BBOTD - 1st May 2014

15.25 Redcar: Dream Walker @ 3/1 Coral - 4pts win

Eye-catching second at Yarmouth recently, travelling very well in midfield but not getting a clear run, basically stuck in traffic until switching wide. The eventual winner had the run of the race, while Dream Walker clearly had not, which made the difference in the end. He still finished a nice and easy second under hands and heels, not far beaten. He can race off the same mark tomorrow, the drop in trip should be a problem as he has won over 7f in the past, and the soft ground will be very much to his advantage. He was very progressive last year and he seems not finished yet.

Selections: Tuesday 29th April 2014

Really disappointing yesterday. Particularly Minley who was a bad drifter and had absolutely no chance at all once the race went to the stage where it really mattered. Starlit Cantara did perform okay finishing 3rd, but obviously not in a way I had hoped, as I was quite confident she would be a good deal ahead of her current mark. Turned out not to be. Shocking month so far this April. 

17.25 Nottingham: Inciting Incident @ 7/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Still generally lightly raced, and he showed a much improved display last time out at Lingfield. He was very keen in the early parts of the race and made a big move to take over the lead after the first two furlongs, he travelled really well turning for home but got then badly hampered from the eventual first and second. He kept going to hold on for third. He drops in trip, which shouldn't be an issue considering how much early speed he showed in his last race, even though he appeared outpaced at Wolverhampton before - which might have been down to being his seasonal reappearance though. I think now back on turf he deserves another chance.

20.20 Newcastle: Exotic Guest @ 12/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Interesting on his most recent performance which came at Pontefract: He chased leaders, travelled well enough for a long time and looked in with a big chance, but got eventually bumped and short of room several times when turning for home, which practically ended the race for him. He couldn't get a run and was eased. So he is probably better than the bare result suggest. Even more so he is down to a very handy mark, won the last time - and only career win yet - over course and distance last year of a 3lb higher mark. Soft ground today will suit as well. No excuses if he doesn't perform well today.

Selections: Monday 28th April 2014

14.10 Kempton: Starlit Cantara @ 9/2 Bet365 - 4pts win

Starlit Cantara is an obvious chance here after her most recent run and the fact that the handicapper left her mark unchanged makes her a filly very hard to beat here. After a winter break she reappeared at Kempton three weeks ago and she travelled well enough for most parts of the race. She made nice headway from 2f out, challenging the leader hard. That horse though found more and more, having the run of the race from the front in a slowly run race. Half a furlong out though it looked as if Starlit Cantara could finally be able to pass the leader, trying to slip through on the inside. This move ended abruptly when the leader shifted towards the rail shutting the door and the jockey on Starlit Cantara had to take a hard pull to avoid a crash. Now, it isn't said that she would have passed the leader indeed, but she was robbed the chance to have every chance at least. Considering that the eventual winner followed up with another success, it is to assume that Starlit Cantara must be well in tomorrow, since she can race off the same mark again on her second seasonal outing, over the same course and distance in a rather poor class 6 handicap. A good draw is another bonus here.

16.10 Kempton: Thecornishcowboy @ 14/1 Bet365 - 1pt win

Thecornishcowboy is certainly on a very handy mark and I thought his most recent performance at Yarmouth shows he is now poised to win a race soon. He got stuck in traffic on the inside rail from 3f out, found himself then outpaced over 1f out, had to switch wide and finished on the outside really strongly once he found his stride again. He clearly prefers further and I would imagine 12f is his optimum, but there is plenty of pace in this race tomorrow, which should help. Richard Hughes booked for the ride says connections expect a big run. 

16.20 Wolverhampton: Minley @ 5/1 Paddy Power - 2pts win

Still generally lightly raced, Minley showed a clear improvement on his second seasonal outing at Lingfield last month.He was close to the pace, turned for home disputing the lead and with a big chance, but got twice then badly hampered by the eventual winner. Once around 2f out, and then from 1f out pretty much all the way down to the finish line. The winner won subsequently again and also finished a good fourth in a class 2 handicap. Minley is 2lb up for this performance but could still easily be a good deal better than this mark, and has also the assistance of a very capable 5lb claimer. He can go from pole position, and should be able to be up with the pace tomorrow for that reason, which is always an advantage around Wolverhampton.

BBOTD - Saturda 26th April 2014

Finally a winner this month - better late than never. It panned out as hoped on Thursday, the drop in trip helped Iseemist and she won thanks to a resolute performance, showing good early speed, travelling well, then kicking on over 2f out and fending of all challengers in the closing stages. 

14.20 Haydock: Fort Bastion @ 14/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Fort Bastion impressed me on his seasonal return a fortnight ago at Thirsk, which was also his first good performance in almost two years. He has changed yards over the winter which seems to have a positive effect on him. He used to be a smart prospect as a 2yo when he finished 2nd behind Maybe at Royal Ascot but somewhere he lost his form and sparkle. At Thirsk recently he showed some of his old ability though, without getting a too hard rice, even though one could say he was one of the unlucky ones in this race. He settled in rear of the field, made progress turning for home from 3f out but got stuck in traffic on the inside rail soon after. His jockey made a dramatic move from 2f out from the inside to the widest outside of the field, which cost ground and momentum and is tough on horses who have to straighten up and pick up again. Fort Bastion was running out of time anyway but finished the race well on the the outside under hands and heels. He should come on allot for this run and should be better today. 7f might be a bit too sharp on drying ground, but there is loads of pace on here, which should help. He can also race from bottom of the weights off a very nice mark now, and that all together gives him a really nice chance, if he can bring his best to the table today.

BBOTD - Thursday 24th April 2014

19.55 Brighton: Iseemist @ 6/1 Paddy Power - 2pts win

I feel this filly will greatly benefit from a drop in trip. She clearly looked like a filly that doesn't get home over 7f in her last couple of starts, while running well nonetheless. Particularly impressive was her most recent effort in my mind. She had the widest draw to overcome, crossed over and disputed the lead early on, burning loads of energy in the first couple of furlongs, as the pace was really on too. She benefited from the pace in a way that she travelled strongly and looked to be in with every chance turning for home. However she hit a brick wall over 1f out. I feel back on turf, with ground she has shown form on in the past, over a shorter trip, she can win a race of her current mark.

Selections for Wednesday 23rd April 2014

Didn't run badly, not having the clearest of runs Barwick, but let's be honest, once he was in the clear, he wasn't exactly firing and that was probably very much down to the trip I feel. 

14.20 Epsom: Jakey @ 9/1 Bet365 - 3pts win + Aryal @ 18/1 Coral - 1pt win

Really interesting and competitive Handicap here tomorrow at Ascot. I do really like the chance of Jakey, for many reasons. I was extremely impressed with his seasonal reappearance as a 4 year old at Kempton three weeks ago. The race was run at a crawl which didn't quite suit him, he was sweating quite heavily before the off already and he was keen like a bull throughout the whole race, still tanking turning for home! He then looked for a short moment a bit in trouble when the front-runner increased the pace suddenly, but he quickly found his stride, and produced a lovely turn of foot to win with authority. He looks physically improved now as a 4yo and looks like a horse with loads of potential. He was mightily impressive when he won a maiden at Epsom last year over 10f, so he clearly is fine on the course, and I have no doubts about the trip whatsoever. Slight worry is the ground though, I would imagine he is better on good ground, but on pedigree at least, the soft going shouldn't be too much of an issue. We certainly find out tomorrow. I think this horse is ten pounds plus better than the current mark and I expect a huge performance, from this lightly raced gelding, if he can produce his best on this kind of ground. 

I also expect an improved performance from Aryal. He is progressive, has not too many miles under the belt either, and it's interesting to see him back on turf and for the first time on softish ground in particular, which should perfectly suit on pedigree. He ran well on Good Friday in the Apprentice Handicap, when he set a quick, even pace but looked beaten for speed in the closing stages, while clinging on for fourth in brave manner. Trip should be ideal on breeding, and he might still be a bit better than his current mark either. I feel he is a good deal overpriced.

BBOTD - Tuesday 22nd April 2014

Entihaa was a non-runner on Sunday.

17.55 Yarmouth: Barwick @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Plenty to like about Barwick tomorrow. Most importantly, his most recent performance, in fact his seasonal reappearance, caught my eye. He travelled nicely till 2f out, then tried to make headway and in all fairness had every chance on the inside, when eventually he looked to pass the horse in front of him over 1f out, to challenge for victory, but that move ended abruptly when the horse in front shifted towards the rail and the gap disappeared. The handicapper dropped him a pound for this performance, which means he is now 3lb below his last winning mark. In addition to that it is interesting to see him at Yarmouth tomorrow, a track he likes, with two course wins to his name. The fast ground will very much suit either. Only concern is the trip: 10f. Does he stay that far? He never won over this trip, however he's another year older and might just get it fine these days, as he tried it only as a 3 year old, and now six years of age, it is worth another try. The flat track and quick ground will certainly help to get the trip anyway. There is too much on the plus side that clearly outweighs the concern about the distance, as his price is too big in my mind.

BBOTD - Sunday 20th of April 2014

15.35 Musselburgh: Entihaa @ 11/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Entihaa made a big impression last time ou at Newcastle on his seasonal reappearance. He travelled pretty well, even though he was a bit slowly into stride at the start, but got no in-running luck whatsoever. He was locked on the inside when the field approached the home straight and he tried desperately to get out there but found himself only short of room when he tried. Finally around 2f out he got a gap, but at that point the eventual winner and 2nd were long gone. Entihaa stayed on extremely well though, cutting back a huge deficit and finished 3rd. This runs suggests that he wouldn't mind a step up in trip, and his sire is a good stamina influence, so to try him over 2m doesn't look stupid. He has a nice mark in fact he won of this mark last year a class 4 Handicap over 12f at Thirsk. Only real question mark is the ground for me tomorrow Could be bit too quick. But let's find out. He is a nice price.

Bets for Saturday 19th April 2014

14.20 Kempton: Chilworth Icon @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Chilworth Icon was extremely unlucky on his latest start at Thirsk. He was travelling in midfield, going super strongly but didn't get any run whatsoever when it really mattered. He was desperate for a gap and was on bridle until late. He got out at some point finally but was also bumped 1f out and all his chances were gone. He would have gone much closer with a clear run. He ran extremely at Lingfield on his penultimate start hot race too, when he also didn't quite get the run of the race but finished really well. He is down to handy mark now, as he has done well off much higher in hot handicaps last year, and he also won in listed company back in 2012.

19.30 Bath: Where's Reiley @ 8/1 Coral - 2pts win

Where's Reiley appears to be tremendously well handicapped on his return to turf following an eye-catching performance at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago. That day he had the widest draw to overcome and used up an awful lot of energy in order to be close to the pace early on. He also travelled widest on the outside, all less then of an advantage. He made a nice move coming around the home bend trying to challenge the leader and eventual winner but that won had the run of the race and pulled clear in the closing stages, yet Where's Reiley made him work hard for it. WR finished a nice 2nd though confirming his well being and now back on the turf he can race of a 5lb lower mark, which even considered of what he has done on turf the last couple of years, is really low. He won off higher, and ran well at Bath in the past. He must have a cracking chance today.

BBOTD - Wednesday 16th April 2014

Both horses ran really well on Monday, HCD was unlucky, to be locked on the inside and would have finished much closer with a clear run, while Discussiontofollow travelled very well and looked to get up late but didn't quite get there and finished 3rd. 

14.55 Newmarket: Crowdmania @ 20/1 Coral - 1pt win

Like this progressive Mark Johnston runner. Only 84 rated yet, but can be much better than this I suspect. Was particularly impressive lto at Kempton when hemade all, and kicked away 2f out in impressive style, putting daylight between himself and the rest of the field in a matter of strides. He held on nicely to win comfortably in the end. He stays bit further but 7f seems perfect trip, so drop to 6f seems questionable. But I feel Newmarket can be a tough track so to stay bit further doesn't need to be an issue, as well as he has speed on dam side who was 3rd in Listed company over 6f. It's a wide open race in my mind and for that reason Crowdmania is not out of this, with further improvement he has every chance to run a big race I feel.

Another one for Monday...

14.40 Pontefract: Hard Core Debt @ 19/1 Betfair - 1pt win

Interesting runner who caught my eye on his first start after eight month for a new yard at Doncaster a fortnight ago. He Travelled really well in midfield, made some nice headway on the outside turning for home, seemingly going really strongly. Then 2f out he was sudnely weakening and dropped soon back, but was also never ridden and never any question asked. I suggest 10f on soft going was probably never to suit on the first start since July 2013. He looked good when winning a maiden in Ireland as a 2yo, and I thought he produced a good level of performance when finishing a fine 2nd at Beverly last year. It could well be the case that he these kind of difficult, undulating tracks and for that reason Pontefract today could well suit, so should be the drop in trip to 1m. He can start off a feather weight in this race too thanks to a falling mark.

BBOTD - Monday 14th April

16.20 Windsor: Discussiontofollow @ 4/1 Coral - 4pts win

This is a hugely exciting prospect who could still be a good deal better than his new handicap mark. He won his last three races pretty much on the bridle, but it was the most recent effort at Kempton that left me in awe! He settled in rear, made nice headway throughout the race, approaching the 2f marker hard on the bridle, impressing with some amazing cruising speed, the rest of the field already hard ridden, he was let lose 1f out, when he produced a nice acceleration to put the race easily to bet while never coming off the bridle. He could have won by any lengths, but his jockey held him together, as done in the other races before too. He's ten pounds up for this, which seems unlikely to stop him, if he can produce this level of form on turf as well. He did well in two maidens on turf last year though, and there is no reason why he should have any problem with the good ground at Windsor tomorrow.