Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Betting: Wednesday 26th November 2014

Result from the 2.35 Lingfield: Lyn Valley 2nd, Dominandros 3rd. Favourite won it from the front. 

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19.30 Dundalk: Conditions Stakes (3yo+) 


Akasaka: Multiple course and distance winner. Beaten in 7f claimer under very favourable conditions. First start for new yard now.
Dolce N Karama: Once 4th behind Kingston Hill in Racing Post Throphy. Not fulfilling promise subsequently, still a maiden but gutsy runner-up in 10f Leopardstown Handicap last month. Drop in trip not sure to suit.
Camakasi: Broke maiden tag with impressive success over CD earlier this month. Strengths of that form a question mark though. Looks improving and more to come.
Doc Holliday: CD winner and excellent form in recent weeks, winner of big Curragh handicap, followed up with another strong performance in hot race. Bit to do on weights probably and trip slight concern.
Artistic Integrity: Good winner of 7f Handicap at Gowran Park this summer, followed up with third at Leopardstown. Disappointed when last seen. Hast to prove stamina. 

Verdict: Wide open race and you can pick holes into the credentials of each and every individual. Probably the one that is easiest to rule out is Artistic Integrity who does look up against it and unlikely to stay the trip. Recent maiden winner Camakasi heads the market currently and looks a solid chance, given the visual impressive performance lto. It is a concern that it took him eleven races to win, though, and the form of the maiden looks pretty poor, so it is debatable what is really worth and today will be a much better indicator. Aksaka's track record is excellent but on form he is opposable and it is a major worry that he wasn't able to win a claimer over CD which he was entitled to win on ratings and weights lto. The change of yard might help though. Dolce N Karama once promising 2yo career hasn't concluded in a progressive classic season and while he has done better lately in handicaps, the drop in trip is a real worry as he looks more of a stayer than a miler. However if he gets an easy lead up on front, it is not impossible that he can outstay his rivals. Doc Holliday may has to give weight away to the three year olds and doesn't appear to be well weighted, but on form he is the best horse in the race. He was an impressive winner of a low grade handicap at the Curragh over 7f this summer, clearly having loads in hand. And he followed up with a strong performance in a hot Curragh Handicap over 1m where he didn't have things going quite his way. This rates a very strong piece of form in my mind and the only slight concern is that the trip here today could stretch his stamina. He has won over 1m before, but I suspect his optimum is 7f. Nonetheless, he rates a big chance in this field and looks overpriced against the other runners. 

Doc Holliday @ 4/1 Betfred - 5pts win

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