

Quick Tip: Wednesday 28th January 2015

2.10 Chelmsford: Tatting @ 25/1 Ladbrokes

Tatting has been in poor form since summer, however as a result is dropping down to a very handy mark, 5lb below his last winning mark. He drops in class today as well as in trip and that should help to see him being competitive again. Trainer Chris Dwyer has been in good form recently, saddling two winners of his last four runners in the last two weeks. If Tatting could somehow find back to something close to his best, he must be very competitive in this race.

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If you haven't seen it already, watch the performance of Able Friend to win the Group 1 Stewards Cup at Hong Kong last Saturday. It's pure horse racing beauty! He's likely to contest on Dubai World Cup night as his next target.

Quick Tip - Tuesday 27th January 2015

16.10 Southwell: Class 6 Handica, 7f - This is a very weak race and that pulls it wide open for anyone to win. Hard to trust the horses at the head of the market and for that reason I give the seasoned veteran Cyflymder a chance to run a big race. He hasn't won in five starts here at Southwell, however he performed well here in the past when placed, so the surface isn't an issue. 

He comes down to a more realistic mark again now, after he went up in the summer for success at Lingfield. He is 1lb above this last winning mark but has been a fine runner-up only half a lengths beaten off 2lb higher subsequently in August. So off 51 he is clearly in with a shout and his record over 7f gives him a very fair chance today to be a big runner in this field. I would expect him to share the lead for most parts of the race probably, but given the fact that he stays further, it may work to his advantage and he may be able to pull out a bit more from the front when it matters. 

Selection: Cyflymder @ 20/1 VC

Quick Tip - Monday 26th January 2015

15.40 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 7 furlongs - Lightly raced Mops Angel is prominent in the betting and for good reasons. A winner of her last race, she has been more than fair assessed by the handicappers and could do well win again. Stepping up in trip may not be a problem and she'll be hard to beat. Main danger could be veteran Smalljohn, though. He didn't look exactly like going back to the winning ways in recent starts, though he wasn't far beaten the last two and seems to regain some form at least. Dropping another 2lb in the mark, he is now as low as he hasn't been for five years, and since then he has always won off higher marks. Obviously he is not getting any younger and probably his true merit lies around a mark off 60-66 these days. But rated 63 at the moment, with a decent apprentice in the saddle and the drawn in box 1, he should have ideal conditions to adopt his front-running tactics. There aren't any excuses today and I expect him to outrun his price tag.

 Smalljohn @ 10/1 VC

Quick Tip: Wednesday, 21st January 2015

6.30 Kempton: Harry Hurricane @ 5/2 PP

Looks quite a good Handicap with some useful sorts. That says Blue Aegean is a very short favourite, despite winning really well at Chelmsford last weekend. Stepping up to 6f shouldn't pose a problem for him and turned out under penalty today means he can race off lower than he has to once the handicapper has assessed his mark, but of top weight in this field, it is not a given that he romps home. Recent CD maiden winner Volunteer Point looks a very useful filly and her opening mark is more than fair. She ought to go very close. But I feel Harry Hurricane is clearly the one to beat. He got finally off the mark in a Wolverhampton maiden over 7f earlier this month, which looks useful form with the runner-up winning a maiden subsequently. The drop in trip today is fine I think and his maiden form as a juvenile when he finished runner-up in a Kempton 5f maiden as well as 3rd in a Newmarket maiden is very strong, given what the horses in front of him did. His current looks open to explore further.

Quick Tip: Kempton, Sunday 18th January 2015

15.05 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f - This looks pretty open and a couple of the bigger prices seem overpriced, but mostly I'm interested in My Meteor. Currently a 66/1 shot, he caught my eye with some interesting performances lately and with a slipping mark as well as a 3lb claimer in the saddle, he may outrun this big price today. The trip is a question mark. He won over 6f and often he gives the impression that the minimum trip is too sharp for him these days, but in fact the majority of his wins came over 5f. His recent performance at Southwell over 6f would indicate that the additional furlong is too much for him, as he travelled right to the final furlong marker like one with a big chance, just to fade badly. On the other side, in recent starts over 5f, he was badly outpaced. In November, he produced over that trip argubly his best recent performance, when he travelled eye-catchingly into to the home straight and finished extremely well in 3rd from well off the pace, indicating that an additional furlong would suit. That says if he can reproduce this sort of form over 6f at Kempton today, he can be in the money. 

My Meteor E/W @ 66/1 VC

Preview: Ladbrokes Handicap, Lingfield

2.35 Lingfield: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

Miracle Of Medinah: Group 3 winning juvenile, disappointing last year, though was placed in Listed event once. Won on AW as 2yo, now step up to mile needs to bring out improvement. Not unlikely to get trip but looks on high enough mark.

Tigers Tale: Progressive on the All-Weather. Won couple of times last season and ended year with fine runner-up over CD. Fair & square beaten that day though and career highest required.

Steelriver: Fine second lto at Kempton over 7f. Career highest required. Has never won over 1m in nine attempts. Though once second over 10f.

Melvin The Grate: Improving sort, won well with plenty in hand lto over CD. Up 7lb in the mark, career highest required.

Beach Bar: Still lightly raced, progressive gelding. Unlucky over CD lto when beaten on the line while attempting to make all. Allowed to race off same mark.

Claim The Roses: Lightly raced and progressive on AW. Winner of two races, yet to win beyond 6f but strong staying 2^nd over 7f. Decent return to track at Southwell lto. New trip may bring out improvement.

Lunar Deity: Progressive on AW. Won last two and neck beaten lto. 1lb out off handicap & steep step up in grade. But may have still more to offer on this surface. Likely up with pace. 

Verdict: Tricky race, despite a clear favourite at the head of the market. Melvin The Grate is rightly very popular with punters given his progressive form and strong recent course and distance win. Seven pounts up for that looks fair and it wouldn't surprise to see him go close again. But he is a short enough price in a race that is by no means only about one horse. Beach Bar currently 5/1 is a very interesting alternative. Still lightly raced, he is the winner of a maiden and a narrowly beaten runner-up on the All-Weather in two starts, both over course and distance here at Lingfield. When last seen he had his own way up on front and pulled out more when heavily under pressure in the home straight. Though an exciting handicap debutant got the better of him in the final strides. Beach Bar gets a chance from the handicapper to race off the same mark again and while this represents a step up in class today, he may still be able to improve again and must rate a big danger to the favourite with his profile and weight. Lunar Deity is one pound out off the weights but has a fair chance to run big as the bottom weight after a narrow defeat at Chelmsford last weekend. He is probably right up with the pace and if he can transfer his fine All-Weather profile into this better grade, he'll be thereabouts. The three top rated horses (bar the favourite) look all likely to be found out on their current handicap mark, however good runs for Miracle Of Medinah and Tigers Tale wouldn't surprise. 

Still completely unexposed over this trip is the lightly raced Claim The Roses. He hasn't excelled on turf at all, but has been progressive on the All-Weather. A fine winner at Kempton over 6f and an eye-catching runner-up over 7f subsequently in autumn 2013 proved that he is talented. However he clearly had problems afterwards, with only one run since then last summer with another break until back at Southwell towards the end of December last month. Then dropped back to 6f he ran well enough considering the little racing he had for a while as well as for his fibresand debut and that may set him up well for today. Stepping up to 1m, a trip he has never tried before, however something that looks not unlikely to suit on pedigree. Worth a try at a big price for me.

Beach Bar @ 5/1 William Hill - 5pts win

Claim The Roses @20/1 Ladbrokes - 5pts win

Friday Blog - 16th January 2015

4.45 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 12f - Wide open race, many exposed runners, so it is obvious why Steve Rogers is heading the market. A son of the late Montjeu, stepping up considerably on handicap debut - he must have a really good chance to go close in this field. A mark of 62 is however not particularly lenient, for what he has shown to date and I feel the expected improvement is already very much reflected in the price. Arashi has a chance to follow-up on a recent strong performance, with the weight in favour today. However the drop in trip may not suit all too well. Most interesting runner is the lightly raced five year old gelding Sheila's Heart. He is still a maiden but showed promise in most of his races. 

The drop in trip back to 12f should be ideal today and with the mark slipping further, he is one to take seriously with cheek-pieces fitted for the first time. They may well make a difference, and if they can squeeze out just a bit improvement, then Sheila's Heart will go close. The booking of 7lb claimer Aaron Jones is a big bonus. Not only is his claim a benefit, but this young man is red hot at the moment and riding extremely well for his weight allowance. I expect Sheila's Heart to leave all his ordinary forms behind today and be right there when it matters. 

Sheila's Heart @10/1 William Hill

Wednesday's Blog

We talked about Tempus Temporis yesterday already. He was a value selection on Sundays opening Chelmsford card. Since winners don't come by easy, one has to celebrate if there is something to celebrate. So enjoy the replay of the race and see the impressive performance of this promising Godolphin prospect with your own eyes.

No luck yesterday at Southwell. My two selections did give me a run for the money - to a certain extend at least - but ultimately it is about getting the head over the line first. First selection Ametrine travelled really nicely on the outside for a long time. She clearly takes well to the surface. However she got very tired inside the final two furlongs and was effectively pulled up. I wouldn't quite give up on her yet. With this run under her belt, she may strip fitter and go really well the next time. However the way she almost refused to finish her race yesterday, is alarming and could also mean that she has had enough of the game. Seychelloise on the other hand finished well - however found one rival too good for her. I think she did way too much early on from her draw, was pushed forward and travelled throughout wide. One could also say she simply ran to her level of form, which is a mid-sixties filly, lightly framed with no scope. 

Not much going on today. Some okay All-Weather racing at Lingfield and Kempton. The usual mid-week stuff. Mostly low-grade. Which is not bad if you like it. I do like it, particularly Kempton. Fancy a couple on the card, but will restrict myself to one bet only.

6.10 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap - 7f - Picks Pinta is a rather consistent individual who looked a bit in the grip of the handicapper recently. Down to 72 now, he is however on a mark he is well up to I feel. His best performances came when he was right up with the pace, which was not the case in most of his last starts. So it is interesting to see him fitted with blinkers for the first time today. They may sharpen him up and I would imagine that reverting to positive tactics will see him go really close, and possible achieving a career highest.

Picks Pinta @ 16/1 William Hill