Epsom Oaks Friday - 31st of May 2013...

Today wasn't the day for Bobbyscot, but keep an eye on him, he's poised to win in my mind. He didn't really was asked to many questions, he ran on a bit in the closing stages though, but didn't have a chance from well off the pace in a slowly run race anyway.

Epsom Festival is kicks off on Friday. The Oaks on Friday, the Derby on Saturday...

15.20 Epsom: Hefner @ 8/1 Boylesports - 2pts win

I thought Hefner ran a huge race at Chester recently. He had the 2nd widest draw to overcome, had to settle in rear of the field, what is never an advantage at this track. He struggled with the pace from 4f out but kept going and made loads of ground on the outside finishing very strongly in the closing stages and landed even the 3rd place eventually. I thought that day, at a different track, with a better draw and a further trip he'd be very dangerous. He looks to have improved from 3 to 4 again and now trained by Botti he has every chance to be well capable of winning of his current mark. He's well drawn tomorrow and the 9f trip should be in his favour, so even in this competitive looking race I feel he has an excellent chance.



16.00 Epsom: Say @ 16/1 Betfair - 1pt win

I always liked Moth, I said this straight after her maiden win, which I saw with my own eyes at the Curragh that she's potentially a really, really smart filly. Not everyone believed me at that time, but her performance in the Guineas clearly backed the suggestion. I fancy her strongly for the Oaks, with the longer trip in her favour, but I can't have her for the short price in a race that looks wide open. The price is drifting into a direction I rather like now, but still it's too short and I feel her stable companion Say is underestimated. She looks a big price and is the value in this race in my mind. She made big impressions on all her three starts in her career and improved nicely from 2 to 3. It's interesting that she made her debut in the same race at Navan last year as Moth did and both finished fifth and sixth that day while Say looked actually the better prospect after having loads to do in the home straight staying on nicely in the closing stages though. She was put away after that an re-appeared at Leopardstown in April this year again in a Maiden over 10f. The sprint finish clearly didn't suit her that day and it took her a while to find another gear but she stayed on really strongly and beat the eventual winner a few strides after the line. She got then finally off the mark three weeks ago at Cork. A really poor maiden, she was a short favourite and entitled to win it easily. She did so in the end on gruelling ground in really impressive fashion however. She travelled always strongly in a prominent position and kicked easily away from the rest of the field in a matter of strides. it's a big step up from a poor maiden at Cork right into Group 1 class in the Oaks, of course, but she's lovely bred, bred to do exactly this job over this distance, and I think she is a bit of an unknown quantity here tomorrow, which makes her really interesting for the price though as she is bound to improve.



18.35 Goodwood: Short Squeeze @ 4/1 Paddy Power - 3pt win

Short Squeeze looks to have conditions in favour here tomorrow and should be hard to beat following a very strong performance at Nottingham three weeks ago. He travelled like a dream in rear that day, made lovely progress from 3f out on the inside, going much the strongest, but was slightly short of room and had to wait until he could get into the clear. The eventual winner had first run from the front and was already in top gear, which made it difficult for Short Squeeze to respond immediately. He couldn't live up to the speed of the winner in the end but came still a long way clear of the third. Step up in trip tomorrow looks perfectly fine now, and he goes definitely in the right direction, after his first start this year, also his handicap debut, at Doncaster a couple of weeks ago, was rather a strange performance. He dwelt at the start, pulled really hard then, was very green, pulled his way up to the front, turned very wide for home as he was hanging badly, but ran still well, just tired in the final furlong. So after all he looks to have a bit of ability and might be too good for this lot in this race tomorrow.

Thursday the 30th of May...

18.10 Sandown: Bobbyscot @ 16/1 Ladbrokes - 1pt win

This is a very interesting horse and I waited half a year to see it again on the racetrack, following a hugely impressive display at Kempton in December. It might be the case that tomorrow is not the day to release the handbrake, but this horse is so well handicapped now and a tasty price either so it's worth a chance here. Otherwise, he might be of even greater interest in his following start. The case I want to make for this horse is this one anyway: He is a generally lightly raced horse for a 6yo. He was a promising juvenile as well as through his classic season. His probably best performance ever came in the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes at the Curragh in May 2010 when he finished runners-up to subsequent Derby favourite Jan Vermeer which brought him a career highest rating of 103. He had his problems afterwards, changed yards and appeared on a racetrack more than two years later again, then in the UK. He raced four times since his move to Britain, including this mentioned start at Kempton as the latest one. He worked his mark down to 75 now.

I have no doubts that this horse is better than a mark like that. In the race at Kempton he showed clearly signs of retaining some ability, despite not being ridden to finish in the best possible position. He travelled in rear that day over 10f at Kempton, a trip where it's usually way better to be close to the pace due to the short run-in. No surprise to see him having loads to do turning for home. Only a few stayed really on from off the pace in this race, in fact the race was dominated by the pair that lead the field the whole way. Bobbyscot then made his impressive run through the field, running on under a light hands and heels ride, finishing the race really well in a manner of a horse that is actually ahead of its mark. The 2nd in this race won two better races subsequently on the All-Weather. So this form is decent as well. So after all I feel this horse is dangerously well handicapped and will be able to pick up a few wins sooner rather than later. I hope he starts tomorrow to do this, if not, there will be surly another day.

Monday the 27th of May...

17.30 Windsor: Robin Hood @ 14/1 Bet365 - 1pt win

Wrote the following below about Robin Hood before his most recent start at Ascot. I applies to his chance tomorrow as well. He's back over 10f, and I'm not quite sure if that is what he wants but he gets a huge chance by the handicapper, getting 5lb off his mark. I thought he didn't run too badly at Ascot, even though it he was never close enough to be dangerous. But he remains an interesting horse, now dangerously well handicapped, and Windsor might be the ideal track to apply front-running tactics with this horse again.

"I thought Robin Hood ran a pretty fine race at Newbury in a competitive Handicap lto. He was outpaced from 4f out, and looked likely to finish at the back of the field. But he kept going and ran on really well in the final furlong to finish a decent 5th in the end. He's slipping further down in the mark nonetheless and is down to a very handy mark now I feel. Before he was mainly used a pacemaker for the big Ballydoyle guns he actually was quite a decent horse in his own right, finishing 2nd in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes as a 2yo. He had his problems after that, and appeared on the racetrack 16 month later again, then in a Handicap at Leopardstown, when he made all to win from the front in good style of a mark of 90. This was still last year, and now 7lb lower, he might be very dangerous on a good day. Even more so back over 12f, as I think this is more his trip as he's a Galileo and his dam won over 2m. I'd like to see him ridden more prominently again tomorrow and think he could spring a surprise here then over this sort of trip of his low mark."



17.35 Redcar: Looks Like Rain @ 7/2 Bet365 - 4pts win

This looks a bit like a penalty kick for Looks Like Rain to me. All she needs is a clear run, then I expect her to hack up tomorrow in this race. She was so unlucky three weeks ago at Newcastle, yet finished the race really strongly despite all the trouble, in the manner of a horse that has a couple of pounds in hand. In that particular race she got outpaced 4f out but made then some nice headway on the inside. To be in that position proofed fatal as she found herself short of room there due to a tiring front-runner. She almost landed in the rails, lost clearly her balance but stuck to the task, fought bravely for position to get finally in the clear. Once straighten up she finished like a train but the bird was flown already. With a trouble free run she would have gone very close though I think. She steps up further in trip tomorrow, is back over 1m 6f what should very much suit as well as she drops in class. Ground should be perfectly fine for her and the 2lb raise in the mark shouldn't make too much of a difference. She really should prove too good for the rest in this field with conditions to suit over this sort of trip.

Irish 1.000 Guineas day photos...

Well, racing can be a cruel game from time to time. Mappin Time was really unlucky yesterday. He would have won I suppose... if he wouldn't have been badly hampered over 2f out. He ran a huge race nonetheless and got beaten in a photo eventually. Today wasn't a lucky day either. A couple of month ago I advised an ante-post bet on the exciting filly Viztoria for the Irish 1.000 Guineas. I think she would have had a huge chance of winning this race today. Unfortunately she pulled out off the field a few hours before the race as she wasn't right this morning. But as cruel as the game can be, the sport remains as beautiful as ever. Just The Judge was a deserved winner of the race and I got two fantastic shots today, as you can see below...

Irish 1.000 Guineas winner: Just The Judge

Sir John Hawkins prevails in an exciting finish in the opener

Saturday the 25th of May...

Magic City won it. Convincing performance! Despite missing slightly the break he travelled nicely all the time and produced a nice turn of foot to win by a good lengths in the end. Harrison George finished a creditable 4th.

Big Singspiel is yet again a non-runner due to the changing ground. It's soft at Yarmouth now and he needs decent ground no doubt. I think connections must think a good deal of him if they are so cautious to let him run only on ground that really suit. This was now the 2nd time that he was taken out of a race due to the changing going.

Mappin Time

16.55 Haydock: Mappin Time @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Mappin Time won this race last year and he looks perfectly primed for another crack. He really caught the eye at Doncaster three weeks ago when he never really got a run. He was travelling in rear, where he had a bunch of horses in front of his nose which made life difficult. When the pace increased he couldn't react, as from 3f out there was simply no way through for him with all the horses in front of him. He made a bit of headway when a gap opened around two furlongs out, yet he was short room soon again. Eventually he switched to the outside over 1f out and finished the race decent enough, but all chances were gone.

I thought he looked much much better than the bare form suggest in that race and the fact that he gets off 2lb of his mark makes him a really well handicapped horse now, being 1lb below last years winning mark. With fast ground expected he should have conditions in his favour as well, so I really expect a big run. 

Friday the 24th of May...

14.35 Goodwood: Magic City @ 16/1 PP 1pt win + Harrison George @ 12/1 Bet365 - 1pt win

 Harrison George's recognizable face 

Just wondering about the prices for these two horses. Both made it into my notebook thanks to their most recent performances, which were quite eye-catching I thought. Harrison George ran a big race over rather too short 6f at Newbury just six days ago. He was right up with pace early on, but lost position over 3f out when a horse crossed his way, he was then a bit in a pocket and and was unable to react immediately to the pace increase, soon after he got outpaced himself, though he recovered and finished strongly in 5th eventually. This came in a way stronger race than the one he's contesting in tomorrow, as he drops down into class 4 company again. He confirmed with that run the fine form he was showing in recent time, as he was unlucky at Lingfield before, when he looked the winner 50m out or so until a fast finisher got to him and denied him narrowly. He gets the assistance of useful apprentice Robert Tart, and back over 7f, of a handy looking mark, I expect him to run a good race again. He has a better chance of winning this than the price suggest, in my mind anyway.

Magic City travelled like a dream on his seasonal reappearance at Leicester last month. He was on the bridle until 2f out, going much the strongest, however travelling in rear proved fatal, as the leading pair was not too catch and nothing was able to stay on from behind in that race. The jockey realized this soon and eased Magic City down. He is way better than this form no doubt, as he showed promise as a 2yo, competing in some really competitive races. He was seen on a racetrack only twice last year, not very successful appearances, and he dropped now down to a very low looking mark. He could be easily better than that, and with 5lb claimer WT Davies booked, he really should be right in the mix when it matters tomorrow. 



16.30 Yarmouth: Bin Singspiel @ 11/2 Paddy Power - 2pts win

Looks a really competitive affair this race, but that makes Bin Singspiel an interesting runner here going handicapping for the first time of a significant lower weight than the other market principles. But there is more about him: He knocked on the door twice in maidens, when finishing very impressively at Wolverhampton in November last year, when he had all but clearly not the run of the race, when he was beaten on the line eventually. He started his 3yo campaign at Yarmouth a few weeks ago in a maiden, and while he was under pressure from 4f out, badly outpaced, he showed a lovely attitude and stayed on well to finish 2nd in the end. Obviously he's crying out for a step up in trip and this will be provided tomorrow on his first handicap start. His opening mark of 72 looks more than fair and he could be better than that, particularly over this longer trip.

One for Thursday night...

20.50 Salisbury: Jan De Heem @ 7/1 VC - 2pts win

Jan De Heem impressed me on his recent win at Goodwood on his handicap debut with first time visor applied. He travelled really well, didn't have the easiest run through the field from 3f while improving his position but the gap opened eventually and he kicked easily away from the rest of the field, producing a nice little turn of foot to win with authority. Not a bad form, as the 3rd, Contradict, won subsequently a better race by six lengths and is an interesting runner in a Listed race today. Jan De Heem has the potential too improve on his only 2nd handicap start and while I really like the look of the favourite Duke of Pearth here, my selection looks really overpriced.

Thursday the 23rd of May...

 Michael J M Murphy  

14.35 Goodwood: Swift Bounty @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Swift Bounty probably made it into many notebookes two weeks ago on his handicap debut at Ascot. He travelled like a dream in rear, made eye-catching headway from 3f out, but found life difficult having a bunch of horses in front of him. He is short of room around the 2f marker for the first time and has to delay a challenge, he picks up again, but gets racing room denied 1f out again. He has to wait until finally a gap opens up, he quickens again and finishes only hands and heels ridden an impressive 4th. Obviously this was a much better performance than the bare result suggested and he looks way ahead of his opening mark of 79 in my mind. He should really run a huge race tomorrow, if he stays the additional furlong. That is the only slight worry. The jockey/trainer combination works very well though, both have fantastic records at Goodwood as well and Michael J M Murphy  is well worth his 5lb claim anyway.

There is later the day another horse I quite fancy, Jan De Heem, in the 20.50 at Salisbury. No prices out yet though and therefore I have to wait. He won really well last time on his handicap debut and could be a good deal better than his new mark. Even though this will be a Classified Stakes race, where they all have to carry the same weight. He could do really well, and I'd be more than happy with the forecast of 7/1...

Monday the 20th of May...

19.00 Roscommon: Coco Bella @ 14/1 VC - 2pts win

Usually avoiding maidens but in this case it's hard to oppose lovely bred Coco Bella for this big price. She sprang to my attention on her most recent start in a Handicap at the Curragh over 10f a fortnight ago. That day she travelled like a dream in rear, on the bridle until the 2f marker, making smooth headway, switching to the inside rail to get a clear run in the closing stages and staying on well to finish 3rd while she didn't have the speed to cope with the first two. This form looks good as the winner won again a few days later. For Coco Bella it was her first good performance in her career. In all her six starts before she was utterly disappointing, changing the yard as well. She looks like a horse that will relish the step up in trip today, I ignore her only start over 12f on her debut anyway. For some reason things didn't went well for her yet, she is actually very well bred though, by Danehill Dancer, out of a G3 winning mare. Chris Hayes is booked for the ride, the combo with Trainer Deegan enjoys a 19.35% strike rate this season so far, so all looks set for a good run in a maiden that doesn't look overly exciting.

Hoarding does the job!

Hoarding confirmed his excellent course form at Newmarket

Hoarding won it in a thriller against Tha'ir today, showing a lovely attitude! He travelled nicely, while the race was run at a good pace, he edged out to the right 3f out and got bumped by Tha'ir, who himself was battling hard. But in the end Hoarding prevailed by a head. They came miles clear of the rest of the field. 

The last two month have been really though for me and this blog, no doubt. But surprisingly, thanks to the Dawn Approach ante-post- and the last two successful bets in recent days things look a bit friendlier now again and the profit even increased by a small margin after falling a long way in the weeks before. Obviously it is still way short of what it used to be two months ago but I'm working hard to get things back on track. While things didn't really pan out for me and luck wasn't on my side either in this time, I can only blame myself for the big loss as a look through my selections made really clear where and why the loss was so heavy: Short priced horses which I backed with high stakes like 4pts+ have been utterly unsuccessful and that is obviously a real killer for profit. If I would have cut out only the three biggest three bets in the last five weeks, Fils Anges (5pts), Contributer (5pts) & Aegaeus (7pts) [all lost] everything would look much brighter. There were also a couple of 4pt bets on short priced horses which failed to deliver winners. So that is quite obviously the biggest weakness. It's something I have to stop, means I should avoid backing horses priced below 3/1. It's a simple rule, and I have to and want to follow it from now on. Even though it is not easy to stay disciplined, if you really fancy one. But I simply don't get things right with these kind of horses, and the margin for error is very small in this price section. So I stay away of it. Let's hope things normalize now anyway, as this site could do well with a few more winners...

Saturday the 18th of May...

16.05 Newmarket: Hoarding @ 6/1 Betfred - 2pts win

This looks an open race and I feel Hoarding is a shade to big in the betting market considering his good record here at Newmarket and his eye-catching performance in a Listed race a fortnight ago. That race was won by Windhoek in good style, who had the run of the race from the front though, setting a slow pace. Hoarding travelled in rear and got under pressure from 3f out, had to be shaken up to keep in touch with the rest of the field. He really battled hard though and showed a lovely attitude running on stoutly in the closing stages to finish 3rd eventually. That suggest the 10f trip is within his range, even though his pedigree doesn't really point into that direction, but it's worth another chance here today. He tried it once before, at Epsom in a trail, but got badly hampered at a crucial stage of the race when trying to make up some ground turning for home.

Back with a bang!

Exciting filly Contradic (near side) - won at 20/1 for us

The last two month have been horrible, so it's always good to end such a horrible run with a big winner. Thanks to the admirable filly Contradict things look much brighter now as she won her race at Salisbury today in really good style despite drifting out to 20/1! It didn't look too good halway through the race when she got a bit outpaced around 4f from home but she was then improving her position on the inside, to kick away from 2f out winning with ease in the end well over by six lengths. Absolutely impressive and evidence enough  that she was far ahead of the handicapper, as spotted by me  when she ran so eye-catchingly at Goodwood recently. One would assume now that there is still some improvement left in her and that she can turn into a 90 rated handicapper or an even better filly if she steps up in trip again.

Indian Chief in contrast was a bit of a disappointment. He travelled really well until 2f out in the Dante, when he was eventually asked for an effort. But he was then badly hanging and running away from the whip, throwing his chance away, while still finishing 3rd in the end. He has still allot to learn but remains an interesting prospect.