5.40 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f
Democretes: Won last time in 2011 and never won off higher than 78 and never beyond 6f, however been placed on numerous occasions off much higher up to 1m. Down to more realistic mark and down in grade, though didn’t quite excel on AW yet.
Brigliadoro: Still not too many miles on the clock, won over CD off 10lb lower in October last year. Shoulder beaten over CD lto, up 5lb in the mark. More improvement required again today.
History Book: Lightly raced, won debut over 9f at Wolverhampton two years ago. Change of tactics saw him go close over 1m lto at Lingfield, when making all and tiring very late. Drop to 7f for the first time, 5lb claimer booked.
Stonefield Flyer: Two times CD winner. Couldn’t follow up on November success in last two but ran with credit and still on fair mark. Won off higher in the past.
Eastern Dragon: Soft ground loving gelding, also goes well on AW. Hasn’t been seen since Ocrober when 3rd at Newmarket. Return to AW interesting and won after break in the past, but on career highest mark and up against it.
Rouge Nuage: Improved on AW last year and won over 7f at Wolverhampton LTO. Likely to be up with pace. Career highest mark to defy.
Marjong: Seemed to find 7f too far in the past, however consistent when last seen end of summer last year. Chance on good handicap mark.
Pactolus: Lightly raced one time maiden winner over CD last winter. Ran okay since then in 2014 without winning. Back after break and not impossible that he has still more to offer.
Verdict: The lightly raced Pactolus looks an interesting prospect if fully fit. He has potential to improve from what he has shown in the past and as the bottom weight with a 7lb claimer on board, he has any right to be a prominent choice in the betting. The fact that he hasn't won since getting off the mark in a very poor Kempton maiden is something to worry about though, in a tough competition, as this is. Therefore his short price doesn't appeal to me at all. Brigliadoro looks a very fair price, considering his fine form. He may still have a bit improvement left in him and his recent close second proves that he is in good order. However up in the mark by five pounds for this recent performance makes the task more difficult today. He is nonetheless one who should have the ability to go close, yet the improvement is very much reflected in the price already.
Stonefield Flyer won off higher than his current mark in the past and was back in form with a CD success in November. He couldn't quite live up to his revised mark, even though he ran well enough. He's got any chance to be thereabouts today, but it is a question mark if he is really better than an 80 rated animal these days. Marjong gets a chance from the handicapper and a fair run is on the card if he can stay the trip, which he found rather beyond him in three starts to date. He's been consistent though, and therefore needs to enter calculations. Eastern Dragon could be interesting back on the All-Weather now, however he appears not handicapped to win. The top weight Democretes finds it tough to win and his record speaks against him in this competitive field.
Godolphin's History Book in contrast is one who makes plenty of appeal to me. A consistent performer, goes well on the All-Weather and looked a ready winner last time at Lingfield until caught in the dying strides. A drop to 7f for the first time is certainly interesting and with new positive tactics could be exactly what he needs to get finally his head in front again. He is still lightly races with a bit improvement possible to come, and with a fair handicap mark to play with as well as a decent 5lb claimer booked for the ride, he is the one to side with considering his tasty price tag in the betting which looks too big.
History Book @ 11/2 VC - 5pts win
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