Quick Tip - Friday 30th January 2015

16.45 Wolverhampton: Sixties Queen @ 12/1 Coral - 5pts win

Sixties Queen went close lto here at Wolverhampton over when right up with the pace and leading the field into the home straight. She got just tired late and dropped away. First time blinkers where fitted and she was pretty keen in the early parts of the race which probably cost her a better finish. She can race off an almost identical mark, however has a 5lb claimer on board in this apprentice race which will bring her already featherweight further down. This last performance indicated that Sixties Queen has found back to form and since she is six pounds below her last winning mark (9f, Wolv) she should be poised to win soon. She is well drawn today, CP's are off again and I feel the apprentice claim can make the difference today for her.

Quick Tip: Thursday 29th January

18.40 Wolverhampton: Kakapuka @ 13/2 Coral - 5pts win

Kakapuka is on a very handy mark, now dropping another 3lb after an unlucky run at Lingfield lto when he was travelling well but was hampered badly in the home straight - I suspect he wouldn't have won but would have finished a good deal closer than he eventually did. 

Now 7lb below the last winning mark, he looks poised for finding back to the winning ways pretty soon. He has been disappointing since the summer in three runs, however this latest Lingfield performance seems a return to form and off a career lowest mark, I think he has a fine chance to go very close today as he showed earlier in 2014 that he is still able to marks in the high sixties.

Quick Tip: Wednesday 28th January 2015

2.10 Chelmsford: Tatting @ 25/1 Ladbrokes

Tatting has been in poor form since summer, however as a result is dropping down to a very handy mark, 5lb below his last winning mark. He drops in class today as well as in trip and that should help to see him being competitive again. Trainer Chris Dwyer has been in good form recently, saddling two winners of his last four runners in the last two weeks. If Tatting could somehow find back to something close to his best, he must be very competitive in this race.

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If you haven't seen it already, watch the performance of Able Friend to win the Group 1 Stewards Cup at Hong Kong last Saturday. It's pure horse racing beauty! He's likely to contest on Dubai World Cup night as his next target.

Quick Tip - Tuesday 27th January 2015

16.10 Southwell: Class 6 Handica, 7f - This is a very weak race and that pulls it wide open for anyone to win. Hard to trust the horses at the head of the market and for that reason I give the seasoned veteran Cyflymder a chance to run a big race. He hasn't won in five starts here at Southwell, however he performed well here in the past when placed, so the surface isn't an issue. 

He comes down to a more realistic mark again now, after he went up in the summer for success at Lingfield. He is 1lb above this last winning mark but has been a fine runner-up only half a lengths beaten off 2lb higher subsequently in August. So off 51 he is clearly in with a shout and his record over 7f gives him a very fair chance today to be a big runner in this field. I would expect him to share the lead for most parts of the race probably, but given the fact that he stays further, it may work to his advantage and he may be able to pull out a bit more from the front when it matters. 

Selection: Cyflymder @ 20/1 VC

Quick Tip - Monday 26th January 2015

15.40 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 7 furlongs - Lightly raced Mops Angel is prominent in the betting and for good reasons. A winner of her last race, she has been more than fair assessed by the handicappers and could do well win again. Stepping up in trip may not be a problem and she'll be hard to beat. Main danger could be veteran Smalljohn, though. He didn't look exactly like going back to the winning ways in recent starts, though he wasn't far beaten the last two and seems to regain some form at least. Dropping another 2lb in the mark, he is now as low as he hasn't been for five years, and since then he has always won off higher marks. Obviously he is not getting any younger and probably his true merit lies around a mark off 60-66 these days. But rated 63 at the moment, with a decent apprentice in the saddle and the drawn in box 1, he should have ideal conditions to adopt his front-running tactics. There aren't any excuses today and I expect him to outrun his price tag.

 Smalljohn @ 10/1 VC

Quick Tip: Wednesday, 21st January 2015

6.30 Kempton: Harry Hurricane @ 5/2 PP

Looks quite a good Handicap with some useful sorts. That says Blue Aegean is a very short favourite, despite winning really well at Chelmsford last weekend. Stepping up to 6f shouldn't pose a problem for him and turned out under penalty today means he can race off lower than he has to once the handicapper has assessed his mark, but of top weight in this field, it is not a given that he romps home. Recent CD maiden winner Volunteer Point looks a very useful filly and her opening mark is more than fair. She ought to go very close. But I feel Harry Hurricane is clearly the one to beat. He got finally off the mark in a Wolverhampton maiden over 7f earlier this month, which looks useful form with the runner-up winning a maiden subsequently. The drop in trip today is fine I think and his maiden form as a juvenile when he finished runner-up in a Kempton 5f maiden as well as 3rd in a Newmarket maiden is very strong, given what the horses in front of him did. His current looks open to explore further.

Quick Tip: Kempton, Sunday 18th January 2015

15.05 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f - This looks pretty open and a couple of the bigger prices seem overpriced, but mostly I'm interested in My Meteor. Currently a 66/1 shot, he caught my eye with some interesting performances lately and with a slipping mark as well as a 3lb claimer in the saddle, he may outrun this big price today. The trip is a question mark. He won over 6f and often he gives the impression that the minimum trip is too sharp for him these days, but in fact the majority of his wins came over 5f. His recent performance at Southwell over 6f would indicate that the additional furlong is too much for him, as he travelled right to the final furlong marker like one with a big chance, just to fade badly. On the other side, in recent starts over 5f, he was badly outpaced. In November, he produced over that trip argubly his best recent performance, when he travelled eye-catchingly into to the home straight and finished extremely well in 3rd from well off the pace, indicating that an additional furlong would suit. That says if he can reproduce this sort of form over 6f at Kempton today, he can be in the money. 

My Meteor E/W @ 66/1 VC

Preview: Ladbrokes Handicap, Lingfield

2.35 Lingfield: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

Miracle Of Medinah: Group 3 winning juvenile, disappointing last year, though was placed in Listed event once. Won on AW as 2yo, now step up to mile needs to bring out improvement. Not unlikely to get trip but looks on high enough mark.

Tigers Tale: Progressive on the All-Weather. Won couple of times last season and ended year with fine runner-up over CD. Fair & square beaten that day though and career highest required.

Steelriver: Fine second lto at Kempton over 7f. Career highest required. Has never won over 1m in nine attempts. Though once second over 10f.

Melvin The Grate: Improving sort, won well with plenty in hand lto over CD. Up 7lb in the mark, career highest required.

Beach Bar: Still lightly raced, progressive gelding. Unlucky over CD lto when beaten on the line while attempting to make all. Allowed to race off same mark.

Claim The Roses: Lightly raced and progressive on AW. Winner of two races, yet to win beyond 6f but strong staying 2^nd over 7f. Decent return to track at Southwell lto. New trip may bring out improvement.

Lunar Deity: Progressive on AW. Won last two and neck beaten lto. 1lb out off handicap & steep step up in grade. But may have still more to offer on this surface. Likely up with pace. 

Verdict: Tricky race, despite a clear favourite at the head of the market. Melvin The Grate is rightly very popular with punters given his progressive form and strong recent course and distance win. Seven pounts up for that looks fair and it wouldn't surprise to see him go close again. But he is a short enough price in a race that is by no means only about one horse. Beach Bar currently 5/1 is a very interesting alternative. Still lightly raced, he is the winner of a maiden and a narrowly beaten runner-up on the All-Weather in two starts, both over course and distance here at Lingfield. When last seen he had his own way up on front and pulled out more when heavily under pressure in the home straight. Though an exciting handicap debutant got the better of him in the final strides. Beach Bar gets a chance from the handicapper to race off the same mark again and while this represents a step up in class today, he may still be able to improve again and must rate a big danger to the favourite with his profile and weight. Lunar Deity is one pound out off the weights but has a fair chance to run big as the bottom weight after a narrow defeat at Chelmsford last weekend. He is probably right up with the pace and if he can transfer his fine All-Weather profile into this better grade, he'll be thereabouts. The three top rated horses (bar the favourite) look all likely to be found out on their current handicap mark, however good runs for Miracle Of Medinah and Tigers Tale wouldn't surprise. 

Still completely unexposed over this trip is the lightly raced Claim The Roses. He hasn't excelled on turf at all, but has been progressive on the All-Weather. A fine winner at Kempton over 6f and an eye-catching runner-up over 7f subsequently in autumn 2013 proved that he is talented. However he clearly had problems afterwards, with only one run since then last summer with another break until back at Southwell towards the end of December last month. Then dropped back to 6f he ran well enough considering the little racing he had for a while as well as for his fibresand debut and that may set him up well for today. Stepping up to 1m, a trip he has never tried before, however something that looks not unlikely to suit on pedigree. Worth a try at a big price for me.

Beach Bar @ 5/1 William Hill - 5pts win

Claim The Roses @20/1 Ladbrokes - 5pts win

Friday Blog - 16th January 2015

4.45 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 12f - Wide open race, many exposed runners, so it is obvious why Steve Rogers is heading the market. A son of the late Montjeu, stepping up considerably on handicap debut - he must have a really good chance to go close in this field. A mark of 62 is however not particularly lenient, for what he has shown to date and I feel the expected improvement is already very much reflected in the price. Arashi has a chance to follow-up on a recent strong performance, with the weight in favour today. However the drop in trip may not suit all too well. Most interesting runner is the lightly raced five year old gelding Sheila's Heart. He is still a maiden but showed promise in most of his races. 

The drop in trip back to 12f should be ideal today and with the mark slipping further, he is one to take seriously with cheek-pieces fitted for the first time. They may well make a difference, and if they can squeeze out just a bit improvement, then Sheila's Heart will go close. The booking of 7lb claimer Aaron Jones is a big bonus. Not only is his claim a benefit, but this young man is red hot at the moment and riding extremely well for his weight allowance. I expect Sheila's Heart to leave all his ordinary forms behind today and be right there when it matters. 

Sheila's Heart @10/1 William Hill

Wednesday's Blog

We talked about Tempus Temporis yesterday already. He was a value selection on Sundays opening Chelmsford card. Since winners don't come by easy, one has to celebrate if there is something to celebrate. So enjoy the replay of the race and see the impressive performance of this promising Godolphin prospect with your own eyes.

No luck yesterday at Southwell. My two selections did give me a run for the money - to a certain extend at least - but ultimately it is about getting the head over the line first. First selection Ametrine travelled really nicely on the outside for a long time. She clearly takes well to the surface. However she got very tired inside the final two furlongs and was effectively pulled up. I wouldn't quite give up on her yet. With this run under her belt, she may strip fitter and go really well the next time. However the way she almost refused to finish her race yesterday, is alarming and could also mean that she has had enough of the game. Seychelloise on the other hand finished well - however found one rival too good for her. I think she did way too much early on from her draw, was pushed forward and travelled throughout wide. One could also say she simply ran to her level of form, which is a mid-sixties filly, lightly framed with no scope. 

Not much going on today. Some okay All-Weather racing at Lingfield and Kempton. The usual mid-week stuff. Mostly low-grade. Which is not bad if you like it. I do like it, particularly Kempton. Fancy a couple on the card, but will restrict myself to one bet only.

6.10 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap - 7f - Picks Pinta is a rather consistent individual who looked a bit in the grip of the handicapper recently. Down to 72 now, he is however on a mark he is well up to I feel. His best performances came when he was right up with the pace, which was not the case in most of his last starts. So it is interesting to see him fitted with blinkers for the first time today. They may sharpen him up and I would imagine that reverting to positive tactics will see him go really close, and possible achieving a career highest.

Picks Pinta @ 16/1 William Hill

Southwell Betting - Tuesday 13th January 2015

1.45 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m - A poor low grade Handicap with plenty of those usual old warriors going to post here. However the Jarvis filly Ametrine is a bit of an exception and an interesting runner. On her Southwell debut today, you can't be sure if she takes to the surface. More often than not horses struggle on their fibresand debut. I believe the pro's for Ametrine's case outweigh this negative fact, though. This now four year old filly showed a bit of promise as a juvenile, however wasn't quite able to progress an awful lot last season. She moved quickly into low grade Handicaps were she finished third on two occasions, and both forms look at least useful, taken into account that the horses she finished behind did well in the aftermath. 

She ended the year with a poor showing in July and is now back on track after a half year long break. Fitness is a question mark, but Fanning booked and first time blinkers applied, suggest that she is not here for a lazy jog around the course. Ametrine is actually pretty well bred, even though she clearly isn't living up to her pedigree. However off her current mark, she may well have still a bit more to offer, at least in such a poor field. She is still lightly raced, has the potential to improve and the drop in trip to one mile could suit her extremely well I feel. For that reason I'll give her a chance for a bigger price today. 

Ametrine @ 9/1 Coral - 5pts win

2.50 Southwell: Maiden, 6f - This is a very interesting filly going back into maiden company after a couple of decent outings as a juvenile last year. She finished a very fair third here at Southwell over course and distance back in December when last seen in a hot little handicap. She was eased down in the final furlong when it became apparent that she wouldn't be able to challenge for the win, but was only three lengths beaten behind a now 80 rated individual. Seychelloise clearly improved in this run compared to her Southwell debut outing and I believe with this experience under her belt she is poised to do very well on this fibresand surface. She was clearly keen to get on with things here the last time, unlike when she got a first taste of the deep Southwell surface. 

This filly is pretty nicely bred and should have naturally a bit of talent, she looked small and light last year though and on pedigree is expected to improve with age and experience. So turning three years of age now, one would hope she can leave last seasons forms behind. Her mark of 65 is low enough and her profile suggests that a run of subsequent wins is not unlikely, given that she is trained by a certain Mr. Prescott - even though this doesn't really matter in a maiden today. Interestingly Seychelloise is fitted with blinkers for the first time. Maybe she lacked a bit of focus when it really mattered in her starts so far. So this may help her to finish her races better. I suspect that connections are very keen to get a maiden win on the boards with her, as she could be an interesting broodmare prospect in the future, given her breeding. But today is what matters first, and in this not overly exciting field, Seychelloise should have too much on her plate for her rivals.

Seychelloise @ 9/4 Coral - 10pts win


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We had a nice winner on Sunday on Chelmsford City's opening card. Tempus Temporis (7/2) won really well his race by five lengths, pulling clear once unleashed in the home straight. He produced a nice little turn of foot and let his well fancied stable mate far behind. In general it was a very nice day of racing at Chelmsford. A bit of kickback, yes, but this should get better in time. Otherwise the track reminds me very much of Wolverhampton in terms of its layout, even though it seems you need even more a horse with the ability to change gear here, due to the very sharp home bend and the short run-in.

[Photo: www.Guardian.com]

Chelmsford Racecourse opening

A new area for racing in the UK starts today. Well, kind of. Chelmsford Racecourse opens its doors for their first meeting since the course was closed a couple of years ago, back then still referred to as Great Leighs. A massive redevelopment project took place over the time, with new facilities built as well as a grand stand. All is set and go, trails took place and the course has been approved. The BHA allocated fixtures, and now it's time to let the horses lose! Be prepared for Chelmsford playing a substantial role in our daily racing, from now on. For their first meeting, the course has put together a strong card, which will kick-off with a 20k Handicap! So, let's try to find the winner...

12.50 Chelmsford: Class 2 Handicap, 10f

Rebellious Guest: Fair third lto at Lingfield, on realistic mark without being overly well handicapped. Won over 10f once but trip probably not his optimum. Big weight to shoulder. First time headgear

Spes Nostra: Bit unlucky lto at Wolverhampton when short of room at crucial stage, beaten in final strides penultimate start. High enough in the mark but likely pace angle in the race.

Docs Legacy: Impressive winner when last seen at Wolverhampton in November. Thriving on the All-Weather. Career highest required today.

Swing Alone: Didn’t take to fibresand lto and outstayed at Lingfield over 12f. Won well over preferred 10f at Lingfield in December. Consistent, optimum trip today and on fair mark.

Tryster: Very promising last summer but green and badly hanging when last seen at Newmarket after travelling strongly. Absence since a worry. Should take to AW on pedigree. 

Gaelic Silver: On a four-timer, in spending form, optimum trip today but much more required as well a career highest.

Tatting: Looks very much up against it and didn’t seem to stay 10f in the past. 

Godolphin's lightly raced Tryster proves to be a popular choice in the betting and it is easy to see why. He could easily the one with the most improvement and talent in this field. On the three occasions he appeared racing last summer, he showed potential. A good debut, followed by an impressive maiden success, while on Handicap debut he travelled like the winner until suddenly hanging his chances literally away. Considering that he was off for half a year, though, one has to be cautious and for that reason I'm happy to oppose him for a very short price. 

Rebellious Guest appears to me to be still too high in the weights, in order for him to win this competitive race. While his mark comes down, he has still to shoulder a huge top weight today and that may see him struggle. Gaelic Silver has been in tremendous form lately, question mark is if he can improve again to be competitive in a strong race as this is? His price tag is too short for me to give him the benefit of the doubt. Docs Legacy looks the rock solid choice in contrast. He won so well when last seen, that he could well be able to defy a 5lb rise in the mark. He is a fair price. 

Two horses are potentially overpriced here in my mind: Spes Nostra is the first one. He loves the All-Weather and was massively progressive on this surface over the years. One can forgive him his latest run, where he found himself short of room at a crucial stage, while in his penultimate start he made all in a very competitive race and just got beaten in the dying strides. He is the pace angle in this race. Says he is likely to be the only one who wants to go forward and that may give him an edge if the field allows him a soft lead. Spes Nostra has yet to win off a mark as high as the current one, but I give him the benefit of the doubt to prove today that he is up to this rating off 90. The other overpriced horse is Wing Alone. He is on a very fair mark, has won races off marks in this range in the past and is back to his optimum 10f trip. Southwell the last time is a form to ignore as he didn't take to the surface, and he was outstayed over 12f before But he won off 88 at Lingfield in fine style before against a runner-up who finished 3rd in a Listed contest as well as being successful in a hot Handicap subsequently. 

Spes Nostra @ 6/1 PP - 5pts win

Wing Alone @ 14/1 VC - 5pts win

2.50 Chelmsford: Conditions Stakes, 1m - Interesting little race with some promising sorts, however I feel it is easy to narrow down the field to the two Godolphin runners. Anonymous John is consistent, but would need to find some substantial improvement for the step up in trip in order to trouble the two boys in blue, and that is not the likeliest thing to happen. Princess Of Paris has a good deal to find while My Mistress is obviously open to improvement but this is also a big ask on her only second start now against the boys. 

Super Kid's Maiden win is a standout form, since he left subsequent Group 3 winner Maftool behind him that day. He went on to finish runner-up to an excellent stablemate in a conditions race at Linfield when seen the last time back in November. Not stepping up in trip, one would hope he could improve for the mile and the pedigree gives him a chance to do so. First time blinkers may help him to stay focused in the closing stages. However given his very short price tag, I believe Tempus Temporis offers better value. The Gosden trained runner left his maiden form behind at Kempton last month when he stormed home to land a class five Handicap. The change of gear was impressive and the way he won with ease was eye-catching. Blinkers first time fitted clearly worked. More is required today, but he should have much more improvement left in him. Tempus Temporis wasn't a cheap yearling, coming at $300k and is obviously nicely bred. So there could be more to come and given that he is more than double the price of his well fancied stable mate, I believe the 7/2 for him are too big.

Tempus Temporis @ 7/2 VC - 5pts win