PREVIEW: J & B Met (Grade 1)

This is the big one - South Africa's premier race over 2.000m, and only overshadowed in its importance by the Durban July. And what a renewal it promises it to be. Now, unfortunately, it lost a bit of its excitement due to the scratching of horse of the year Legislate. The champ suffered from a viral infect which caused him to run below par in the Queen's Plate earlier this month and wouldn't have been ready in time for the Met. While that is unfortunate, the 2015 J&B Met still remains an intriguing contest. We have South Africa's two second-highest rated horses in the field, the brilliant Futura, and last years triple crown winner Louis The King. Those two are expected to fight it out, and since they finished first and second in South Africa's premier mile race last month, it'll be very interesting to see how it pans out today, now over the additional two furlongs. 

Futura was last season the up and coming superstar, hyped throughout the year and particularly before the Durban July, without having ever won at the highest level. However a brilliant third in the July, and a subsequent well deserved Grade 1 triumph, proved that he is no flash in the pan. In fact he has trained on and is back now even stronger it seems. Earlier this month he was able to land the prestigious Queen's Plate, despite a troubled preparation, and over a seemingly trip short of his optimum. Coming from off the pace in a slowly run race, he got a no-nonsense ride to prevail. Considering that he is thought to be better over further, and that the Plate was only a prep, one would hope that he is able to progress again towards the Met, with the additional 400 meters a positive. He's drawn in the middle, right beside his potentially closest pursuer - Louis The King. 

Louis The King. The 2014 Triple Crown winner (Gauteng Guineas, the SA Classic and the SA Derby over trips from 7f-12f) had the Met as his main target in sight since coming back from a seasonal break. Potentially he had the perfect prep in the Queen's Plate, when he finished a close runner-up behind Futura. That day he travelled really well, but in contrast to winner Futura, didn't get a clear passage and had to sit and suffer until late. Once In the clear he finished like a train without being really touched. Connections couldn't have been happier. He didn't get a hard race but clearly showed excellent form over a trip definitely too short of his optimum. He'll be enjoying the 10f trip today and looks the one to beat to my eyes. Class, heart & stamina - he's got it all.

On pure form, it looks hard to look beyond these two. They are top of their generation and with Legislate out, either of those two has the huge chance to win this prestigious race. However there are a couple of pretenders who are worth mentioning at least. Geoff Woodruff's Telina has been the focus of some good ante-post money and trades currently as third favourite - which looks probably a bit surprising, given that he hasn't won in over a year, and never in Grade 1 company. However there is no doubt that on his day, this gelding can be very competitive and a recent fifth in the Queen's Plate was promising. He wasn't quite speedy enough over the mile that day, however wasn't beaten by far and looked to me always like one who actually would enjoy the 2.000m trip. With a good draw today, he should run well.

Justin Snaith won't be saddling his stable star Legislate today, however has five other runners in the line-up and most of them have good credentials. With Arion he's got last years Derby third here today. This four year old colt seems to hit form since he won a prep race a fortnight ago. He's a bit to find on the ratings and this is much tougher today, but he has a good draw which helps his positive tactics. Stable mate Dynamic is also one who likes to be up with the pace, and who enjoys a fine draw today as well. Already a five year old, he's still pretty lightly raced with only eight career starts under his belt. That is because he lost almost two seasons due to injuries. He finished an excellent runner-up in the Derby back in 2013 behind smart Capetown Noir, but then leg injuries hit him badly and he was thought to be unable to race ever again. He got plenty of time out in the field and healed eventually. A little miracle. In September last year he was back and has taken really off since then. Two rather easy tasks with perfect execution followed by a Grade 2 success in December. He has had his time off since then but that is because he is best fresh and Snaith wanted to ensure he is the fresh horse today, giving him the best possible chance to run to his best. No doubt, this Dynamic is the dark horse in the race. Least exposed, with only one start over 2.000m, which was his fine Derby second. He's bred for this trip and is for obvious reasons one who could easily spoil the party. 

Silvano son Power King is another one who is unexposed over 2.000m. He had only one start so far, raced most of the time over shorter, but has been able to stay 2.400m on the sand when runner-up in the Winter Derby. He hasn't quite shown this class on turf yet, but has potential to progress. Veteran Gold Onyx is a consistent runner over various trips. However he's best known for strong staying performances, like when he was a close third in last years Gold Cup. He would hope for plenty of pace to bring his stamina into play. Killua Castle has had even more career starts - 32 - but seems to get better with age. He has always shown his best over slightly shorter, but finished a very good runner-up in the Sommer Cup last November behind Louis The King. A repeat of that sort of performance would see him go close, given that he can see out the trip on his first start here at Kenilworth. 

Last years Met third Puntas Arenas hasn't shown much lately and on pure form looks very much up against it. His recent prep was okay however, and he goes well at this track. This renewal looks stronger than last season, however, and he may need an awful lot of luck to be in the money once again. That all says he is a huge price and might be worth an each-way nibble if one is into it. Jet Explorer ran on strongly in the Queen's Plate, as he did last year already. He subsequently failed to fire in the Met and the same fate looms today as the trip seems simply beyond him. The other three big prices are hard to fancy. Though it is not unusual that one of those longshots finds somehow its way into the money. On form, Helderberg Blue could be the one.

Verdict: On paper it looks impossible to ignore the credentials of the two favourits. They are the one to beat, and it is hard to distinguish those two. Futura won well in the Queen's Plate, but my feeling is that he may have peaked too early, and that Louis The King will benefit most from the longer trip today. For that reason if I'd have to make decision between the two, I'd go with the tripe crown champ. That says, neither is a price to get involved with. Fair prices? Yes. But not generous, and no value. As mentioned above, the dark horse is without the shadow of a doubt Dynamic. The least exposed runner, improving nicely after his return, bred for the trip, loves it around this track, which good draw - he is a very big price. Too big to ignore.

Dynamic @ 14/1 Sportingbet - 5pts win