Thursday, September 12, 2013

Nap of the Day...

14.10 Doncaster: Maureen @ 2/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

Richard Hannon's filly looks like one of the most frustrating/unlucky horses of the whole year. She ran extremely well on many occasions this year, while contesting in top class races. Maureen usually travels really well through the races, and did stay on in eye-catching fashion, coming mostly from off the pace. Yet I think the drop in trip to 7f won't be a problem today. Much the difference actually, it probably is the completely right decision and could turn out to be her optimum trip.

Maureen - impressive  Group 3 winner at Newbury in April
Maureen started this season with a strong performance in a Group 3 over seven furlongs at Newbury, producing a nice turn of foot. She looked smart that day and went on to the 1.000 Guineas at Newmarket. That day she was one of the unlucky horses in the race, not getting a clear run, but staying on in good style. She was out of luck in the Irish equivalent as well though, as she got stuck in traffic and hampered about 2f out. Not too many excuses for her in the Coronation Stakes at Ascot then. She travelled really well for a long time, was in a good position, even though slightly short of room over 2f out, but in the end rather fair and square beaten in 4th, giving the impression a drop in trip could help her. It followed another creditable effort in the Prix Rotschild at Deauville, where she was held-up and had a difficult trip in the closing stages, while travelling well again. Since then she got a little break, and drops now down to Group 3 class for the first time after contesting in five consecutive Group 1's.

It looks a good field in todays Sceptre Stakes. A couple of nice fillies in the line-up, which makes it a competitive race. But it is Maureen who makes most appeal with her form standing out. She'll find this here today much easier, the drop in trip should suit, the ground is perfectly fine as she won on good to soft a Group 3 earlier this year as well as the track should suit her running style. If she gets finally a clear run she should be very hard to beat.


Betfred Horse Racing

Saturday, September 7, 2013

The Eye-Catcher: Saturday the 7th of September...

17.20 Kempton: The Tichborne @ 11/1 Coral - 2pts win

The Tichborne looks a very price considering his excellent recent form but in particular his excellent recent run here at Kempton. Over 6f, which might be a bit too short actually - I feel 7f is probably his best trip - he travelled nicely on the inside rail, which was kind of fatal, though, as he was locked there once turning for home, and had to wait until a gap opened, which happened just under 2f out, when he angled out. Once in the clear and straighten up again, he really powered home and almost caught the leading trio, while he was the only one really staying on from behind as three of the first four have been running prominently. I rate this a very big performance and he clearly thrives on the All-Weather. The fact that he won once off a mark of 83 on the AW suggests that he a mark of 78 is certainly not beyond him and this last performance backs this in my mind.

Saturday, August 31, 2013

The Eye-Catcher: Saturday the 31st of August...

14.55 Chester: Ayaar @ 11/1 Bet365 - 2pts win
A clear return to form from Ayaar here at Chester a fortnight ago. He looked a bit awkward at the beginning of the race, had to be pushed forward right after jumping off the gates just to pull very hard seconds later. He travelled then very well in the middle of the pack for the reminders of the race, in fact he was going much the strongest 3f out. But while the eventual winner and runners-up had the run of the race from the front, Ayaar was locked on the inside and had to delay his challenge. Turning for home he switched to the outside, turning widest of all, which cost vital momentum. Finally balanced and straighten up he flew home the final 300m or so but the two leaders weren't to catch. This was a very nice performance nonetheless. A clear return to form after a rather disappointing year so far. He looked so promising as a 2yo last season, when he won a Group 3 in Germany, beating this years German Oaks win Penelopa in second. Ayaar is down to a good mark now I feel anyway, and I find it interesting to see him running against older horses for the first time again. This is the time of the year when 3yo can have a real advantage in open contests and the weight for age allowance can make a huge difference for Ayaar. He has a decent draw as well, so he should be able to get a good position early on, and then he must have every chance to be in the mix. He's overpriced in my mind, no doubt.

Sunday, August 25, 2013

The Eye-Catcher: Monday the 26th of August...

Very disappointing performance by Car O'mountain yesterday. Was early under pressure and faded badly in the closing stages. Was a strange race though and something was amiss I feel. The horse shouldn't be judged on that performance and could be still interesting next time out.


14.25 Ripon: Gioia Di Vita @ 11/2 - 3pts Bet365

Gioia Di Vita made a big impression on me recently. This 3yo colt travelled like a dream at Newcastle ten days ago, still on the bridle even approaching the 1f marker. However he didn't get any run whatsoever and was eventually eased down. Of course he's much better than the bare result suggests and this was a conformation of his fine, consistent form actually as he was just beaten at the line in his penultimate start. Gioia Di Vita is still generally lightly raced and open to further improvement, and while this looks an open little handicap, I only really fear Lyric Piece of her a low mark. Otherwise I can't really see what makes Gioia Di Vita an 11/2 shot in this race, so I hope he can get a clear run and then should be very much in the mix here.

Friday, August 23, 2013

The Eye-Catcher: Saturday the 24th of August...

Gregori didn't run a bad race for us yesterday, he finished a decent 5th place but wasn't quite good enough on the day to win it, though. He went off a 12/1 eventually. 


17.05 Newmarket: Car O'mountain @ 9/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Car O'mountain is still lightly raced and looked talented last year when winning twice in three starts. He made his seasonal reappearance in June at Newmarket in a hot Handicap. Winner Maputo went on to win impressively a couple of other races, including a Group 3, the overall form works out well for this race anyway. Car O'mountain stepped up to 12f then the following month, and I thought that particular performance was really eye-catching. He had the widest draw in this race and made up loads of ground soon after the start when racing widest of all to share the lead from 11f out. He was racing throughout the race really wide wide and apart from the main body of the field, while setting a good pace together with Mark Johnston's Blue Way. He took over the lead from 3f out and kicked away, put a couple of lengths between him and his rivals but tired badly in the closing stages, probably as a result of the energy he must have burned in the early stages of the race. Yet he finished 3rd, a good deal clear of the rest, while the horse he shared the lead with for a long time finished 20 lengths beaten in the end. So I think considering the circumstances this was a massive performance by Car O'mountain. The form of this race looks more than solid, with the runners-up being successful at Glorious Goodwood. Car O'mountain drops in trip again, which should be a positive thing as he looked like not quite staying the 12f trip. I think he has still room for improvement, he changed the yard recently as well, so I feel he can run a big race here tomorrow.


Betfred Horse Racing

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

The Eye-Catcher. Thursday the 22nd of August...

18.50 Wolverhampton: Gregori @ 15/2 Bet365 - 2pts win

Huge price in my mind for the on paper most talented horse in a poor low grade Handicap. Gregori didn't show too much in three maiden starts and one can say he was pretty disappointing on Handicap debut as well. But I think there is a bit more in this as Gregori travelled like a dream for a very long time at Chepstow last time out, setting a good pace in soft conditions, having all his rivals pretty early off the bridle. He certainly travelled like the winner until 2f out but the combination of fast pace and soft conditions found him out in the end probably as he faded soon badly, however didn't get a too hard race either. Gregori is actually quite nicely bred, by Invincible Spirit and out of a Listed race winner. If he takes on to the All-Weather, and I think he has surly every chance to do so, he'll have a big chance to win this race, particularly from his good draw, which should ensure that he has a good and prominent position early on.

Monday, August 19, 2013

Ride a race with Russell Baze...

Russell Baze has ridden more than 12.000 winners through his enduring career. No one has ridden more. The now 55 year old is the most winning jockey in North America with the highest strike rate! So if this man talks you through a race, you better listen carefully. For the New York Times he reconstructed one of his races, explaining what he's doing in the starting stalls, what he's looking out for during the race, and what are the key factors in the closing stages. That all wrapped up in breathtaking footage makes the following video so insightful and beautiful in the same.

Additional Information: This video was produced for a NYT project called The Jockey. Find out more about it here: www.nytimes.com/projects/2013/the-jockey






Sunday, August 18, 2013

Gabrial's Kaka does the job!

First winner this month! Gabrial's Kaka done it really well, despite a worrying drift in the betting before the off. He was sent off a 7/1 chance eventually, despite two non-runners, which make things even sweeter thanks to best odds guaranteed with all the big bookies. As expected Gabrial's Kaka raced prominently, sharing the lead with the favourite for a long time, but drew away from the rest of the field turning for home. He was able to increase his lead over 1f out and won comfortably in the end. 

August has been a disaster so far as most of our selections didn't even come close to win, but finally some confidence was justified and it looks likely that we finish this month still in a healthy profit. That's the beauty of racing. One winner can change everything!


Betfred Horse Racing

Saturday, August 17, 2013

The Eye-Catcher: Sunday the 18th of August

16.20 Pontefract: Gabrial's Kaka @ 5/1 bet365 - 3pts win

Gabrial's Kaka showed a clear return to form at Haydock recently and looks really dangerous here being allowed to race of the same mark again as I would think he would have gone very close with a clear run. He travelled very well but got simply stuck in traffic the whole home straight along, until he got finally out very late out to finish well only ¾ lengths beaten in the end. He's still generally lightly raced and looked quite talented as a 2yo but lost somehow his form and didn't show much this year until his most recent run.

As he has done well on tracks like Epsom and Chester I would assume Pontefract is a track he'll really like, he shouldn't be too far off the pace given his preferred running style as well as it is only a small field anyway, which is usually important here I feel. This is here a cracking little contest, but I think Gabrial's Kaka has a better chance to win than the price suggest.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

The Eye-Catcher: Thursday the 15th August...

Tough stuff... The Candyman Can ran a huge race for us, finished only a neck beaten in 2nd as a 14/1 chance at the off. Bitter, just bitter. It's not going to happen for us at the moment.


15.25 Ffos Las: Choral Festival @ 14/1 Bet365 - 1pt win

Choral Festival is in excellent form and ran a huge race at Sandown recently, when she finished 3rd but probably can considered to be a rather unlucky loser. Not sure if she would have won, maybe not as the winner looked very progressive, but she travelled like a dream, was on the bridle until almost 1f out but also couldn't get a run through until the final furlong marker. She finished well enough, but probably didn't have the speed to cope with the winner and second, so the step up to 12f, a distance she won over only a couple of weeks ago, will certainly suit. She encounters a couple of young and unexposed rivals, even though this lot is far from exciting, so I feel she can win of a her current mark.

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

The Eye-Catcher: Wednesday the 14th of August...


17.10 Ffos Las: Candyman Can @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

A horrible race but Candyman Can makes loads of appeal to me as he really caught my eye on his most recent start, even if that was a while ago. He was last seen in January at Lingfield, when he made his Handicap debut. He travelled nicely actually, but got then in trouble over 4f out, when slightly hampered and as a result he lost position which left him suddenly with loads to do, while still travelling strongly though turning for home. He really finished then super strongly on the outside coming from well of the pace and came really close to the winner. Beaten by half a lengths only in the end, he would have probably been the winner with a clear run. His absence since then is is a worry of course, but in this really poor race I think he's really interesting on turf debut and only his fifth start overall. He's the least exposed horse and could be a good deal better than his current mark, so therefore I feel it's worth a chance at a price I think is slightly too big. 

Saturday, August 10, 2013

Beauty and cruelty of racing...


Racing is a beautiful sport. A thoroughbred in full flight is probably the most stunning thing you can see in this world. Racing can be however a cruel sport as well - in terms of betting at least. But even if it doesn't got to well for us at the moment, transparent as we always are: Our bets tracker is updated. You can find all stats and past selections in the following doc: http://goo.gl/pT8qW

 It has to be said that we're hugely disappointed with the performance of our selections at the moment. It was another day where all our horses ran poorly, no doubt. It is one of the hardest things to keep the confidence up if horses you fancy to go really close show absolutely nothing comes the moment of truth. So far this August it is a complete disaster for us. You can say it any different. Non of our selections went even close - well Sajjhaa ran quite well in the Nassau Stakes in all fairness - which is really tough to take. It is a real shame, in fact we encountered this on a couple of occasions before, though, and as anyone who understands the sport and betting knows this is simply a normal thing and can happen. July saw pretty much the same pattern for example, and in the end we made a healthy profit of 25pts. At some point the table will turn, and in the end it only matters if you're a winner in the long term. 

Appart of that, we wish all our followers and friends a lovely rest of the weekend of course. And don't forget: Big racing in France tomorrow with Dawn Approach making a quick return to the racetrack after his 2nd place in the Sussex Stakes, as well as the big race day in Ireland at the Curragh, with the highlight the Phoenix Stakes on the card. One thing is for sure: The beauty of racing will never cease to amaze...