Belmont Derby - Betting Preview

The inaugural Belmont Derby tonight and some decent horses gonna try to win the big pot. European challenges are lead by impressive UAE Derby winner Toast Of New York. He made an sheer unbelievable transition from winning a class 6 maiden at Wolverhampton to become a run-away-winner of a prestigious Group 2 on the Dubai World Cup night. Question mark is obviously if he can transform this to turf now as he might be a horse that is simply very much suited to synthetic surfaces. His only start on turf is inconclusive, as it was his debut and he was a good deal beaten that day. First time lasix will boost his chances I believe, and he must have every chance to go very close from pole position, and the track, in theory should suit. For all of that though, I can't have him for 5/2. He might well be above this lot, but make no mistake there are some good horses in the field and he first has to beat them. I look elsewhere. 

The other European runners are interesting. O'Brien's Adelaide ran a very good race at Ascot when 2nd behind Free Eagle. That was over 12f and he looked rather beaten for speed than for stamina in my mind. He has fine form over 10f though and ground won't be an issue. He'll go close. 4/1 is a fair price. From the French challengers Gailo Chop makes most appeal. He is a multiple Group winner at this stage, still lightly raced and can improve further. If this kind of contest suits him remains to be seen. The Europeans won't have this all their way though and it might pay to look for value in the domestic challengers. Global View is a Grade 2 winner over 9f on turf, he's by Galileo so the step up in trip could suit. He finished 2nd over a mile behind Bobby's Kitten, staying on nicely. He might be come too late with his challenge though, as he usually is ridden with bit of restraint. So is Dance With Fate, who could be interesting if he can transform his polytrack form to Turf. already mentioned Bobby's Kitten is a really interesting contender. He tries a new trip, never raced that far, but has plenty of stamina on both sire and dam side, suggesting 10f will be absolutely fine. He finished 3rd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last year, when he set the track alight the first half of the race with a record breaking pace. He did well to finish as close as he did in the end in third. He won two Conditions races on Turf this year, but is a Graded winner too from last season. His only disappointing performance came on polytrack. His most recent performance was impressive when he quickened nicely here at Belmont. If he can settle today, he has a major chance, as stamina shouldn't be an issue. But is ability to quicken as well the probable tactical advantage being handily ridden, might be enough to fend off all rivals. Coolmore's Gala Award is another one I want to highlight. He won a Grade 3 over 9f earlier this year and has good recent winning form. His only poor form came on polytrack. He is nicely bred, should improve for the additional furlong on pedigree, and looked in his races always like a grinder, one who can sustain a high pace over a long period, while he is not one who can quicken instantaneously. But since he is ridden usually right up with the pace, he outstays his opposition. That's good skills that he could use today to run a big race. 

Verdict: The home challengers seem to be overlooked in the betting. Bobby's Kitten is a high class runner who has the ability to produce a turn of foot and can race from the front or up with the pace, which should be a tactical advantage at Belmont's turf track. Stamina shouldn't be an issue if he settles. Gala Award has the right tools to win a really big race and this test seems the right one to bring the best out of him. Wide draw is a concern but he should improve for the new trip.

Bobby's Kitten @ 8/1 Betfair - 2pts win

Gala Award @ 16/1 SkyBet - 1pt win

Eclipse Stakes - Betting Preview

The Fugue is a worthy favourite coming into this race with impressive form, since she beat a top class field at Ascot. She has conditions right in favour with the quick ground, and she is the class act, no doubt. However I do wonder if she is quite as effective at Sandown as she was at Ascot. Sandown as a track might not suit her entirely with the stiff finish and usually it rather suits horses that are able to maintain a high speed for a long time, then does it suit horses with a turn of foot. So for that reason I have to take her on, given her current short price. 

Racing Post Trophy winner Kingston Hill was taken out of the Irish Derby last week due to the quick ground. Now he is dropping to 10f after his gallant 2nd in the Epsom Derby behind Australia. The ground at Sandown is quick today, but connections have to take their chance since they didn't run last week. For obvious reasons this counts against him. If on this fast going, over a shorter trip, he has enough speed remains to be seen. He doesn't make much appeal to me though. 

The 2.000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder is stepping up in trip. He ran a very good race behind Kingman at Ascot and given the impression that he might not entierely unsuited by 10f. However given his short price, further improvement is well needed against tough opposition and there are doubts about his ability to get the trip nonetheless, so literally I wouldn't bet on it to stay a fast run 1m 2f contest and I have to pass him. Verrazano is slightly below European G1 class I think and 10f might stretch his stamina too. His limited seemed 9f in the US. We will learn allot about him today though I think. Maybe this is exactly what he wants and the track should suit him I feel. But for all of that, he's not for me in this contest, even if I was a big fan of his in the US. Stable mate War Command might get the 10f trip, given a chance by pedigree and the way he stayed on at Ascot. That says he was still rather disappointing that day as he was in the Guineas. He might simply not be as good a 3yo as he was a juvenile. He has to improve for the new trip a good deal anyway, to be really competitive here. I do like him allot though, yet as a betting proposition he is way too risky. 

Mukhadram and True Story both are grand horses with chances to run their race - if that is good enough, I doubt it. Mukhadram ran well last year in the same race, but is up against it this year. He should find a couple too good again, as he did at Ascot. True Story might well be better over quick ground and 10f then what he showed in his last races. But on the back of one single Listed race success it is hard to like him from a betting point of view. 

 I do really fancy Trading Leather though at big odds of 18/1. He needs fast ground to be seen at his best and he gets these conditions today. His record over 10f is more than decent, given that he won a Listed race over this trip and finished twice runner up in Group races last year, in the Dante Stakes and later the G1 Juddmonte behind Declaration of War, which is pretty good form after all. Obviously he gets further as he is an Irish Derby winner, but therefore Sandown might very much suit his racing style I feel with its stiff finish. I wouldn't reed too much in to his recent flop at Newmarket. He didn't settle at all that day. I feel he is bound to run a big race today though. If that is good enough to win has to be seen, but he should be right there in the shake-up and he is the value in the race in my mind.

Trading Leather @ 18/1 Be365 - 1pt e/w

Big Race Preview - 2014 Durban July

The Durban July - South Africa's greatest and most prestigious race is almost upon us! R3.5 Million are on offer when the 16 starters are set to thunder down the home straight of Greyville racecourse tomorrow afternoon. A distance of 2.200 meters they all have to master, with the chance to become a racing legend as soon as they cross the winning post. Te field is brutally deep this year, with a bunch of super impressive three year olds and some good older horses. All in all this kind of "Super Handicap" promises to be spectacular!

The main contenders: 

Louis The King, 4/1 - 3yo, Triple Crown winner. Won the Gauteng Guineas, the SA Classic and the SA Derby over trips from 7f-12f. Finished 3rd behind Legislate and Rake's Chestnut in the Daily News 2000 lto (10f). Not quite having the run of the race, coming from well off the pace and having to come through the whole field. Stayed on nicely. Should come on for that run and will relish the additional furlong. Class act. However will need an awful lot of luck from his likely position well off the pace and the likely slow pace will count against him. If he wins it, he's the real deal. Can't have him for his short price. 

Legislate, 11/2 - best 3yo in RSA. winner of the Cape Derby, KRA Guineas and the Daily News recently. Has beaten all fancied July runners in that most recent race. Usually races off the pace and has a wide draw. But has the ability to quicken even of a slow pace like no other horse in the country right now. Brutally impressive in all his races this year, the turn of foot is from another world and the only real concern is the trip. Never raced that far and almost caught in the Daily News, be it because he was idling or ran out off steam. But he's a son of a July winner and the way he produced his turn of foot coming from last and around the whole field in the Daily News suggests he has every chance to get the trip. The horse they all have to beat. 

Futura, 13/2 - 3yo colt, just made it into the final field and that under controversial circumstances. The dark/hype horse always talked up since winning a Conditions race in brutally impressive style. Was 40/1 for the July at some stage, is now one of the favourites. However he finished only 3rd in a July trial, needs to improve allot to be competitive here. That says he easily could do so over this trip with the right pedigree and a nice light weight. His public gallop was mightily impressive. Not my type of horse I like to get involved with for this price. Tomorrow will show if all the hype is justified. 

Rake's Chestnut, 15/2: 3yo colt, Lightly raced, only win came over 6f to date. But right pedigree for July and extremely unlucky in the Daily News when close 2nd behind Legislate. Hampered at crucial stage, found his stride again and finished super strongly. Should relish additional furlong. Unexposed and not quite clear if he is able to confirm that run but if he can he's a big runner. Opinions will be divided here. With only one minor win over sprint trip this is not for me. But he's certainly a very interesting contender and I can see why he has many supporters. 

Capetown Noir, 11/1 - 4yo colt, best miler in the country, stylish winner of the premier 1m Grade 1 contest the Queen's Plate earlier this year. Not as strong over further, 3rd in Daily News last year, 7th in last years July, no good recent form. First time blinkers, might have adverse effect. He looks to find it tough to stay this trip and be competitive in such a strong field, even more so as he has a huge weight to shoulder. Hard to fancy.

Espumanti, 12/1 - 4yo filly, talented, De Kock runners always to take serious. Won Betting World 1900 in fine style. Fillies find it often tough in this race and as a 4yo it's not any easier. Big weight to shoulder and while she is classy, it's hard to see her being good enough beating top class 3yo's giving so much weight away. Place claims. 

Captain America, 12/1 - 3yo colt, classy individual, consistent and rarely disappoints, but very aggressive, finds it hard to settle and slightly below top class. Might be better gelding. Better in the weight now compared to the big fancies, but he would need to improve a good deal to win it. Certainly place claims and solid contender though. 

In The Fast Lane, 12/1 - 3yo filly, best three year old filly, multiple Grade 1 winner, stays 10f. Strong recent form, good draw and good weight. However she'll might find it tough against the males here and not sure if the additional furlong suit her entirely. A decent run is surly expected though. 

Halve The Defict, 16/1 - 5yo gelding, connections won the last two July's. Largely seen as the pick of the older horses. Not yet won a G1 but improved with age and nice prep run lto. should get the trip and has the champion on board. Won G2 over 10f nicely earlier this year. One of a few horses who like to be prominent and could easily get run of the race and quicken off a slow pace when it matters. His recorded gallop at home last week looked massive too. Big chance to finish at least in the top five with conditions in favour.

Cherry On The Top, 22/1 - 4yo filly, Triple Tiara winner last year when in form of her life. Not quite as good this year, but distance will suit. Track might not quite suit as more galloping one is her game. Also as a 4yo filly she'll find it very tough in general against this opposition and it's hard to see her any better than running on strongly and finishing in the top five. 

King Of Pain, 33/1 - 4yo gelding, top class animal, won the Grade 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge last month when attempting to make all and holding on super strongly. Stamina is his game and he will relish to go further again. He might well enjoy the run of the race from the front and can set a rather pedestrian, even pace which will suit him to wind it up turning for home. He's tough and genuine. Big negative: top weight, 60kg is a very big ask and he need to be at his absolute best with everything going for him. Not impossible, but a place in the top 5 is absolute within reach. 

Verdict: Louis The King might well turn out the be the real deal, but he has conditions not really favouring him. Legislate is the horse they all have to beat. If he stays, which seems likely, his turn of foot will probably kill them all. His last three performances raised the hair on my neck, and it is well worth to watch as it simply is what racing is all about. 11/2 seems quite generous, taking all into consideration. Halve The Deficit as the pick of the older horses could have a tactical advantage, has good form and I find it hard to see him out of the top five with a chance to quicken at a crucial time and left the rest for wanting. 16/1 too big in my mind. King Of Pain, despite his huge weight, makes each-way appeal as a 33/1 chance. He can go from the front and will give it his all. Super recent form, stays. Might find the way too much win but place claims at least and price is too big imo. 

Legislate @ 11/2 Sportingbet - 3pts win

Halve The Deficit @ 16/1 Sportingbet - 1pt e/w

King Of Pain @ 33/1 Sportingbet - 0.5pts e/w

2013 Durban July - Heavy Metal won the race in a thrilling finish. Can the same connections can make it three in a row today? We'll find it out, at 15.20pm UK time.

Nap Of The Day - 4th of July

19.45 Haydock: Wee Frankie @ 2/1 PP - 5pts win

Wee Frankie won really well on debut, travelling much the strongest and outstaying a subsequent class 3 Handicap winner. His opening mark seems lenient and with natural improvement he should be ahead of the mark. Step up to 10f no problem as he's the son of a Listed/Group 3 winner over that trip and there is plenty of stamina on the dam side, and the way he was seeing out so strongly the 9f at Hamilton, suggests exactly that. Ground won't be an issue and a quite good 5lb claimer on board makes this an almost certainty in my mind.

Selections for Thursday 3rd July 2014

16.20 Haydock: Tiger Lilly @ 4/1 Coral - 3pts win

Very lightly raced, won a maiden in May and followed up with a nice performance at York when staying on. Steps up in trip to 14f today which should bring out loads of improvement on pedigree, where stamina is all over. By Galileo, out of a mare that won over 2m - Tiger Lilly as a lightly raced and completely unexposed filly could be way ahead of her mark today I feel.

15.50 Haydock: Henrytheaeroplane @ 40/1 Betfair - 0.5pts win

Tough task against more experienced horses but this colt looks way overpriced on debut. He nicely bred and has fast ground all over his pedigree, being by Henrythenavigator, out of a G3 winning mare in the US. Might do well with a step up to a mile in time, but should have enough speed to be competitive in this. Clearly one to keep an eye on anyway.

BBOTD - Sunday 29th June

15.40 Salisbury: Among Angels @ 3/1 StanJames - 4pts win

Among Angels won well a maiden on his 2nd start at Windsor and was thrown into deep water in the Windsor Castle where he ran an absolute cracker in my mind. He came from the rear, travelling on the far side well enough, and stayed on super strongly to win the race on his side, while it was a huge advantage to be with the pace on the stands side which was the reason why he finished only 9th overall. But this performance should easily be good enough to win a Listed race in the future, so today could be a good opportunity to prove future prospects. Step up in trip should suit, considering the way he stayed on.

BBOTD: Saturday 28th June 2014

17.15 Newmarket: Urban Dance @ 4/1 PP - 4pts win

Classy individual, lightly raced, and caught my eye on couple of occasions. Most notably lto at Newmarket over 12f when he travelled extremely strongly until the 2f marker, but faded badly soon after on his seasonal reappearance. No surprise for me, as he might not have been fully wound up and also doesn't appear to stay that far as on his two other starts over this trip he faded badly too. Most impressively also a Newmarket last year, when he travelled like the winner until almost the final furlong marker, but didn't find anything once off the bridle, which is very much unlike what Urban Dance showed over 10f before. He should definitely improve from the drop in trip, as on his debut he won at Newmarket nicely over this distance, after being extremely green throughout the whole race, while on handicap debut he found plenty once off the bridle in the closing stages.

Bets: Friday 27th June 2014

18.55 Curragh: 2pt win Won Diamond @10/1 PP + 1pt win Breathe Easy @ 14/1 Coral

Big and competitive handicap but I really like two horses. Won Diamond was a big eye-catcher lto at Naas over 7f on his seasonal reappearance. He didn't get a run on the inside for quite a while in the home straight and just got out late over 1f out, and had to quicken instantaniously. He found quickly his stride and finished the race very strongly in 3rd. Form works out well already. Won Diamond has only won a maiden to date but doesn't have too many miles on the clock, and showed a couple of nice performances last season of higher or similar mark than the current one. Ground and trip won't be an issue and he should have still room for improvement as his sire's offspring progresses often well with age. Only slight worry for me is tongue tied 1st time tomorrow, something I don't like to see as I feel horses hate it and it can be an indicator for breathing problems. But he ran so well earlier this month, it might simply lead to more improvement. 

Breathe Easy is a lightly raced four year old in excellent form. He won/dead heated a nice Handicap at the Curragh in May and followed up with a very strong performance at Leopardstown when he made all from the front, set a decent pace and seemed to go strongly still 2f out, he just tired late and finished 3rd in the end. Drop in trip to a mile might be a good thing after all, since he stays a bit further, something I like in a front-runner and which can be a vital advantage in the stiff and testing Curragh finish. More improvement is likely to come.

BBOTD - Sunday 22nd June

15.45 Gowran Park: Six Of Hearts @ 10/1 VC - 2pts win

The veteran comes down to a good mark and his latest run at Naas over 6f suggested he might be ready to win finally a race again. He was held up, appeared to be slightly outpaced, didn't get a proper run through then having to wait for gaps and finished eventually strongly in the final furlong. He is back over 7f today, which is probably his ideal trip. He has won over course and distance in the past and the fast ground will surly suit as his best form in the past came on ground where the word firm appeared in.

BBOTD - Friday 13th of June

15.40 York: Kalk Bay @ 7/1 PP - 2pts win

Kalk Bay was desperately unlucky on his two starts this year and judged those performances appears to be well poised to win anytime soon. At Poni on his seasonal reappearance he was far off the pace which is always a disadvantage there, was then short of room while travelling best of all, got badly hampered around the final furlong marker, yet found his stride back quickly and charged home in impressive style. More or less the same story at Musselburgh, where he had loads to do from off the pace, and got locked on the inside again. If this horse gets a clear run, it must be hard to beat tomorrow.

BBOTD - Monday 9th of June

19.30 Roscommon: Balmont Flyer @ 11/1 VC - 2pt win

Never one or placed on the flat, never won over todays trip - not exactly encouraging. But there are some encouraging signs still. Mostly his most recent performance at Fairyhouse when he had an awkward start and had to take up a less than ideal position in the field. He travelled well enough for a long time and seemed to be in with every chance over 2f out, however didn't get any run whatsoever being locked there on the inside rail. He made late progress when in the clear, without being any nearer than sixth in the end. He gets another pound off the mark and is extremely well handicapped now in my mind as he showed some promise last year of much higher in hot and competitive handicaps on Turf, most notably off a mark off 70 in a big Leopardstown handicap. The good ground should certainly help, so should the assistance from Wayne Lordan in the saddle.

BBOTD - Sunday 8th of June

15.40 Curragh: Nonchalant @ 15/2 VC 2pts win

Have seen Nonchalant at Cork on his winning debut. Looked forward in the parade ring before like a strong 3yo colt. This is a massive step up in class today, thrown into Listed class and seasoned older horses. But he receives loads of weight which will clearly help and the form of his maiden win works out well with the 2nd being an nto winner. Ground is fine, trip is unknown but the way he stayed on at Cork gives hope that an additional furlong won't be a problem. He is clearly an interesting contender with potential.