It's bets free time...

No suitable bet yesterday and no selection for today. I find it hard to be confident about horses chances on the awful ground that appears on UK's racetracks at the moment - thank you rain! And also tonight's racing at Wolverhampton is not very appealing. But that's not a problem. It's not required to have a bet just for the sake of having one. Only discipline is the way to success. Let's wait for the right chances. They will come surly. 

Exciting times lying ahead anyway. Friday and Saturday it's Breeders Cup and the following Tuesday it's time for the race that stops a nation: The Melbourne Cup! Have to say personally I'm not really that excited about the Breeders Cup this year. But the Melbourne Cup is one of these races that I'm looking forward to the whole year. Last years renewal was a real thriller, we all remember the photo finish between Dunaden and Red Cadeaux I suppose. If not, then let's refresh your memories...

Kingsbarns new Derby favourite...

Kingsbarns - winner of the Racingpost Trophy

Things worked to perfection today. Two selections = Two wins! Can't be much better. Kittens ran out an impressive winner at Wolverhampton despite being ridden way off the pace which brought her in a bit of trouble turning for home but she got a clear run on the outside eventually and had just too much in hand. She's won easily in the end. I think she's well able to win again but lets wait what the handicapper has to say about this performance. 

Highlight of the day though was the Racingpost Trophy at Doncaster of course. I felt quite bullish about Kingsbarns chances - and rightly so as we know now after the race. He travelled like a dream, quickened nicely and won well enough in the end, even though he was very green and inexperienced. But no wonder as this was only his secondcareer  start. He will improve massively for this run and looks an exciting prospect indeed. The bookies reacted in dramatic fashion, installing him the 4/1 favourite for the Derby next year, best priced with Ladbrokes at 8/1. I'm certainly not tempted at this price and I'm not quite sure if he's a Derby horse but I'm pretty sure that he is a very, very good horse that has a great future. 

After a losing run of seven consecutive bets this was important today. I was very confident in both horses and I have full confidence in my methods. Since the restart of the blog everything works very well and the first full month resulted in a fine profit of 53.50pts from 38 bets. That is very satisfying to see, though I'm not quite happy with the strike rate. This is something I have to address and to work on.

Saturday 27th of October...

15.05 Doncaster: Kingsbarns @ 85/40 Betfair - 6pts win

I think Kingsbarns is potentially a superstar and a cut above his rivals in this race. The way he won on his debut at Navan was visually stunning. The form is nothing special indeed but the way he kicked away from the field 2f out having been able to produce a nice turn of foot on heavy ground was absolutely superb. He only can improve on that effort and has a huge potential I suppose. 
 


21.15 Wolverhampton: Kittens @ 6/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

Kittens ran a massive race at Pontefract three weeks ago when she was travelling well in rear of the field until she made a big move on the inside between 5f and 3f out to take suddenly the lead. She kicked for home 2f out and looked a big threat but just got a bit tired on dead ground and finished only 3rd eventually. She performs best on a fast surface normally though. I think she showed that she could be easily better than her currant mark suggests and the switch back to the All-Weather should be in her favour actually. She also drops in class here and is the horse to beat in this race in my mind.

Friday 26th of October...

16.25 Doncaster: Miss Blink @ 17/2 VC - 3pts win

She is down to an interesting handicap mark and gave me the impression on her most recent run that she's in good order. She travelled best of all at Ripon in August but saw here stamina stretched over 12 furlongs on softish ground. The drop back to 10f should see her able to finish much better as she's also 1lb below her last winning mark and four wins from nine starts over this distance. The soft ground at Doncaster today shouldn't cause a problem as she has winning form in this sort of conditions either.

Thursaday 25th of October...

14.00 Southwell: El Dececy @ 10/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

El Dececy is back in form considering his fine run at Bath last time out. He was set to make all as usually but went a suicidal pace in my mind, yet he had most of the field off the bridle till 3f out while travelling not badly through the race himself. He was never expected to come home over 10f at this pace and he had to pay tribute in the closing stages to it indeed, fading in the final furlong completely. He still managed to finish fourth and this performance suggests to me that El Dececy is better in form than the bare result might suggest in first glance. He's back at Southwell tomorrow, a track where he's done very well in the past as a 2x course winner and additional two close 2nd places in ten starts. He also drops in distance back to his probably ideal trip of 1m. He's also very well handicapped and has Adam Kirby on board who manoeuvred him to two wins in the past already. So loads looks right in place for El Dececy and from his low draw he should be able to get the early lead which is so vital lead for him.

Ascot & Frankel via Wolverhampton & Bath...

I've been to a three days long trip to the UK with a friend last week - main purpose was horse racing of course. We made it to Wolverhampton on Friday, Ascot on Saturday and Bath on Sunday. Quite a full program I'd say and indeed it was exhausting and expensive - but well worth every penny!

Wolverhampton on Friday was the first stop. A lovely track I really have to say. You don't really get a right impression of the track on TV where it looks usually a rather dreary and far from exciting place. Quite the opposite is the truth though I think. It wasn't overcrowded on this Friday and it surely is a small course but with excellent facilities. Everything is close to you... parade ring, betting facilities, actual racetrack, bar... Btw. they have a lovely bar with wonderful couches to relax and from where you can get a look through an extra large glass window-wall to see the jockeys weighing in while you're nipping on your pint. Brilliant stuff! Racing under floodlights is extra special as well - for me at least and it's been overall a wonderful, friendly and relaxed atmosphere. So I really have to say Wolverhampton was a pleasant surprise. Never thought this track could be that lovely. If I compare it with the other two All-Weather tracks which I've seen so far - Lingfield and Kempton - I'd say Wolverhampton is just a class above them.

It was all about Ascot and Frankel on Saturday of course. Made it from Birmingham on a direct way to the track. Even three hours before the first race the place was already quite crowded. But that was nothing compared to what was still to come indeed. Time was really flying anyway, the first races went on and a real buzz was in the air. The excitement about Frankel was palpable all over the place and everything that happened before the fifth race was just the prologue actually. I made it after the third race already in the the parade ring and never left my place there down at the rails till the big showdown. The ring was packed before the fourth race anyway but nobody left it to watch the actual race, everyone remained there to keep their good position to be able to watch Frankel as close as possible when he finally would walk into the parade ring. Excelebration won really well then and that all was nice, he deserved his lap of honour of course but - without disrespect - no one really cared as the moment of truth drew closer. And then Frankel finally appeared in the parade ring welcomed by a hurricane of applause. He looked calm and relaxed I thought, really well and happy with himself. 

When Frankel left the parade ring the big run started. Not Frankel's run - not yet at least - but the run of the people towards the grand stand. Never experienced something like that before. It was a bit chaotic even more as the grand stand was practically full and it wasn't possible to get in there so I had to choose the outside route and "climbed" a little tree (or something like that) just beside the main stand as many other people did too to see at least something. To be honest it felt like the best place in the whole house. I had an amazing overview over the stand, the people and the track. But then... everything happened so quickly. The race started and suddenly the field already turned for home. When the people saw that Frankel was still on the bridle 2f out the roar from the crowd was just unbelievable. It was the explosion of what accrued the whole day... it was really one of these moments... "I was there". Probably I'll never forget standing there up on this three watching Frankel winning his final race while Ascot erupted. After the race it was again all about running to get a good place in the parade ring to welcome back the invincible. That were unbelievable scenes. I saw many people with tears in their eyes... it all was really touching and Frankel received a wonderful farewell when he finally made two laps of honour later in the parade ring under the frenetic applause by the crowd. He looked in the crowd all the time time during the laps, ears pricked and it was like as if he knew he's the star, he's the best... he certainly enjoyed it. What a horse he is...

Overall it was just an amazing experience at Ascot on Saturday. The atmosphere was incredible, the races were mostly really thrilling and £26 for the ticket was a real bargain as the memories of this day are just invaluable. Have to say I didn't have a single bet that day though. It was all about the sport and the atmosphere for me...

Third and last stop was Bath. The normal grandstand enclosure ticket was expensive with £18 I have to say and I found it a bit weird that there where long queues before the entrance of the track just 10 minutes before the off of the first race. But enough criticized. The track itself is wonderful. A big crowd turned up for the last raceday of the year and the atmosphere was wonderful. People had fun, were enjoying a couple of pints while watching good sport. Have to say the view from the stand is excellent. You can overview the whole track, it's pretty close all, almost intimidate. Weather was fine too so this was an excellent finish of the three days long trip - surly a memorable journey. 

You can find more pictures of this trip at: https://www.facebook.com/HorseracingInternational

Frankel

Wednesday 24th of October...

A very close second for Panama Cat who was narrowly denied which shows I was pretty much right with my prediction for improvement over 1m for for her but it didn't convert into a profit unfortunately. Climaxfortackle ran a decent race without being really dangerous.

19.50 Kempton: Everleigh @ 10/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

 This filly's chance is very much underestimated in this race I feel. She won a maiden on her third start in good style from the front, found a good Newmarket Handicap too hot then but was extremely impressive last time out at Kempton. That certainly wasn't a bad Nursery and the winner looked pattern class but Everleigh was surly the horse to take out of the race. She was 4f out outpaced and as a result relegated to the rear of the field when turning for home but it was difficult not the like the way she stayed on in the closing stages as she finished like a train on the outside. That suggests that the step up to 1m will be absolutely in her favour as also should be the drop in class. She finished that day in front of some good horses and I think a mark of 77 is not quite reflecting her ability with further improvement expected over the new distance on her only third handicap start either. She's lightly raced and I'd be surprised if she wouldn't run a big race tomorrow.



20.20 Kempton: Triba I D @ 15/2 VC - 2pts win

Lightly raced maiden who gave a promising handicap debut lto at Kempton. He had to overcome the widest draw in that race and was pretty unsettled in the early stages pulling hard and using valuable energy. Yet he travelled best of all till 2f out in rear of the field but had to make allot of ground as was last of all at this stage. He finished very well eventually but the challenge came simply to late. I think he's better than the bare form suggests considering the wide draw and the way he was racing in the early stages and I think he could be a good deal better with further improvement expected on his second handicap start. This is a very weak race and he looks well in the weights here and I think he could prove too good for his rivals here.

Wednesday 23rd of October...

14.50 Yarmouth: Panama Cat @ 11/2 Bet365 - 3 pts win

This filly really caught my eye in her most recent run at Catterick. She was soon outpaced over a sharp 6f trip at Catterick, a track that favours prominent ridden horses in my mind. Panama Cat was relegated to the rear of the field and made her jockey to work hard to keep her in in the race. She was way behind the leaders turning for home but stayed on super well in the closing stages to finish only 1½ beaten in fourth place eventually. That goes down as an excellent performance in my book. She demonstrated that she handles soft ground which will be vital tomorrow at Yarmouth and the step up in distance should be in her favour. Of course is still a big ask to race on heavy ground and 2f more but if she stays then she has a big chance to go close here.



15.20 Yarmouth: Climaxfortackle @ 16/1 Paddy Power 1 pt win

There might be not that much speaking for Climaxfortackle's chance here in first glance as she's yet to win a race on turf but I think that the ground is not really an issue for her actually. In fact she was desperately unlucky last time out at Leicester in a big sprint handicap. She travelled well enough but was then hampered in the closing stages and after that when she found her rhythm back a clear run denied too. She couldn't have been unluckier and would have gone much closer with a clear run. It was a messy race and the horse she interfered with there won in her next start ironically. So this form works out well actually. Step up in trip to 7f should be rather in Climaxfortackle favour as she won over further and for the ground issue it looks as if soft ground brings out the best of her on turf. So overall there is something to like about her chance as she's also down to an interesting mark.

Monday 22th of October....

Three days no bets as I've been to a trip to the UK - for horse racing of course. Visited Wolverhampton and Bath racecourse but the main purpose of this trip was of course to watch Frankel's final appearance at a racetrack. All I can say is: It's was an unforgettable day at Ascot! Some pictures and a report will follow later when I find a bit of time...

16.00 Windsorr: Freddy Q @ 22/1 VC - 1.5pts Eeach Way

 He was one week ago already my BBOTD and I keep faith in him despite a poor performance lto as all from last week still applies bar the facts that the horse drops in class what surly should be rather in his favour of course and that he drops in distance back to 10f over what he won this year already and what might suits him better as his stamina is probably stretched too much over 12f on heavy ground.

 Freddy Q looked to be in excellent form here at Goodwood three weeks ago when racing for the first time for new connections. He travelled like a dream through the race and looked the most likely winner 1f out, though he didn't have an answer to the strong finish of the eventual winner in the final 100y or so. Yet this was clearly a very fine effort for what he gets only one pound up in the mark. He won earlier this year of his current mark off 81 at Sandown but he has also excellent course form to offer as he won here last year and ran so well lto. He does handle soft ground very well either and the further step up in trip to 12f should be in his favour. De Sousa is booked for the ride which is bonus in addition to all what makes Freddy Q already an interesting runner in this race here.

Thursday 18th of October...

Nice winner again yesterday. Aubrietia won very well at 11/2 SP thanks to BOG! Kinglami ran a fine race too, finished only 2nd though. That makes him a really frustrating horse unfortunately and it looks as if he really needs to have everything in right place to win of his current mark which means I got it wrong in that regard as he's obviously not well handicapped but rather very much in the grip of the handicapper. But who want's to complain, three winners the last two days, which results in a really nice profit.

17.00 Wolverhampton: Dance The Rain @ 11/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Think Dance The Rain ran much better than the bare form suggests last time out. She dwelt in the stalls and raced wide all the time without any cover. She travelled smoothly though till 2f out while she came then under pressure and ran out of petrol. The winner was not to catch this day anyway and she was eased down in the final furlong. She switches to the All-Weather now for the first time and drops in class as well. She's also running of a career lowest mark and considering that she was very competitive earlier the year in better races of higher marks I'd assume that she should go really well today here.

Wednesday 17th of October...

After a few unlucky days it was just a matter of time till my selections would finally go in. Both selections have won pretty well today, even though Arctic Lynx won in a photo. Great profit for the day anyway and I hope I can continue this little run... 


16.50 Nottingham: Aubrietia @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Aubrietia had a massive year so far winning four races and looks still on the upward. She was desperately unlucky in a very messy race at Leicester last week. She had an excellent position on the inside rail actually and looked going the strongest for a long way but from 2f out she has been heavily hampered. She still made headway after a first slight bump but a second one cost her every chance when she was kind of in a sandwich. She still managed to finish sixth what I'd consider a fantastic performance overall and which suggests that she is still on a winnable mark. She drops in trip back to 5f tomorrow, a trip she's two from two and she's back at Nottingham, a track she won at on her sole start. She's also down in class. That all makes her the horse they all have to beat in my mind despite being 9lb above the last winning mark.

17.10 Lingfield: Kinglami @ 6/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

After breaking his maiden tag at Kempton in August he's gone close in all his last starts while always travelling well but failing narrowly either. I thought the most eye-catching and interesting performance was the most recent one, when he stepped up to 1m for the first time. He really travelled well that day at Kempton but had a long way through the whole field to go in the home straight from the rear of the field and that was a mission impossible to catch the eventual winner who made all from the front. He finished in impressive fashion though, staying on extremely well and it confirmed that he has no problems to stay the trip anyway. He dropped 1lb for this effort surprisingly and really gets a chance by the handicapper I think while staying over over one mile but switching to Lingfield's All-Weather track for the first time which I feel could suit his running style way better. He's still lightly raced and can improve further over this trip and should have a cracking chance of winning here in this race as the bottom weight.

Tuesday 16th of October...

19.20 Wolverhampton: Arctic Lynx @ 11/2 VC - 3pts win

Was my selection eight days ago already and wrote this about him at that time:

"He looked a bit high in the weights this summer but his most recent performance in a ultra competitive sprint at Sandown really caught my eye indeed.He was a bit outpaced in the middle of the race bust still travelled okay till 2f out or so when he had though a wall of horses in front of him and nowhere to go. He switched to the inside eventually and finished the race nicely only hands and heels ridden and surly could have gone closer with a clear run. This was a pretty messy race but the form works out really well with Face The Problem being subsequently placed and also a winner in very hot class 2 sprints and subsequent winners Kyleakin Lass & Ajjaadd. Arctic Lynx drops in class today, back in a class 4 Handicap and he goes up in distance, back over 6f - all his wins came over this distance so this should definitely suit - he's done well on the All-Weather in recent years as well and also drops 2lb in the mark. In addition he has the very talented apprentice Michael J M Murphy in the saddle who takes off another 5lb and which must give Arctic Lynx all in all a massive chance here today."

Same applies today as I thought he was unlucky not to finish closer lto as he was slightly hampered and didn't have the clearest run in the closing stages. He should go well today again as he is able to race off the same mark again.



20.50 Wolverhampton: Hard Road @ 7/2 VC - 3pts win

Still a maiden but the most recent performance was excellent und suggests that he's in fine form and poised to win a race. He was racing there in rear of the field and had to go wide around the home bend to make headway while not in best position though when the leaders kicked away off a slow pace. Suddenly a massive gap between the leading trio and the rest of the field developed and all horses from behind had no chance whatsoever. Hard Road though ran on very well and finished a fine fourth. Despite that he's down another 1lb in the mark and that should only enhance his chance here today.