Hennessy Gold Cup 2014

Hennessy Gold Cup 2014, a set on Flickr.

A selection of photos I've taken on the 2014 Hennessy Gold Cup Day at Leopardstown.

BBOTD - Wednesday 12th February 2012

16.45 Lingfield: Cathedral @ 7/2 Bet365 - 3pts win

Cathedral seems a very interesting runner for a new yard tomorrow due to a couple of reasons: First of all I thought he run quite well in his most recent start of a new career lowest mark. He missed slightly the break, was than extremely keen and pulling hard for quite a while until settling in midfield. He travelled then like an absolute dream, on the bridle until 2f out but I felt his jockey asked too late for an effort since Cathedral certainly lacks a "push button acceleration" and hit a flat spot when everyone one else was pretty much getting first run on him. Eventually he got asked for full effort inside the final furlong and he finished the race fine enough, without being too impressive though. But taking everything into account I think it was a decent enough performance. What's interesting tomorrow in the Apprentice race: He gets another pound off the mark and has an extremely talented 3lb claimer in the saddle who is also absolutely flying at the moment. So effectively Cathedral can race off a four pounds lower mark than the last time and that must give him a tremendous chance to win this race. Not to forget that he is still generally lightly raced for a five year old and didn't look entirely talent free as a younger horse.

Another one for Saturday the 8th...

15.45 Lingfield: Noble Deed @ 12/1 William Hill - 1pt win

Another one from my list for today, after long thinking I feel I want to be small on Noble Deed despite the step up in class. Usually he is best when he is ridden close to the pace and I expect this to be happen from his good draw today. Then he must have every chance to go close after he showed allot in his last run over CD when he had things pretty much against him. He had a good draw but got hampered soon after the start and lost position, so that he was forced to settle in rear. In fact he turned for home last and had to go widest around in order to get a clear run. He finished the like a train, staying on the best from all the horses coming from off the pace despite having the worst position. Form works out not badly already with the winner following up with a close 2nd and 4th winning well. Noble Deed was really progressive in 2013 and while he hasn't won on the All-Weather yet I feel there could be still more to come off his current mark.

Bet for Saturday 8th of February 2014

Novabridge was a non-runner...

15.10 Lingfield: Moonday Sun @ 7/2 Bet365 - 3pts win

 Moonday Sun gave a big impression last weekend in a similar race when he overcame the widest draw to be right up with the pace soon after the start, which cost a bit of energy to get this position. He travelled well enough throughout the race and tried to kick on turning for home, he took up the lead around half a furlong out for the first time and fought hard back coming under pressure from a bunch of horses, he couldn't match the burst of speed of the eventual winner though. They surely went a good clip in the race however and it was a really nice performance to finish 2nd. He step up to 10f tomorrow which should suit on pedigree and with a better draw he should get a nice position close to the pace early on and have every chance to run a big race, despite a rise of 2lb in the mark.

Ante-Post: 2.000 Guineas 2014

Yes, Cheltenham is looming but I have to admit my attention goes already way beyond that: Right towards the first classic of the season - the 2.000 Guineas at Newmarket! This years renewal looks an extremely strong and deep one, with plenty of exciting horses emerging as potential candidates, in the names of Kingman, Australia, Toormore or Kingston Hill. They are all really promising colts, with plenty of ability, but I feel one candidate is underestimated and deserves stronger recognition. The horse I'm talking about is the Aiden O'Brien trained War Command. Why do I think so? I'll tell you.

Pedigree:

War Command is beautifully bred. He is a son of War Front. This US sire made a big name for himself in 2013, mainly through the names of War Command and of course Declaration of War - the likable, hardy winner of the Queen Anne and Juddmonte International Stakes, who was also a close third the Breeders Cup Classis at the end of the season. War Front usually stands for speed but his offspring can also develop into top class milers. War Command's dam is the Woodbine EP Taylor Stakes winning mare Wandering Star. She is a winner of four of her seven career starts, and she was a Listed winner over a mile and a Group 2 winner over 10 furlongs. In don't want to go much deeper into pedigree analyses because I think it isn't really essential. What this short summery proves however: War Command is lovely bred indeed - by a top class sire and out of a really good mare. He has speed and he has a bit of stamina in his blood, but most importantly he has perfect miler pedigree. And that brings me to another interesting point:

Racing Performance:

War Command was extremely successful as a two year old. He won a Leopardstown maiden on his debut, and only nine days later destroyed a deep field in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot over 6 furlongs! So War Command was fast enough to win the premier 6f race for two year olds on his second only start. He was disappointing on his next start at the Curragh, but something was amiss that day - and in all fairness, that form doesn't look to badly on paper either, since the winner went on to land the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes later on the year. War Command put the record straight when appearing next in the Group 2 Futurity Stakes at the Curragh, stepping up to 7 furlongs for the first time. In all fairness, this wasn't the strongest field, but one had to be impressed with the way War Command accelerated from 2f out, to win with authority and pretty easily in the end. He went on to win the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket afterwards. Again, there might have been stronger renewals of this race, and War Command might not appeared to be flashy in the way he won the race either. But he won it well, he travelled fine until 2f out, he beat subsequent Breeders Cup winner Outstrip decisively, while he probably wasn't all that well suited by the slow ground actually. Yet he won and seemed to have absolutely no problem with the unique test that the Rowley Mile provides. 

Summery: 

I can't see what is not to like about War Command. He is progresssive, he is a multiple Group winner over 6-7 furlong, he has Newmarket course form thanks to the Dewhurst win and he should be well suited by the step up to one mile according to his pedigree. Surely he ticks all the right boxes for the 2.000 Guineas and personally I can see him being very hard to beat on the day. Therefore his price looks big enough and I'm happy to invest a bit of ante-post money.

2.000 Guineas Ante-Post: War Command @ 8/1 William Hill - 2pts win

Bets for Friday 7th February

17.00 Wolverhampton: Novabridge @ 7/2 Bet365 - 4pts win

Novabridge appeared to be extremely unlucky in his most recent start at Lingfield. He got hampered right after the start, had to settle in rear as a consequence and got then slightly hampered coming around the home turn again, the jockey had to take a pull. The nightmare didn't end here as Novabridge didn't get a clear run approaching the home straight, and when finally a gap opened over 1f out he finished nicely without getting asked for everything. With a clear run he would have gone very close no doubt, and as he gets another pound off the mark he looks to be weighted to win, down to his last AW winning mark too.

19.00 Wolverhampton: Oratorios Joy @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Oratorios Joy was just denied to win last time out by a completely unexposed horse that was way ahead of the mark. But that aside, she finished a strong second. She travelled strongly in midfield and made an impressive move on the widest outside from 3f out. She was almost on bridle until approaching the final furlong, that well she was travelling, but couldn't match the burst of speed of the eventual winner. Still a big performance. She is higher than her last winning mark, but she had only two starts over 12f so far and this last strong performance to her name over this trip, so she could be able to win such a race of her current mark.

A Happy Hammer!

That was some "Happy Hammer" yesterday! As our selection with the same name took the race by its horns and made a brave move 3f out kicking on turning for home. He soon came clear leading the field and never gave his advantage away even though a fast finishing rival almost spoiled the party. The Happy Hammer took advantage of his slipping mark as I hoped before the race and his drift in the betting market to 10/1 was a welcome bonus thanks to BOG. He is our third winner in the last three days, which is a huge relief and a clear turn of form after weeks and even month of despair. On a day like this it doesn't really matter that our second selection Tanojin run like a donkey. 

After all it seems likely that February could be finally a month in profit again after five disappointing losing month on the bounce. It really was a tough time, particularly most parts of the second half of 2013. Profit and ROI figures slipped dramatically and I decided enough is enough, I need a break. After a two months sabbatical time off racing I returned to action in January and things didn't improve at all, to be fair. But I knew I did good work and things would turn around eventually. I also made slight adjustments to my betting and the way I find selections. I don't want to go to much into the detail as it is still early days but I have to admit that I probably didn't take the unique conditions of All-Weather racing as much into account as I should have. I feel the last couple of days proved that I might be finally on the right road as most of my selections really run well. Long may it continue! But what is most important: After around one and a half years offering my selections and tracking their success on this site, it all is still green - so in profit! Well, not quite where I want to be, obviously. But more than 70 units profit is not too bad even though the ROI is something I have to work on. But anyone who takes betting a bit more serious than the usual gambler that you find in the bookie shops, knows how difficult it is to make this game pay in the long term. But that is what it's all about: Success in the long term, including patience and discipline. I haven't been always as patient and disciplined as I should have, but still: 289 bets, 71.37pts profit: That is long term profit. And I'm proud of it.  

The stats are updated now, and all past results are for everyone to see in this doc as usual: http://goo.gl/pT8qW

Bets for Wednesday the 5th of February 2014

14.30 Lingfield: Tanojin @ 20/1 Paddy Power - 1pt win

Tanojin was eye-catching on his handicap debut over sharp 6f at Wolverhampton. It was a bit rough over 5f out for him, yet he travelled strongly for the rest of the race, made a big move on the outside from 3f out and finished the race strongly in second, just the front-runner with the run of the race was not to peg back. He stepped up to 7f at Lingfield lto, trailed the field and had an awful lot to do turning for home, when he also got slightly bumped approaching the home straight and soon after even more so badly hampered, which all together robbed him any chance to finish the race better than he did. He's better than this form suggest in my mind, even though that race looks a strong one, considering how well it worked out so far. Further step up in trip should suit, tomorrow over the mile, and while the favourite looks extremely hard to beat turned out quickly under a penalty, i still feel Tanojin is a very big price for an unexposed young horse that showed some promise and should improve for the new trip. The smaller field should suit too and while I'm not the biggest fan of William Twiston Davis, his 3lb claim is a nice bonus here tomorrow and not to forget that he has ridden 3 winners from 7 rides for Mick Channon.

16.40 Lingfield: The Happy Hammer @ 8/1 Boylesports - 2pts win

The Happy Hammer comes down to a really handy looking mark since he got another pound off since his last pretty strong and eye-catching run. He raced in midfield at Kempton that day, looked well enough approaching the home turn but was then a clear run denied, in fact he had absolutely nowhere to go, until almost the final furlong marker, when space finally emerged and he powered home strongly, however the race was over at that point. Yet this was a very nice performance confirming he could soon win a race of now 4lb below hist last winning mark. Add the useful 3lb claim of Robert Tart and The Happy Hammer looks really dangerous tomorrow.

Hill Fifty Four not denied in 2014 Met...

Hill Fifty Four was narrowly denied in the J&B Met almost exactly twelve month ago when 80/1 shocker Martial Eagle collared him on the line. This time it was his big moment - finally! In the capable hands of Anton Marcus he overcame his wide draw quickly to take up the lead soon after the start. Nobody wanted else wanted to press on so that Hill Fifty Four had the run of the race from the front and could dictate the tempo in a way it suited him best. Marcus delivered a peach of a ride on the five year old gelding and didn't panic when the Captain Al son seemed to hung to his right. He had enough in the tank to find another gear when it mattered and surged home to a decisive victory in the premier 2.000 meter race of the South African racing calendar. 

The well backed favourite Master Of My Fate got going way too late but came from well off the pace and stayed on nicely. He's a better horse than this form suggest. Second favourite Jackson was luckless in one of these big races once again. He trailed the field and faced an impossible task. Queen's Plate winner Capetown Noir didn't get home over the 10f trip.

Bets for Tuesday 4th of February 2014

Maggie Pink won it easily as the clear favourite. Mountain Range ran a cracker but got going too late, finished 3rd. And Birdman ran a stinker but what a strange race that was! Have to say front-runner seems to have a huge advantage at Wolverhampton at the moment...

15.30 Lingfield: While You Wait @ 10/3 Paddy Power - 5pts win

While You Wait ran an absolute cracker in a claimer recently on his first start after a two month long break. He had a huge disadvantage on the huge to the eventual winner and long odds on favourite La Estrella but came with a big run on the outside from 2f out and seemed to have the race on his mercy, but the jockey seemed a bit too confident and just asked While You Wait too late for everything, while La Estrella by a neck in the end. He clarly gets the 2m trip though and he showed a fine performance over course and distance off a similar mark back in November when he finished 2nd. That day he travelled like a dream, but the eventual winner got first run from the front which made the difference. They pulled clear a long way from the rest of the field and this form looks good. I expect him really to score tomorrow as he also has still not too many miles on the clock and it doesn't take too much to win this race.

16.30 Lingfield: Starlight Princess @ 7/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Not often that I like three horses in one and the same race and then in a rather small field. But I have Aramadyh on my list as well as Frederic Chopin and it would be a pity if one these two would win now as for price reasons I dismiss them both and go with the third horse on my list: Starlight Princess. This filly is hugely progressive and showed some spectacular performances in the recent weeks and month. She usually travelles strongly and then produces a nice turn of foot to come from the back of the field. She was a big eye-catcher on many occasions before, quite so in her penultimate start when she won it on the line coming from an impossible looking position and she clearly confirmed that she is up to her revised mark over a new and longer trip only four days ago. The race was slowly run and she travelled at the back of the field, having an awful lot to do turning for home. The progressive Mark Johnston runner wasn't to catch but Starlight Princess travelled strongly as always and finished a fine third, while getting a slight bump inside the final furlong and shifting slightly too. She drops in class tomorrow, can run of the same mark, is still unexposed over ten furlongs and should go really well.

Bets on Monday 3rd February 2014

4th and 2nd today. Both ran well but not well enough to end my agony. 

15.10 Wolverhampton: Maggie Pink @ 7/2 Bet365 - 3pts win

Two very decent performances from Maggie Pink in better class following her decisive win over course and distance in December in a similar race. She's only four pounds higher in the mark now and I feel she can win a race like this off that kind of mark. She was really good at Southwell in a hot class 4 Handicap where she set a rattling pace and finished a fine 3rd in the end. This form works out exceptionally well too. One week ago at Kempton she overcame a wide draw to take up the early lead setting a good pace once again. She tired badly inside the final furlong as a result but still held on as good as possibe. That was a strong race but she drops in class tomorrow and can go from pole position. 

17.10 Wolverhampton: Birdman @ 5/1 Paddy Power - 3pts win

I was extremely impressed with Birdman at Lingfield two weeks ago when he came from last to first in a big field having an awful lot to do turning for home but he won going away in the end and like a horse way ahead of his mark. He was a pretty decent 2yo and as high rated as 108 but wasn't able to confirm the promise. He slipped down the mark and ranks down to 89 and ran well at Kempton off this mark, while unseating his rider in the next start and then showed this tremendous performance at Lingfield. Up to 93 now which looks still more than fair and he should go well again. 

16.30 Kempton: Mountain Range @ 5/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Mountain Range comes down to a handy mark again and he appeared to be pretty luckless in his latest start over 10f at Kempton. He was trailing a big field which is never an advantage over Kempton's 10f course and so it was here. Turning for home he not only faced an impossible task, no he got also stuck in traffic until 1f out when he got a bit of space and ran on extremely well. He's only 1lb above his last winning mark which came over course and distance back in June and I expect a big run from him.

Bets for Sunday 2nd of January

16.50 Kempton: Song Light @ 14/1 Paddy Power - 1pt win

Song Light was a good deal beaten back in 3rd place lto but I felt he ran a much better race than the bare result suggested. He took a keen hold for most parts of the first half to the race but then appeared to travell like a dream in rear approaching home turn. He hit a bit of aflat spot for a moment around 2f out, but this was pretty much down to the fact that the pace was slow more most parts of the race and that the leading horses were able to kick on and sustain their effort without tiring. The first two + 4th placed horse travelled prominent.y or from the front. Song Ligh ran on really strongly though, in fact finishing strongly as the only one from off the pace. Considering all of that it has to be said that this was an excellent performance actually. He still didn't have too many races under his belt and is potentially on a good mark.

17.20 Kempton: Russian Ice @ 11/2 Paddy Power - 3pts win

Russian Ice was pretty unlucky three weeks ago here at Kempton when she had to overcome the widest draw but most importantly got badly hampered over 3f out by a shifting horse, She clearly lost momentum at a crucial stage of the race and had to find her rhythm again, what she did eventually when she finished strongly in 3rd in the end, which makes this a really good performance. She can race off the same mark again tomorrow, which is 4lb below her last winning mark and with four course and distance wins so far here she should go really well again, with a better draw and hopefully a clear run. It wouldn't take to much to win this.