Something I really like to take on board in 2013 is the Ante-Post betting. I did it a bit in the past but not with too much urge. But it is a great option to increase the profit if you find horses which are way overpriced in the early ante-post markets. Still the approach remains to find eye-catching performances, as this is what this site is about, yet you have to take form, potential, pedigree and all that sort of stuff a bit more into account as well as there is some guessing involved as ante-post also means horses can get injured or are aimed to run in different races than you hoped they would. And in that case the stake is lost, without even getting a run for the money. So there are the risks on one side, there is the potential win on the other side as the odds you take can be huge in the ante-post market and therefore the payout can be huge! As for the new flat season I identified a few interesting ante-post bets. Keep watching this site in the next days and if you want to share your thoughts here you are more than welcome to use the the comment function...
English 2.000 Guineas - 4th May of 2013 - Newmarket Racecourse
The first classic of the season and the race looks all about Dawn Approach. He was the outstanding juvenile in 2012 and there isn't a reason why he can't be equally impressive this year. He stays in training with Jim Bolger what ensures he'll get the preparation he needs from people who know him inside out. Dawn Approach is unbeaten in six starts and I have been to the Curragh myself the day when he made his debut an won well a decent maiden. He looked big and strong already that day and the development he took since then is just phenomenal. He won three times on Group level, ending the season on a career high with victory in the Dewhurst Stakes. As he is sired by New Approach it looks fair to assume that he can be even better for a step up in trip to 1 mile. And as he beat everything quite comfortably last year I simply think he could prove too strong for all his rivals in the 2.000 Guineas at the beginning of the new season. Just remember the Dewhurst Stakes for example. He raced lazily for a long time through this race but showed everything when asked for an effort and drew easily clear of good opposition. Mind you the runners-up was a Group winner and the third won subsequently the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita. And you can look through all his races. The form of them works out well. So what he achieved last year is more than rock solid.
I have no doubts that he'll be primed for the 2.000 Guineas in May and I was surprised to see him available as a 7/2 chance with several bookmakers for this race. I expected him to be much shorter and there is no doubt that he'll be much shorter comes raceday anyway. So It's a good punt, definitely a value price for me and I'm on with 5pts.
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| The Aiden O'Brien trained Theatre looks a promising sort |
Even though I believe Dawn Approach is hard to beat in the Guineas, there is a second horse I do really like and feel it could get close in this race. It's the Aiden O'Brien trained colt Theatre. He's a huge price on the exchanges at the moment, and it's not sure if he even will contest in the race but I do feel he could be Ballydoyle's best chance there. First of all he was visually very impressive winning a 7f maiden at Leopardstown at the second time of asking. It worth to watch this race back, you can do this on the At The Races website for free. It wasn't the strongest of maidens, but the way he finished the race was hugely impressive, kicking easily away from 2f out, producing a stunning turn of foot, leaving the rest of the field flat to boards behind. That looked classy and gave the impression that he's a serious talent.
Theatre is also quite interesting from a pedigree point of view. He's beautifully bred, as you would expect for a Ballydoyle horse. Sired by Galileo and out of the multiple Group winning mare Rumplestiltskin who won the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes over 7f and the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac over 1m. So the trip shouldn't be a problem even though he should really relish the further furlong. That fact and the fact that he's very lightly raced makes him a very interesting runner. He's a 54/1 chance on Betfair, and while it might happen that he's not going to run on Guineas day it is worth to find out with 1pt as if he does run this price would look massive.
Dawn Approach @ 7/2 Bet365 - 5 pts win
Theatre @ 54/1 Betfair - 1pt win
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