Friday 12th of October...

17.20 York: Icebuster @ 5/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

Icebuster really regained his form in recent weeks staying on in eye-catching fashion twice at Sandown while responding very well to the step up in trip to 12f for the first time at Kempton two weeks ago when he finished very strongly without getting the hardest of rides. He had a wide draw to overcome that day and had to switch to the outside to get a clear run in the closing stages which surely didn't help his cause. He still finished an excellent 3rd in the end. He only gets up 1lb for this effort but switches back to the turf, but he runs again over 12f tomorrow. This Amateur Rider's Handicap looks weaker than the races he contest in recently and with the fine form he brings into the race I think he should go really close. Mr. Millman takes off another 3lb off the mark what surly helps as this guy is riding pretty well actually. It's serious business for Icebuster tomorrow and I'm pretty confident in his chance actually.



19.45 Wolverhampton: Madame St Clair @ 15/2 VC - 2pts win
This 3yo filly is poised to win finally a race again after a couple of excellent efforts in the last number of month. She won a poor seller comfortably by 5 lengths in June, had then a small break but confirmed the promise with two fine performances at Kempton and Leicester when she finished subsequently 2nd. She had an off day at Lingfield after that but made amends at Salisbury nine days ago when she stepped up to 14f for the first time. She travelled well in rear of the field and produced a strong run on the outside of the field in softish ground conditions. The young and inexperienced jockey lost his whip 2f out unfortunately which was not an advantage in a driving finish. Madame St Clair finished a 3 lengths beaten 2nd in the end but came miles clear of eventual third. Again a really good performance which confirms that she's holding very well her form. She'll be back on the All-Weather which shouldn't be a problem as she's produced good form on this surface already. I'm a bit worried about her hold-up style though as this is not always an advantage at Wolverhampton. But I feel she has a wonderful chance to finally get her second career success anyway as she's so well in form and looks well able to win off her current mark.

Thursday 11th of October...

15.40 Ayr: Breezolini @ 10/1 Betfair - 2pts win

Breezolini ran a fantastic race at Hamilton three weeks ago. He was slowly into stride and bit behind the field early on as a result of this what never is really an advantage over six furlongs obviously. But he really ran on very well in the closing stages to finish a fine third in a competitive Handicap. He's never won over six furlongs in his career so far but I don't think that he doesn't stay this distance actually. The way he ran on well on heavy ground lto really suggest that the distance is no problem whatsoever. Just three races ago he won pretty well a 5f sprint at Doncaster in heavy conditions as well but was he was outpaced 3f out there actually while he finished strongly in the end to win comfortably. He went only 3lb up for this win and I feel his most recent performance confirmed that he is competitive of this mark and also capable of going close over 6f. He drops back into class 4 company and this race here tomorrow is weaker than the last one indeed. so I really can see an ideal chance to finally win over 6 furlongs tomorrow.

Wednesday 10th of October

20.30 Kempton: Whitby Jet 6/1 Bet365 - 3pts win
I thought Whitby Jet ran a massive race at Lingfield recently. He stepped up to 11.5f for the first time and was ridden very patiently as he was held up and travelled well enough in rear of the field many lengths off the pace. That meant though he had to make loads of ground in the closing stages if he wanted to have a say about the outcome of the race. It turned out that he gained an awful load of ground in the final three furlongs indeed as he powered home to be only beaten by 2 lengths in the end. He could have gone much closer however if he wouldn't have had so much to do I suppose. Whitby Jet drops one pound in the mark for this effort which brings his mark down to 70. He's back on the All-Weather tomorrow, a surface he has never won at but has been placed four times in six starts. This will be then only his second start of a distance further than 10f and he shaped as if he really relishes this step up which means he could be now easily well handicapped. It's a competitive race here tomorrow, but Whitby Jet may improve again and take advantage of his slipping mark. In addition the excellent apprentice Michael J M Murphy is booked for the ride which can be only a bonus as this guy has a 33% strike rate at Kempton this season.

Tuesday 9th of October...

No 'luck' today whatsoever. All three selections ran very well and gave me a run for the money, they didn't come really close to win it, though. All three selections finished 3rd in the end, which is close, but obviously not close enough unfortunately. I thought Arctic Lynx was a bit unlucky as he had some in-running trouble and would have gone a bit closer with a clear run I suppose. What means he's one to keep an eye on if turned out the next time.

14.00 Catterick: Just Paul @ 6/1 Bet365 - 3 pts win

I totally ignore his first three starts in maidens as it makes much more sense to judge the horse on its most recent run, the first one in handicap company. I thought that was a pretty interesting performance as he bounced well out off the gates actually but was then badly bumped in to the rails by another horse in the early stages of the race and as a result of this he lost his good early position and was relegated to the rear of the field which was an awful place to be that day at Catterick as almost all winners at this meeting won their races from the front or prominently ridden. Just Paul though travelled smartly through the race nonetheless till 2f out and made some good progress on the inside rail in the closing stages, however the leaders where gone and not to catch. He finished third in the end as the best one of the horses coming from the rear of the field and I think this was a very decent performance taking all the circumstances into account. He remains on the same mark for tomorrow but drops in distance. That looks not entirely in his favour according to his pedigree but his sire won over 5f & 6f as a 2yo and also showed a preference for softish going which will be encountered at Catterick tomorrow. So that should be definitely in favour for Just Paul then who also drops down in to class 6 here tomorrow which is a really poor race anyway while his good performance lto came in a solid class 4 nursery. With further improvement expected on his only fifth start and with conditions likely to suit I think he can give young apprentice David Bergin a first success at Catterick.



20.00 Wolverhampton: Xinbama @ 12/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Simply don't understand the price for Xinbama who comes into the race after two eye-catching performances. I thought he ran a mighty race at Sandown when he was a clear run denied over 3f out yet finished strongly when finally in the clear in a good class 4 Handicap, while he was also not the luckiest one at Wolverhampton last time out when he found life really difficult in the home straight, though he ran on very well when he had the room to do so. Both performances gave me the impression that he's in excellent form and well able to win of his current handicap mark, while the handicapper obviously doesn't agree with me as Xinbama dropped 2lb since the Sandown run. I'm not complaining about this though. He's now 2lb below his last winning mark even though this success came on turf at Beverly, but he has also winning form on the All-Weather to offer. Wolverhampton can be often a nightmare for horses that coming from behind like Xinbama and this is actually not a bad race if you consider that it is only a class 5 handicap for 3yo at Wolverhampton on a Tuesday night, but I think the price is a good deal too big for his chance here anyway.

Monday 8th of October 2012...

16.00 Wolverhampton: Arctic Lynx @ 7/1 Betfair - 2pts win

He looked a bit high in the weights this summer but his most recent performance in a ultra competitive sprint at Sandown really caught my eye indeed. He was a bit outpaced in the middle of the race bust still travelled okay till 2f out or so when he had though a wall of horses in front of him and nowhere to go. He switched to the inside eventually and finished the race nicely only hands and heels ridden and surly could have gone closer with a clear run. This was a pretty messy race but the form works out really well with Face The Problem being subsequently placed and also a winner in very hot class 2 sprints and subsequent winners Kyleakin Lass & Ajjaadd. Arctic Lynx drops in class today, back in a class 4 Handicap and he goes up in distance, back over 6f - all his wins came over this distance so this should definitely suit - he's done well on the All-Weather in recent years as well and also drops 2lb in the mark. In addition he has the very talented apprentice Michael J M Murphy in the saddle who takes off another 5lb and which must give Arctic Lynx all in all a massive chance here today. The wide draw, though, can be a bit tricky sometimes at Wolverhampton and it looks a competitive race, therefore I make it only a 2pts win bet.



16.50 Windsor: Hurricane Lady @ 5/1 VC - 3pts win

Very impressive performance at Leicester last time out for Hurricane Lady who raced in rear of the field and travelled like a dream for a long time till she kicked quite easily away from the rest of the field in the final furlong. She looked to have a bit in hand and is obviously very much back in form. She went only 6lb up in the mark for this really comfortable win which looks pretty lenient to me. Sure, she has to overcome a career highest mark and takes a step up in class but she travelled and won so smartly two weeks ago that I'm expecting a big performance again. Soft conditions should be in her favour anyway and she ran a super race here at Windsor last year when she was unlucky to finish only a half a lengths beaten second. So track is fine as well and I feel she is a pretty big price for all that actually.

17.00 Wolverhampton: Quiet Appeal @ 7/1 Bet365 - 2 pts win

Quiet Appeal really comes down to a very handy mark now again and being back on the All-Weather will surly help her to be competitive tomorrow. I think her recent forms are largely to ignore as last time out for example she raced on bottomless ground at Hamilton, something she doesn't like at all and she was really keen and pulling hard in the early stages of the race either. That must have cost valuable energy therefore it was no surprise to see her well beaten in the end. But she is now 5lb below her last winning mark, which came on a sound surface at Beverly earlier the year and one pound below her last AW winning mark. She usually runs very well on the All-Weather anyway and has already won over course and distance. She should go well tomorrow I think.

One for the Arc...

Well, I said yesterday there wont be a selection for today but after working myself intensively through the Arc card I've to say it is impossible for me to leave one horse alone that I really fancy. It's a big price, it's only a 1pt win bet therefore and the pressure is not that big but I do really think it is a wise bet in a tricky race...

Bayrir - underestimated in the Arc

15.25 Longchamp: Bayrir @ 22/1 VC - 1pt win

 I think this years Arc is a wide open affair and I can see a winner for a big price again as we had with Danedream last year as I'm not really convinced by the horses at the head of the betting marked for various reasons. Most appeal at a pretty massive price makes Bayrir to me. I don't really understand why he's more than double the price of Sanois, who of course must have a good chance today but I think the same applies to Bayrir. He won four of his six career starts, all this year and he improved all the way through the season. He landed his first Group 1 at Arlington in August when he won the Secretariat Stakes and I thought his performance in the Prix Niel was a very fine one. Connections of Bayrir had obviously the same impression as they supplemented him for 100k for the Arc as this was not the plan in first hand. 

But trainer Royer Dupre said that they were taken by surprise by Bayrir's performance in the Nil as he was nowhere near fit in that race and that he doesn't want to wait till the Breeders Cup as he feels Bayrir can improve further which gives him a chance in the Arc. He is lightly raced indeed and should be okay on the ground, and it will be only his second start over 12 furlongs, so there is every chance that he can be even better than what he showed so far. The draw is a concern, though. He's to come from barrier 14 which is far from an advantage of course but this is something I feel is more than reflected in the price and taking everything into account I think Bayrir is very much overpriced.

Two winners on Saturday...

Mince wins in a photo at Ascot today

Saturday was an excellent day I suppose with two winners. Peachez finally managed to win a race again after hitting four times the crossbar in a row in recent weeks. She made a big move 3f out at Wolverhampton today and was delivered much earlier than in most of her last starts. That was the trick for her here to be successful. Mince, my biggest bet today, showed great attitude to win the Group 3 sprint at Ascot in a photo. She surly is better on decent ground but really showed tremendous will to win today. Excellent performance again and she should be able to improve again. The first bet of the day, El Manati, went close in 3rd, but was slightly hampered in the closing stages, so maybe a shade unlucky and still one to keep an eye on. Rhossili Bay finished 3rd as well but was a good deal beaten actually and a bit disappointing considering that I made him a 4pts strong win bet. 

But I don't want to complain too much. The week ended certainly on a high, with four winners and a healthy profit. This is the right way and and I can assure you I found some interesting horses that caught my eye in this week again. I'm as confident as never before in what I'm doing anyway. There wont be a selection for tomorrow, though. It's Arc day, I know, but it will be day only for the joy of racing.I have no horse running from my list and that means full attention is towards the great races at Longchamp tomorrow. Loads of great horses, fantastic races... it's what racing is about and it's important never to forget the love and passion for the sport. It's not all about betting. And that's why I really hope Camelot and Frankie can win the big race. What a fanstastic story that would be. But I'd not bet on it...

Saturday 06/10/12...

14.00 Ascot: El Manati @ 9/2 Paddy Power - 3pts win
 

I was very much interested in her when she finished 5th at Salisbury lto. That performance didn't change much for me, as she went off far to fast from the front and tired badly in the closing stages. It certainly takes nothing away from the fact that I believe she's Group class and with Johnny Murtagh booked for the ride she gets the best possible assistance today. Only the ground is a slight worry as she never encountered softish going before. But looking back to her fantastic performance at Leicester, when she had to overcome the widest draw, pulled hard, was unsettled, pulled over from her wide draw to take the lead and won on the bridle by 9 lengths breaking the track record for 2yo lto! It's hard not to be impressed with that performance and she should have much more to offer I feel today. 

15.05: Ascot: Mince @ 5/2 Blue Square - 5pts win

Mince is a lovely progressive filly and she's on a four timer today. I didn't take too much notice of her till her most recent race at York when she showed a performance that really had the WOW factor. She travelled like a dream in a good Listed race and showed an exceptionable turn of foot to score easily by 3½ lengths. Absolutely impressive performance and I don't see why she shouldn't be very competitive in this Group 3 here today again. She's not a finished article and can still improve further, even though the soft ground at Ascot might be not hundred percent ideal today. She has form on that kind of ground though and that means she's very much the horse to beat in this field here.



Wolverhampton 19.20: Peachez @ 11/2 William Hill - 2pts win

Peachez is very consistent but very frustrating as well as she finished four times in a row in 2nd place! That shows she is definitely in excellent form and I thought at Lingfield lto she was poised to win but a poor ride by her jockey cost her the win I felt. She travelled super well as usually in rear of the field but the jockey opted for the inside route where she was a clear run denied, though. The bird was flown when she finally got some daylight. The long time leader was already many lengths ahead, yet she ran on very well in the closing stages. She confirmed her excellent form with this fine performance and if things finally fall right for her she'll win. That can be today I think.



19.50 Wolverhampton: Rhossili Bay @ 7/2 Bet365 - 4pts win

 She didn't show much in three maidens but looked very much improved on her Handicap debut at Wolverhampton lto. She didn't have the best of starts there and had to race in rear of the field, turning for home she was a bit short of room as her jockey decided to opt for the inside route which often is not an advantage at Wolverhampton I feel. Yet Rhossili Bay finished strongly to finish in 3rd just 1¾ lengths beaten in the end. She remains on the same mark so basically gets a chance by the handicapper and with more improvement expected she could be easily too good here today in this poor class 6 Handicap.

Breathtaking Breeders Cup promo...

I'm not the biggest fan of US racing and not of the Breeders Cup either. However the following promo video for the upcoming renewal of the Breeders Cup is just outstanding. Well worth to watch. Enjoy!

Galatian does the business...

Galitian wins by  1¼ lengths at Wolverhampton

Good performance by Galatian today. He won it in good style hugging the rail all along, which can be often not the best route at Wolverhampton. This time it works and Galatian looked too have a bit in hand, he looks a tricky ride though. He was heavily backed through the day, and went off the 4/1 second favourite. The money was right in this case.

Two winners in a row now for me, which is good as I'm back in the profit. I'm still very angry with myself as a result of the foolish 10pts bet on Tuesday though. It's was simply not a clever bet. I didn't follow my rules. I got the right punishment for it. Anyway, the night is still young and I'll have some interesting horses on the list for tomorrow. Have now to work out which of them is really a strong chance and worth a bet. Later more about that. 

> 9 Bets / Staked: 37pts / Profit: +4,50 pts

04/10/12 Thursday...

Dana's Present was a very convincing winner yesterday. Off the mark now but the second selection was disappointing though.

> 8 Bets / Staked: 34pts / Profit: -16,5pts

18.40 Wolverhampton: Galatian @ 7/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Very interesting performance at Kempton last time out when racing on the All-Weather for the first time. He had the widest draw to overcome and looked very much beaten turning into the home straight but finished like a train eventually gaining an awful lot of ground. Normally he is best when ridden very prominently so this has to be considered a very good performance. He's now down to a handy mark again after a couple of poor performances on turf but looked to adapt well to the new surface. He's down in distance today and also takes a drop in class. I think that all will help and he should be very competitive today.

Wednesday 03/10/12...

No win for my selection, disappointing again.

> 6 Bets / Staked: 26pts / Profit: -26pts 

17.40 Kempton: First Fast Now @ 7/2 Bet365 - 3pts win

21 races and just one win - not really encouraging of course, but First Fast Now responded very well to the switch for surface lto when he encountered All-Weather for the first time. He had a bumped start and was early ridden by his young jockey as a result of this and didn't travelled at all but the way he finished the race was promising indeed as he came from last to finish a gallant 2nd just hands and heels ridden. He remains on the same mark but drops in class which should really help to win a race again and to give his young rider the first taste of success.



19.10 Kempton: Dana's Present @ 5/2 Bet365 - 5 pts win

Three eye-catching performances in the row for Dana's Present. The first one at the end of August at Kempton when he travelled super well but was short of room in the closing stages and therefore only finished 3rd. He put that right just two weeks later at the same venue when he equally travelled super well but this time got a clear run and just won it in good style. He went only 4lb up for this easy victory and looked poised to win back-back races just four days ago at Wolverhampton when he travelled best of all again but had absolutely no room to go 1f out what surly cost the win. He remains on the same mark but is back at Kempton a track which should suit a bit better I suppose thanks to the longer home straight. If he gets a clear run tomorrow he'll be hard to beat I think.