Friday the 1st of March...

Some things are tough to take and as I was absolutely confident the two selection for today would be very hard to bear it's beyond my understanding how poorly they have actually ran. I don't really mind if my horses are unlucky or get beaten on the line, as they did in recent days one more than one occasion, but days like today are just gruelling. Hitting a really, really poor run and this turns February into a red month...

19.40 Wolverhampton: Lean On Pete @ 11/4 Bet365 - 6pts win

Lovely progressing Oasis Dream gelding who was pretty unlucky in his most recent run here at Wolverhampton. He was still hard on the bridle turning for home but had to wait until 1f out to get a run. He finished well enough but had no chance to peg back the eventual winner who done it nicely from the front. He drops in class tomorrow, back into a class 5 Handicap, and remains on the same mark. That must give him a huge chance. Lean On Pete also won with loads in hand on his penultimate start here at Wolverhampton (despite the small enough looking winning margin) when it looked almost impossible for him to come out on top when the field turned for home but he easily cut back the deficit to win it cheekily on the line. The race after that is a form to ignore in my mind as the race wasn't run to suit and came on a day when it as almost impossible to do well from the rear of the field. Ishikawa is the obvious danger tomorrow, but has to defy a new career highest mark and I think Lean On Pete should have still much more to offer, with Gibbons booked a top man is on board to bring him home.

Thursday the 28th of February...

Avonmore Star - big chance on Thursday at Kempton

18.00 Kempton: Fire In Babylon @ 11/4 Bet365 - 6pts win

Put this one up two weeks ago for a race at Lingfield when he played up at the gates and was a late withdrawal. So same reasons why he's a very interesting runner are still applying, as well as it has to be stated that this race tomorrow is a really, really poor affair and he should be the class act, if you can say so in a race of that nature.

Anyway, it wasn't difficult to be impressed by Fire In Babylon's most recent performance at Kempton when he travelled nicely in rear but had loads to do from well of the pace while turning for home in a rather slowly ran affair. While the eventual winner had the run of the race, travelling prominently and was able to kick away 2f out Fire In Babylon had to work his way through the field from the rear, yet he ran on very strongly under a hands and heels ride to finish 3rd in the end. He surly looks like a horse that is well ahead of the current mark, which is confirmed by the fact that he's able to race off 3lb below his last winning mark. He's also generally lightly raced for a five year and looks primed for a big run tomorrow.



19.00 Kempton: Avonmore Star @ 5/1 Paddy Power - 4pts win

I thought Avonmore Star ran a huge race last time out here at Kempton. He travelled in a prominent position throughout the race while they went a rattling pace. He probably was a bit too soon in front when he took over the lead from 3f out. He tried to kick away and it looked for a moment as if could hold on for the win but he was overtaken in the last strides and finished only fourth eventually. The winner had the perfect race from the rear thanks to the fast pace and with a slightly less aggressive ride tomorrow I have no doubt that Avonmore Star is capable to turn the form with Russian Ice. Avonmore Star looks pretty well handicapped as well judged on past form and the 1lb raise in the mark for the recent effort could prove lenient. As well as that it was only his second start after a four-month long break. I expect him to be primed for this race here tomorrow and he should be hard to beat.

Wednesday the 27th of February...

May's Boy the gentle grey - should go well for a big price

Spin Again piped on the line... that's the way it goes sometimes... hitting really a bad run at the moment, or better to say "luck" is not on our side. Well that's racing, let's looks forward, things will improve again, pretty sure...


19.00 Kempton: May's Boy @ 12/1 Bet365 - 2 pts win

He's done way better in his most recent start here at Kempton than the bare result might suggest. He had a wide draw to overcome and took over the lead from 6f out, crossing over to the inside eventually. His very inexperienced rider went far to strong then, it was a very aggressive ride from the front, yet May's Boy travelled really well and it looked possible as if he'd be able to hang on. But inside the final furlong he weakened badly and was swept by the the field, to finish only 6th in the end. With this fine performance he confirmed his strong penultimate run, when he was beaten just a neck. He's up 2lb now but still 1lb below his last winning mark, when he won with loads in hand last April over course and distance. Racheal Kneller gets the leg up again what's a positive as she won on May's Boy already and is well worth her 5lb claim. She's more balls than many of her fellow male apprentice colleagues I'd say. Overall I think May's Boy is overpriced.

BBOTD - Tuesday the 26th of February...

Spin Again - must win on Tuesday

15.40 Lingfield: Spin Again @ 3/1 Bet365 - 6pts win

Spin Again looked really unlucky just a few days ago here at Lingfield. He travelled nicely, and Hayley Turner looked to have loads of horse beneath her in the home straight but she found it difficult to find a gap for Spin Again to squeeze through and win the race, yet Spin Again finished really well under a strong hands and heels ride when a bit of space finally opened up in the closing stages. 

 

This horse was already very interesting for me some weeks ago, when running eye-catchingly from higher marks, so it's very interesting to see that despite this strong recent effort the handicapper decided to drop him 2lb, down to a mark of 60. Spin Again won of this sort of mark or of an even 6lb higher mark twice last year, so it's fair to assume that he's well handicapped now from a pure form perspective, but the visual impression of his most recent run, when he dropped already down to 62, very much confirms this suspicion. He drops down to the 7f trip tomorrow, which shouldn't be a problem as he's a 4-times course and distance winner (from nine starts). I'd be very surprised if he doesn't win easily tomorrow.

Monday betting - 25th of February...

Amana at Kempton -  best chance on Monday

14.50 Kempton: Amana @ 3/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

This 9yo mare looks well ahead of the handicapper at the moment I feel, thanks to her slipping mark after a couple of poor performances. She probably would have taken advantage of her low rating already last week if the race would have been ran a little bit more to suit. She was travelling super well in rear but it soon became clear that it could be a difficult task from this position as the race was ran at a crawl for a long time. And indeed the over the course of the race mostly in second racing Time Square won the race in the end. Amana in contrast had loads to do turning for home and was also locked on the inside almost until approaching the 2f marker. When she got racing room she made stylishly headway, running on in very impressive fashion under a strong hands and heels ride finishing much the best of all to take 2nd place in the end. Only a horse in good shape that is well handicapped would be able to finish a race in that way under these circumstances. It's a big field again tomorrow and it's easy enough to encounter in-running trouble in these sort of field sizes but there is no doubt that she has a couple of pounds in hand and that hopefully is sees her finishing this race on top in the end.



16.20 Kempton: Prince Of Burma @ 6/1 Ladbrokes - 2pts win

Prince Of Burma was very unlucky on his most recent start at Lingfield one month ago. He travelled much the best but didn't get a run whatsoever in the closing stages. The way he travelled indicates that he's poised to win soon which confirms the look of his actual handicap mark which looks handy enough again. He didn't win for over a year but he's 3lb below his last winning mark now. He also showed some decent enough performances in better races of higher marks, so there is no doubt that he can be competitive in a class 4 handicap like this which looks not overly strong anyway, apart of the Botti horse which might be still ahead of the handicapper. But if you take that one out I'd say Prince Of Burma is the one to beat, so if the hot favourite fails for whatever reason, Prince Of Burma will be right there I hope.



17.30 Wolverhampton: Rockgoat @ 12/1 - 2pts win

Rockgoat is well overpriced in my mind. This Rock Of Gibraltar son looks frustrating but in the same way he's coming down to a very handy mark on the back of a decent performance and is also not overly often raced yet, so there is some hope for him I feel. His most recent 3rd place, however quite a way beaten, is better than the bare form might suggest. It was a strange ran race from a pace angle I thought and the front-running/prominent racing Rockgoat was taken on for the lead 2f after the start by the later on badly fading Fighter Boy. Rockgoat was also a bit keen but travelled still very well approaching the home straight and was there in with every chance but was then baldy hampered by the eventual 2nd. He lost his rhythm but held on for 3rd place, a long way clear of the rest of the field. God knows what have happened with a clear run. Anyway, he gets another pound off the mark for this effort, Graham Lee is booked for the ride, not for nothing I suppose, and after Rockgoat had to carry probably too much weight throughout the whole last year after a decent maiden win, he should be now competitive of his current mark in a race like this.

Ante-Post 2013 - Irish 1.000 Guineas...

Another Ante-Post selection, this time for the Irish 1.000 Guineas. There is no ante-post market available yet for this race, but as I am very keen on a certain filly I asked all the different bookies for a price. Only one got back to me after a couple of days: Bet365. They offered me a price I'm happy enough to take because it could prove to be a huge one comes race day. If you want to follow me on this selection I'd advise you to get in touch with bet365 as well.

Viztoria winning the  Blenheim Stakes at the Curragh 

Usually Irish racing is dominated by Aiden O'Brien but it appears to be that he doesn't has too many exciting 3yo fillies this year, so it fair to assume someone else can win this race in 2013. I'm particularly keen on one filly: The Eddie Lynam's trained Viztoria. She proved to be a top-class juvenile over sprinting distances   last year but should be even better over further. She won a Naas maiden in impressive fashion by 7½ lengths in July but the real eye-opener was her big margin win in a Listed race at the Curragh, in the 6f Blenheim Stakes. She travelled like a dream and kicked easily away from 2f out. Johnny Murtagh never had to asked a serious question while her rivals were all flat to the boards. The final winning margin was  7½ lengths - again! This is a fine piece of form with the 2nd winning a competitive Handicap at Naas subsequently and the 3rd finishing runners-up in a Listed race at Dundalk to Lines of Battle who himself is a bright prospect for the new season. But it was the way Viztoria did it. So easily, and that all on heavy ground. She raced once more last year, stepping up in class, right into Group 2 class, finishing 2nd there, only one lengths beaten by multiple Group winner Penny's Picnic. Again a very good performance but I think she didn't show all yet what she's actually capable of. 

Viztoria should improve massively for a step up in trip though. She is sired by Oratorio. A multiple Group 1 winner over distances varying from 6f to 10f, a winner of the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere over 7f as a 2yo, and a winner of the Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes during his 3yo campaign! Viztoria ist out of Viz, a mare who won a Listed race in France over 12f. Even though pedigree is not all it still gives you an impression of what a horse is built for an Viztoria is not made to be a sprinter, she will improve dramatically for the step up to a mile, and maybe even further though. However considering these facts it's getting even more impressive how well she has done over sprinting trips and one can only agree if trainer Eddie Lynam says "she's blessed with speed". 

Therefore I think she ticks all the right boxes to be a major 1.000 Guineas candidate. From the day on connections said she'll be prepared for the Irish 1.000 Guineas I was very keen to get an early price for this race for her because if she really gets to this race she'll be a way shorter price, maybe even favourite, comes race day. 

Viztoria @ 10/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

BBOTD - Saturday the 23rd of February...

16.50 Lingfield: My Son Max @ 11/2 VC - 3pts win

He was desperately unlucky in his most recent start, here at Lingfield in early December. He travelled well enough and looked in with a big shout turning for home but found himself then short of room 1f out and had to suffer behind a bunch of horses. Finally in the clear in the last hundred yards he finished strongly in third. He probably would have won the race with a clear run. The form doesn't look too strong overall but the handicapper left his mark unchanged and that should ensure that My Son Max will be really competitive in this race here tomorrow as he'd be a few ponds higher if everything would have gone to normal the last time.

That means he's surly well in the weights in this race, that looks sort of competitive but the opposition doesn't look overly exciting. Nonetheless there are small worries: He has to overcome a wide draw and the 5f trip might be sharper than ideal, yet I think he is overpriced and a big performance is expected.

Get well soon Rachel...

Some things in life are more important than betting and money. And as a fan of the sport horse racing as much as loving the betting, it nearly broke my heart when I learned that wonder-filly Rachel Alexandra is in serious conditions after giving birth to a Bernardini filly foal. She underwent surgery at the Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital at Lexington, USA. Successfully as reported as well as that she does make progress in her recovery already. That's good news but it has to be noted that she remains in serious conditions and the road to full recovery is a long one. Usually I'm not really fond of American racing, but Rachel found her way into my heart with her historical campaign in 2009. With her toughness, fighting spirit and her sheer class. So I really wish her all the best and speedy recovery. It was also great to that racing fans worldwide are united in this case, with many well wishes on twitter or an own facebook group.

Now, I found the following little video today. How wonderful it is. Really goosebumps raising, bringing back all the memories. Wonderful pictures and great footage of all her big victories. A lovely tribute to one of the best fillies ever - Rachel Alexandra!

Ante-Post 2013 - 2.000 Guineas...

Something I really like to take on board in 2013 is the Ante-Post betting. I did it a bit in the past but not with too much urge. But it is a great option to increase the profit if you find horses which are way overpriced in the early ante-post markets. Still the approach remains to find eye-catching performances, as this is what this site is about, yet you have to take form, potential, pedigree and all that sort of stuff a bit more into account as well as there is some guessing involved as ante-post also means horses can get injured or are aimed to run in different races than you hoped they would. And in that case the stake is lost, without even getting a run for the money. So there are the risks on one side, there is the potential win on the other side as the odds you take can be huge in the ante-post market and therefore the payout can be huge! As for the new flat season I identified a few interesting ante-post bets. Keep watching this site in the next days and if you want to share your thoughts here you are more than welcome to use the the comment function...

English 2.000 Guineas - 4th May of 2013 - Newmarket Racecourse

The first classic of the season and the race looks all about Dawn Approach. He was the outstanding juvenile in 2012 and there isn't a reason why he can't be equally impressive this year. He stays in training with Jim Bolger what ensures he'll get the preparation he needs from people who know him inside out. Dawn Approach is unbeaten in six starts and I have been to the Curragh myself the day when he made his debut an won well a decent maiden. He looked big and strong already that day and the development he took since then is just phenomenal. He won three times on Group level, ending the season on a career high with victory in the Dewhurst Stakes. As he is sired by New Approach it looks fair to assume that he can be even better for a step up in trip to 1 mile. And as he beat everything quite comfortably last year I simply think he could prove too strong for all his rivals in the 2.000 Guineas at the beginning of the new season. Just remember the Dewhurst Stakes for example. He raced lazily for a long time through this race but showed everything when asked for an effort and drew easily clear of good opposition. Mind you the runners-up was a Group winner and the third won subsequently the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita. And you can look through all his races. The form of them works out well. So what he achieved last year is more than rock solid. 

I have no doubts that he'll be primed for the 2.000 Guineas in May and I was surprised to see him available as a 7/2 chance with several bookmakers for this race. I expected him to be much shorter and there is no doubt that he'll be much shorter comes raceday anyway. So It's a good punt, definitely a value price for me and I'm on with 5pts. 

The Aiden O'Brien trained Theatre looks a promising sort

Even though I believe Dawn Approach is hard to beat in the Guineas, there is a second horse I do really like and feel it could get close in this race. It's the Aiden O'Brien trained colt Theatre. He's a huge price on the exchanges at the moment, and it's not sure if he even will contest in the race but I do feel he could be Ballydoyle's best chance there. First of all he was visually very impressive winning a 7f maiden at Leopardstown at the second time of asking. It worth to watch this race back, you can do this on the At The Races website for free. It wasn't the strongest of maidens, but the way he finished the race was hugely impressive, kicking easily away from 2f out, producing a stunning turn of foot, leaving the rest of the field flat to boards behind. That looked classy and gave the impression that he's a serious talent. 

Theatre is also quite interesting from a pedigree point of view. He's beautifully bred, as you would expect for a Ballydoyle horse. Sired by Galileo and out of the multiple Group winning mare Rumplestiltskin who won the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes over 7f and the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac over 1m. So the trip shouldn't be a problem even though he should really relish the further furlong. That fact and the fact that he's very lightly raced makes him a very interesting runner. He's a 54/1 chance on Betfair, and while it might happen that he's not going to run on Guineas day it is worth to find out with 1pt as if he does run this price would look massive. 

Dawn Approach @ 7/2 Bet365 - 5 pts win

Theatre @ 54/1 Betfair - 1pt win

One-Hundred...

Happy hunting ground - low grade racing on the All-Weather

One-hundred... that's the exact amount of bets having been advised on this site in the last couple of month. In late September I started this new and interesting approach of finding winners, relaunching the site as well and since then it went from strengths to strengths.

It's been 100 bets now which resulted in 23 winners and a fantastic profit of 118.87 points. And that all in less than five month. We staked 334 points gaining a return of 452.87 points. That is a massive Return Of Investment of 35.60%. Week in week out we prove that our strategy is a long-term success. There might be disappointing days, but the next winner is always looming around the corner. And while there are loads of people out saying you can't make money betting on low-grade racing, particularly the All-Weather stuff in the UK, it couldn't be farer from the truth in terms of this site, as the majority of our advised selections and therefore winners are coming from class 5 or 6 Handicaps on the All-Weather. It might be true that with conventional form study it is almost impossible to beat the bookies nowadays but the approach that I use on this site is different. The actual performance of a horse during a race, or to clarify, the visual impression, is so important and gives you so much insight into the form of a horse. It tells you everything. The truth lies on the pitch they say in football, and it's pretty much the same in racing.

On a side-note: Bet number 100 was advised today, and the selection Corn Maiden done the job in a good fashion, winning comfortable in the end. Happy days...

BBOTD: Tuesday the 19th of February...

All eyes on the Southwell fibresand on Tuesday

Another placed effort for our selection but that's not enough obviously and no excuses for Attwaal who had a clear run and every chance. He was early on outpaced so to finished 3rd was okay in the end and a step up in trip might be the answer for him...


 14.50 Southwell: Corn Maiden @ 9/2 Paddy Power - 4pts win

I'm happily ignoring all the runs of this maiden filly until her latest performance which came here at Southwell. It was her first start on fibresand and she really looked to be home on this surface. She travelled nicely in a prominent position, and while she didn't have an answer to the eventual winner she finished a fine 2nd, galloping all the way to the line and coming a long way clear of the rest of the field. That was her first serious performance in her 14 races long career so it is fair to assume that the change of surface might bring more improvement out of her. She should be capable of winning this race tomorrow at least as the bottom weight as it looks a rather poor one. She's clearly not a selection to have too much confidence in but on the evidence of her last run I feel the price is quite a big one if you compare her profile with the market principles for example. 

BBOTD: Monday the 18th of February 2013...

Attwaal's prominent father - Teofilo

17.25 Wolverhampton: Attwaal @ 10/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Lightly raced Teofilo gelding who didn't set the world alight in his career so far but I rated his most recent performance at Lingfield a big one. He travelled very wide throughout the whole race and was not in the best position when the pace kicked on in a very slowly ran affair. The eventual winner had the run of the race from the front in contrast. Attwaal though had to turn widest of all for home and lost loads of ground as result of that and was relegated to last place approaching the home straight. He then stayed on really well on the outside in the closing stages, finishing in 5th place in the end what I'd rate a huge performance considering the circumstances. The drop in trip to 9f shouldn't be really a problem tomorrow though and as this will be only his third handicap start there might be still more to come and a mark of 65 could prove lenient. He also drops in class here, so all in all I feel he's overpriced.

Saturday the 16th of February...

15.30 Lingfield: Push Me @ 9/2 Bet365 - 3pts win

Looks a competitive race but Push Me is a better chance than 9/2 I think and should be probably favourite. Her performance in January here at Lingfield after a break of around 2½ month was a decent one but it was the most recent run that really caught my eye, when she had loads against herself a fortnight ago at Lingfield as well. She travelled well enough in rear, which wasn't the place to be in a slowly ran race though. While the winner had the run of the race she had loads to do turning for home. Once she found her balance in the home straight she really powered home and didn't even stop when her rider dropped the reigns for a moment 1f out. The way she finished this race suggests she's in excellent shape as well as due to win I feel as she's down to her last winning mark too. Talented Robert Tart takes the ride again and if he's aware of the pace and doesn't drop the reigns again his 7lb claim can be worth a lot tomorrow.

Wednesday the 13th of February...

Nice winner with Patriotic on Monday, even though the rule 4 deduction was quite hefty. Anyway, it's another winner, the 25th since starting all new here five month ago and I think it's working out pretty well so far. The profit speak volumes. Now, I hope it can continue like that but I'm confident, there is another big chance waiting tomorrow...

14.00 Lingfield: Close Together @ 5/2 Bet365 - 6pts win

Thought this horse had a horrible run here at Lingfield lto but finished in a manner that suggests there is much more to come and that her opening mark is well below her true merit. Ten days ago in that Lingfield race she made her Handicap debut after being off the track since October after winning a maiden at this track. She travelled well enough until the eventual winner Precision Strike made a big move and kicked on from 3f out. In this crucial stage she was simply locked on the inside, with horses in front of her and no chance to get out there, until approaching the home straight when a gap opened. She looked a bit tricky to keep straight at that stage then, wandering slightly around, eventually responding well to the pressure and finishing strongly inside the final furlong. For now the 10f trip looks fine, I think with time she'll prove even better over a bit further though. But this is a very poor race here tomorrow and she'll take plenty of beating.

Monday the 11th of February...

Fire Of Babylon was a non-runner...

Huge Chanceat Wolverhampton on Monday - Patriotic

16.30 Wolverhampton: Patriotic @ 7/1 Ladbrokes - 3pts win

Good to see the money already coming for this horse as this increases my confidence in this selection. It looks a competitive field here tomorrow but it still is not as strong as the one Patriotic contested most recently in and which made me think that he's to be well handicapped now. He travelled as good as you would expect in rear of the field for a long time but that wasn't the position to be in this rather slowly ran race. When the paced kicked on 3f he faced a pretty tough task from his position and the fact that the first three home where all prominent ridden confirms this suspicion. Even the front-runner had enough in the tank to hang on for 3rd.

Patriotic tried desperately to make some ground but had to turn wider than ideal and lost ground as a result. Yet he really found another gear inside the final furlong flying home and cutting back the deficit to miss out narrowly for the 3rd place. I rate this an excellent performance considering the circumstances and the fact that he's now 2lb below his last AW winning mark makes a big runner tomorrow. Even more so back over the 9f at Wolverhampton, which looks to be his optimum trip as he's 4 from 9 over course and distance. He's a good draw as well tomorrow and I think he's a way too big price.

Saturday the 9th of February...

12.50 Lingfield: Fire In Babylon @ 6/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

It wasn't difficult to be impressed by Fire In Babylon's most recent performance at Kempton when he travelled nicely in rear but had loads to do from well of the pace while turning for home in a rather slowly ran affair. While the eventual winner had the run of the race, travelling prominently and was able to kick away 2f out Fire In Babylon had to work his way through the field from the rear, yet he ran on very strongly under a hands and heels ride to finish 3rd in the end. He surly looks like a horse that is well ahead of the current mark, which is confirmed by the fact that he's able to race off 3lb below his last winning mark. He's also generally lightly raced for a five year and looks primed for a big run tomorrow. The race looks a really poor one, even though 16 runners at Lingfield can be tricky. But that's the only worry I have. If the hand break is really off then I looks hard to see him getting beaten.

Monday the 4th of February..

15.20 Wolverhampton: Yungaburra @ 5/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

This is a really poor race but Yungaburra stands out, no doubt. He's not getting any younger but he really is thriving at the moment, demonstrating his well-being with excellent performances in the last weeks. Just nine days ago he was probably a rather unlucky loser at Lingfield, travelling like a dream still hard on the bridle turning for home, Franny Norton looked to have loads of horse beneath him but simply didn't find a gap to unleash all the power this horse got. Only 1/2f out a gap finally opened, too late of course. This form looks very strong with the runners-up and 3rd place horse having already won subsequently.Yungaburra ran a huge race before that at Wolverhampton as well, finishing in good fashion from the back landing the the runners-up spot on a day when the track conditions made it difficult for horses coming from the rear of the field to quick and gain ground. The winner of that race won another one subsequently btw, franking this form. Yungaburra didn't get up in the mark for either run which is fair enough but obviously lenient as he's just 2lb above his last winning mark (won here at Wolverhampton last September with a bit in hand off 48). I'm very confident about this horse's chance in this race here tomorrow, only slight worry is the wide draw and that these races with that many runners can get a bit messy sometimes here around Wolverhampton. But as long as he gets a clear run he won't get beaten I feel.