Thursday the 27th of December...

13.50 Lingfield: Macy Anne @ 25/1 Bet365 - 1pt win

This 3yo filly switched yards recently and appeared for Jo Hughes at a racetrack for the first time at Wolverhampton two weeks ago. The bar form of this race looks poor but I thought that absolutely everything went against her there. She had a wide draw to overcome, had a poor start then and was forced to race very wide as a result. She travelled three-four wide all the way but was suddenly very prominent turning for home and maybe hitting too soon the front. She then was hampered by shifting horses in the closing stages and eased down eventually. It's noteworthy that this was her first start after a break since August. She gets another 2lb off her mark nowwhich brings her down to very handy looking mark off 54. Macy Anne is still a maiden but she showed some promise earlier as she finished placed in three maidens at the beginning of her career and finished a very decent second at Bath earlier this year. Jim Crowley takes the ride who is ridding at his best at the moment, so I feel Macy Anne could spring a surprise here tomorrow.

Friday the 21st of December...

13.35 Lingfield: My Sweet Lord @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

My Sweet Lord won here at Lingfield impressively two weeks ago. He was travelling in rear of the field for a long way where he was slightly outpaced during the race, and had a good bit to do turning for home in second last position. He then was flying on the inside rail though, staying on as the only on from the rear, to beat the very prominent ridden Small Fury on the line. He surly looks like a horse that has still more to offer as he's lightly raced and the step up to 7f looks rather in his favour than causing any problems. The 4lb raise in the mark could be lenient I feel. The form of this race works out super well as 2nd and 3rd placed have won next time out.



18.50 Wolverhampton: Wordiness @ 7/1 Paddy Power - 2pts win

Wordiness probably would have won with a clear run at Lingfield last week. He raced in rear turning for home but picked up nicely and was then travelling very strongly until the 1f marker when he had no room to go and lost every chance to win as a result. He looks poised to win in my mind though, despite being a 12x maiden, as he ran pretty well in the last couple of weeks and the step up in trip to 12f tomorrow may help to bring out some further improvement.

Thursday the 20th of December...

18.30 Kempton: Brimstone Hill @ 4/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

Brimstone Hill was pretty unlucky in his most recent start here at Kempton. He was in the right position turning for home but found himself suddenly locked on the inside two furlongs out, that cost some momentum as he had to switch and find back the balance while the eventual winner and second kicked away in that moment and gained a big advantage through that. When finally in the clear and balanced Brimstone Hill finished like a train and still finished a very fine 3rd. This form works out very well and I assume that despite another raise of his handicap mark by 1lb he is still very well handicapped at the moment. The probably crucial question regarding his chance in this race tomorrow is only if he stays the trip as he step up to 12f for the first time. His sire is a sprinter, he produced some decent horses over longer distances though and there is some stamina on the dam side. Also the way he finishes his races suggests he has a good chance to stay the trip.



19.00 Kempton: Key Ambition @ 12/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Thought Key Ambition ran a hugely impressive race at Lingfield lto. He had a wide draw to overcome, was outpaced soon after the start and outpaced turning for home, in addition he really had to turn very wide, in fact widest of all, but stayed on very well on the outside eventually in a manner of a horse that may have a bit in hand over a distance further than 6f. So the step up in trip to 7f will clearly be beneficial on evidence of that run and also the pedigree is pointing into that direction with his sire having been a Group winner over that sort of trip. He's down to a very handy mark now, and his last two runs were eye-catching, even though the most recent one really proved that he is poised to win when finally stepping up in trip (one try over 7f at Southwell so far, I ignore that run though, as Southwell form nor comparable with the other AW tracks). Think 12/1 is a massive price here.

Monday the 17th of December...

16.25 Wolverhampton: Gabrial The Boss @ 5/1 Betfair - 3pts win

He's down in a claimer for the first time after running twice in eye-catching fashion. He finished 3rd in a Kempton Handicap in November, when found out for speed in the final 100 yard, he finished a fine 3rd only 1¾ lengths in the end though. This form works out pretty well with three NTO winners. Gabrial The Boss appeared then at Wolverhampton five days later and was travelling best of all turning for home but was very unfortunate to be locked on the inside and lost soon every chance when badly hampered in the closing stages as well. He's now back after a break of four weeks and despite being still a maiden I expect him to be very competitive in this small field with Andrea Atenzia booked for the ride for whom this is the only ride today.

Statistical overview...

As I changed my betting approach completely some four or five month ago I thought it's time to take a deep dive into the stats, to analyze them and to see what went well and what not. As you may know you can find a complete statistic for all Blog bets on the left hand site of this blog or you just can click here for all past results as well of course.

What is clearly to say after all: It's working well, the blog is showing a profit, even though not as much as I hoped and the strike rate could be better obviously. That's things to work on and in order to achieve that it's important to analyze properly what has happened in the recent number of weeks. While I worked myself through all the stats I found out that I didn't have a single winner at double figure odds. Even though there were big priced horses that went close, yet they all failed to win. So this is something to address and may lead to a change in terms of what sort of prices and horses I'll have a bet on in the future. But there is something else that I found out and that's quite interesting as surprising as well. I produced some stats for the different All-Weather tracks as they were the main proposition in the last couple of weeks obviously, so it's interesting to see to how I fared at these different tracks in detail. Surprising is that things worked completely different compared to what I felt if you see the naked figures.  I always felt and said that I don't have too much confident in bets at Lingfield, in stark contrast to Kempton for example. Lingfield is a track I thought I struggle to get a grip on, particularly after they laid out the new surface. And I thought that Kempton is my favoured track, one that can be trusted and that throws up reliable results. Well, feelings and figures couldn't be more different:

So it's pretty obvious that despite thinking I wouldn't do well at Lingfield the reality stands in stark contrast to that. The strike rate is fantastic, what probably is very much down to the fact that I'm much more selective at Lingfield. Could that be hint though, that I haven't been that selective at other tracks? Well, maybe. But while the stats for Wolverhampton are decent enough - yes 'decent' is the right word I suppose - Kempton is quite disastrous actually. Well the sample rate is not big enough to draw really insightful conclusions, but one winner from ten bets, considering how often I showed some confidence in these selections according to the stakes I used, is awful. So this is something to take very much into account in the future, no doubt, if I want to increase strike rate and profit. Anyway, apart of that, it all looks not to bad overall and I hope the positive way continues. 

Friday the 14th of December...

14.20 Lingfield: Titan Triumph @ 13/1 Betfair - 2pts win

Titan Triumph is a tricky customer as he really needs a strong pace to be seen at his best. But he looks very well handicapped being down to a mark 5lb below the last winning mark. He won at Lingfield in March this year a better race off 80, so to be able to race of a mark off 75 in this class 5 Handicap entitles him to go close as he hasn't been allowed to run of such a low All-Weather mark since 2008. He had absolutely no chance here at Lingfield last week in a race though of this sort of mark, but to his defence is has to be said that this race was ran at a slow pace and horses from the rear had no chance whatsoever. It looks a decent enough pace on the card this time though with the likes of L'Hirondelle and Everybody Knows in the line-up. Also this smaller field should suit as the majority of his wins came in races with less than ten runners in the field. So I'd be surprised if he doesn't give a good account tomorrow.

Tuesday the 11th of December...

15.30 Lingfield: Honest Strike @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Honest Strike was massively impressive at Southwell three days ago when he raced well off the pace trailing at the end of the field but made very wide on the outside of the field some impressive headway from 5f out. He stayed on super well in the closing stages and almost won it on the line, coming from last to first but just failed in a photo! Obviously it's hard to compare Southwell form with other tracks but this run definitely confirmed that he is very much back in form and probably down to a pretty handy mark. He has form on All-Weather apart of Southwell as he finished 3rd in maiden at Wolverhampton two years ago, a form that worked out well btw. He won after that a maiden at Southwell and went up allot in the mark, racing of 82 at the highest, had then a break of one year, didn't show anything, had then again a break of 1/4 of a year while appearing this year in May at a racetrack again, he finished well beaten in a couple of runs though until the mentioned Southwell run where he finally slipped down to a mark of 50. He wasn't raised in the mark for his photo-finish 3rd by the handicapper so that means he really should have a big chance here tomorrow in a very poor race.

Sunday the 9th of October...

14.50 Lingfield: Awesome Rock @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

 Still a maiden but his most recent performance at Kempton suggests he's very well in form. He travelled in rear until five furlongs out and started then a big move on the outside to progress into second turning for home. He travelled like a dream and looked the likely winner while the rest was early off the bridle. It was a frenetic pace and Awesome Rock had to pay for his big move eventually when he got beaten in a photo by a closer. Unlucky, but he has another chance tomorrow and his revised mark shouldn't prevent him from running a big race.

Friday the 7th of December...

15.05 Lingfield: Forest Edge @ 2/1 VC - 6pts win
 

Forest Edge ran a huge race here at Lingfield a fortnight ago over a trip which is usually on the sharp side. He was slightly outpaced in the early stages of the race as a result of the fast pace over that 5f trip but was well in with a chance turning for home, was then a clear run denied by Six Wives though who was slightly wandering to the right and to left in the closing stages. When he finally went past SW he finished strongly, staying on well to get the 3rd place in the end. The step back to 6f will be very much in Forest Edge's favour tomorrow obviously and he should be the horse to beat.



15.40 Lingfield: Archina @ 7/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Strong travelling sort even though very much one paced as well. He won very well in October at Wolverhampton, a form that works out well too, was wrong in his next start but ran eye-catchingly after that, in his most recent start, again at Wolverhampton. He travelled best of all turning for home but was soon hampered and taken into a sandwich by two other horses, which must have had an impact on his chance, yet he still finished well in fourth, but was very one paced as usual and wasn't really able to cope with the speed of the first three in the final furlong. He steps up to 12f for the first time tomorrow, which is interesting. His running style suggests he could well improve for that new distance and his pedigree gives him a chance to stay the trip as well. He still didn't have that many races and if he does improve for the step up in trip indeed then he could be hard to beat in this poor field.

Thursday the 6th of December...

12.25 Lingfield: Spin Again @ 7/2 Bet365 - 5 pts win

Here we are yet again! You can find detailed reasoning why this horse is really interesting in my other post from today as Spin Again was today's selection as well as he was racing in the 2.00 at Lingfield, where he finished 8th however. Nothing wrong with this run though as it wasn't run at the a pace to suit him which should be different tomorrow, yet he travelled very well but just didn't have a chance in a sprint finish and didn't get a hard ride either. Still spot on and due to win in my mind.

Wednesday the 5th of December...

Frock was a non-runner yesterday...

14.00 Lingfield: Spin Again @ 9/2 Paddy Power - 4pts win

Spin Again looks very much back in form and well handicapped as well according to his most recent very eye-catching performance here at Lingfield last week. He travelled nicely in rear of the field, faced a tough task in the closing stages though as he didn't get a clear run there but when he was finally in the clear he finished in the manner of a horse that is in serious form. He is very well in the weights at the moment, loves Lingfield, and even though this looks a slightly stronger race than the last one I do expect a bold show today.

Tuesday the 4th of December...

16.40 Wolverhampton: Frock @ 14/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Very eye-catching performance for this 3yo filly at Lingfield last week after a break of more than half a year over an inadequate trip. She was badly outpaced in rear of the field and many lengths behind when the field turned for home, so it was even more impressive to see her staying on very well getting an easy ride by her jockey and finishing well within the field only around five lengths beaten in the end. She should be much sharper tomorrow obviously and may be a bit stronger and mature after that long break so I think it's probably the best to ignore her performances of the time before this reappearance. She'll step up in trip tomorrow again, back over 9f, which will suit much better and as she got another 3lb off her mark I feel she could be easily very well handicapped and could go very well in this really poor class 6 Handicap.

Monday the 3rd of December...

14.20 Kempton: The Wonga Coup 7/2 Bet365 - 5pts win

The Wonga Coup is still an All-Weather maiden but he's holding well his form in the last number of weeks and his most recent performance at Wolverhampton was really an eye-catching one. He travelled nicely in rear there, improved in good fashion his position from 3f out then and really ran on well but was just unlucky to bump into a progressive and very well handicapped 3yo so that he finished a clear second in the end. I think this is a very fine piece of form and the 2lb raise in the mark shouldn't stop him from finally winning a race on the All-Weather as this race here looks easier than the last one.

Saturday the 1st of December...

Some rare selections from outside Europe today but I feel I found two really good value chances at the Turffontein's big meeting today...

14.50 Turffontein: Silent Partner @ 40/1 Bet365 - 0.5pts e/w

Fantastic Grade 1 action from South Africa today as this years Summer Cup looks a cracking renewal. 20 runners, and many within a chance, probably primed for this race like the popular Smanjemanje and "the peoples horse" Pierre Jourdan. Mujaarib is the clear favourite though and this lightly raced 4yo colt is very exciting indeed. Unbeaten in four starts, winning a Grade 2 here at Turffontein four weeks back, but he has to transfer this brilliant form now to a new distance as he's stepping up in trip to 2.000m for the first time. He should be capable of that and off a lowly weight he might be hard to beat but personally I can't see value in his very short price in such a big and competitive field so I stick with another De Kock runner: Silent Partner. This 5yo Silvano son looks massively overpriced and should be absolutely primed for this race, having the advantage to race of a featherweight of just 52 kilos! Mick De Kock said he is expecting a big run and that statement from the master himself should be taken very seriously as Silent Partner has a profile that makes him a big runner indeed here. He didn't have that many runs in the last number of month and was rather kept fresh. This will be his third run after a four month break today and he has some interesting form to share with favourite Mujaarib, as his reappearance after that lay-off came in the Grade 2 Emperors Palace Charity Mile, the race which Mujaarib won in such impressive style when finishing like a train to take it by a short head. Silent Partner finished fifth in this race, but only 3,5 lengths beaten in the end, staying on well after having a troubled run in the final 500m over a distance which is probably too sharp for him actually. He didn't perform that well two weeks later in another Grade 2 but that form is to ignore. This two prep runs should have get him into super shape though and he'll be fit and well and despite being maybe a bit short of class in terms of what is required in a Grade 1, there is a big race in him and of the bottom weight he can go very close I feel.

 14.10 Turffontein: Wild One e/w @ 20/1 Bet365 - 1pt e/w

The Grade 2 Dingaans Mile is another exciting race with a very short priced favourite who is opposable in my mind as he looks exposed compared to some lightly raced horses in the field. Nonetheless he sets a high standard and we will see if any of the opposition is able to reach this standard but at 11/10 I take Hangman on anyway. My selections Wilde One is very lightly raced, had only two start to date, winning well his maiden on debut and finishing a very eye-catching third in a strong Listed race just two weeks ago. He was slowly into stride there, very green through the whole race and also slightly outpaced at some stage. He didn't get a hard ride though by his jockey and was 300m out plum last but stayed on in very impressive fashion from an impossible position to land the third spot, without being hard ridden. He had no chance with the winner who is super horse and therefore this form is worth allot but with natural improvement and more experience Wilde One could turn into a really nice horse as well. He should have a decent chance to be in the frame here today I feel anyway and connections won't make the trip with the horse over from Durban to Turffontein just for the fun of the game.

Thursday the 29th of November...

19.05 Kempton: Hesperides @ 17/2 VC - 3pts win

 Big step up in trip for this filly but she is very interesting for that reason in this field. She's completely unexposed over this sort of trip, doing well over much shorter distances this year and improving well enough through her 3yo campaign. She got off the mark in a Kempton maiden over 12f in August and confirmed this decent performance with two fine placed efforts on turf then. I liked particularly her effort at Lingfield at the end of September, her most recent start. She was outpaced there on more than one occasion in that race but really made an eye-catching move between five and three furlongs out, coming from well off the pace to try and peg back the leader. The leader, also the eventual winner of the race, was not to catch though and she finished 3rd in the end but she clearly ran on well and and was full of running crossing the line. On that evidence it looks as if she is crying out for a step up in distance. Well, from 12f up to 2m is a massive step up indeed but her pedigree gives her a fine chance to stay the trip as her sire has had some fine success with stayers like Opinion Poll or also Cavalryman and her dam won over 13f at Lingfield's All-Weather. So I think that makes Hesperides a very interesting chance in this race here at her very first try over 2 miles. She is open to natural improvement anyway and if she stays the distance she could be quite hard to beat I feel.

Wednesday the 28th of November...

13.40 Wolverhampton: My Own Way Home @ 4/1 Bet365 - 5pts win

She ran a cracker two weeks ago at Lingfield, when she was trailing when turning very wide for home and losing ground as a result of that, yet she finished very strongly on the outside only hands and heels ridden and was beaten only 1½ lengths by Aldermoor in the end who was entitled to win the race. I feel this is a very strong form indeed. She can race off the same mark tomorrow at Wolverhampton which looks a very handy mark and with a useful apprentice on board who claims 7lb I think she has a major chance tomorrow as trainer PD Evans is obviously happy to use E J Walsh as they had two nice winners recently from three rides. My Own Way Home has a nice draw as well and the field looks not the strongest so I have loads of confidence in her chance tomorrow.

Saturday 24th of November...

12.45 Lingfield: Ready @ 4/1 Paddy Power - 4pts win

Ready gave an impressive All-Weather debut last week here at Lingfield winning a decent enough looking Handicap in pretty good style. He travelled nicely in rear but was there not in the best position as the pace was slow and as a result of that he was slightly outpaced when the pace increased considerably 3f out. He lost a bit of ground turning for home but found then another gear and produced a nice turn of foot to win with a bit of authority in the end. I'm pretty sure there is much more to come from him as he should be better over this fast All-Weather surface than over soft ground which he encountered all the season bar his debut - even though he did quite well in most of his races to be fair. I think he is the horse to beat in this race anyway as there are question marks about most of the rest of the field. Pace might be an issue in this small field tomorrow but I thought Ready has loads of speed and therefore he can win this Conditions Stakes.



18.20 Wolverhampton: Greenhead High @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3 pts win

Thought Greenhead High really showed a return to form last week here at Wolverhampton. He had the second widest draw to overcome and was bumped right after the start which surely didn't help the cause. As a result of that he had to race very wide the whole race yet he really stayed on very well on the outside in the closing stages. He didn't have a chance with the winner who won easily but he would have gone much closer and might have taken the 2nd place at least. He has a much better draw tomorrow even though stall one isn't easy either but still better than drawn very wide and he really get a big chance by the handicapper who took another 2lb off his mark which means Greenhead High can race now of 2lb below his last winning mark.

Friday the 23rd of November...

16.10 Wolverhampton: Venetias Dream @ 4/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

Venetias Dream was a massive eye-catcher on her most recent start three weeks ago here at Wolverhampton. That was also her Handicap debut and she travelled well enough in rear of the field but found herself then in some traffic problems in the home straight. She finished strongly when finally in the clear but had no chance with the winner in the end. She would have gone very close with a clear run though and should be poised to win soon judged on this performance. She's only 1lb up for her 3rd place there and I do expect her to take advantage of a lowly mark tomorrow in this Apprentice Handicap. 

17.10 Wolverhampton: Thecornishcockney @ 14/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

This horse must be so frustrating for connections as it is one of the unluckiest horses in training I suppose. He is still a maiden after 22 starts, though he showed some really good performances in the recent number of weeks, particularly his last to runs are quite interesting. At Wolverhampton almost a month ago it looked as if Thecornishcockney finally could get off the mark when he was wearing a weird looking combination of different headgears for the first time. He made an impressive move from the rear of the field on the outside from 4f out to take the lead when the field approved the home straight while certainly travelling like the winner. He only had to pushed out to win his race but then somewhere from nowhere came the eventual winner Kittens passing Thecornishcockney to win with a bit of authority in the end. Kittens was simply too well handicapped this day but Thecornishcockney came still well clear of the rest of the field. He was raised by 3lb for this performance and confirmed this eye-catching run with another one at Lingfield then last week. He was simply in an unfavourable position when the pace increased and the leading pair kicked away in a slowly ran race, yet he finished enormously from an impossible position and wasn't far beaten in the end. Again a very good performance in my ind and I do think this horse is actually better than the bare results suggesting. He steps up in trip tomorrow again and should run a good race. I think he surly will outran his price.

19.40 Wolverhampton: Kingswinford  8/1 Betfair - 3pts win

Still an All-Weather maiden but there is surly not an issue with this surface. He ran more than well in his last two AW starts, I'm happy enough to ignore the Doncaster form in between btw... Kingswinford ran a mighty race earlier this month here at Wolverhampton anyway, travelling beautifully  and probably would have won the race with a bit more assistance from the jockey which was an inexperienced apprentice unfortunately. After that came the poor Doncaster run but most recently then another good performance on the AW, then at Kempton, back over 7f, when Kingswinford stayed on very well on the outside which suggests that he may want a bit further now as he already proved to stay further anyway. He's now 3lb up in the mark but I'm not so concerned about that. With George Baker is a decent jockey booked for the ride which should be a big help for the horse.

Thursday the 22nd of November...

19.40 Kempton: Ghostwing @ 14/1 Bet365

Ghostwing is a frustratingly inconsistent sort but on his day he can be outstanding (in relation to the class and opposition he is running against). In January this year he took advantage of a slipping mark winning in breathtaking fashion at Southwell. He wasn't able to live up to his new mark and the expectations after this success for most of the year then though, failing to produce as good a performance as this Southwell form until he emerged at Brighton in September when he made all and won easily a decent class 5 Handicap only hands and heels ridden. It followed a couple of bad performances then but I thought his most recent run at Lingfield suggested that he might be back in form and could take advantage of a now again very low All-Weather handicap mark. He travelled in rear of the field which is quite unusual for him and was then never a really asked for an effort in the home straight. He finished 8/10 eventually but the overall run looked not that bad to me. He drops another 2lb in the mark and has an apprentice on board who claims 7lb in addition to that. Ghostwing is drawn in box two which should helpful to get a good early position and I actually expect to see him running well tomorrow at least.

Wednesday the 21st of November...

15.00 Lingfield: Aegaeus @ 6/5 Coral - 8pts win

You could argue that this is a bit of a frustration sort but he is still lightly raced and I think he has a bit of talent. I actually hoped to see him in a Handicap again as his most recent performance at Lingfield two weeks ago was one of the most eye-catching ones I've seen for a while. He travelled in rear all the time three-four wide but switched to the inside turning for home which proved fatal as he had to come through the whole field and had loads of traffic in front of him. He travelled super well but had loads to do, yet he finished bravely and strongly and just failed to win it. He looks to have a couple in pounds in hand actually and even though I don't like these maiden races I just can't see him getting beaten in this field.


16.30 Kempton: Sakhee's Pearl @ 4/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

She ran in a couple of better races recently and often gave a good account there. She was particularly eye-catching last time out at Kempton when she travalled very well in rear of the field and made eye-catchingly progress on the inside when turning for home, she was badly hampered in the closing stages though and lost every chance to finish well as a result of that. The race was never ran to suit anyway thanks to a slow pace so it was extra difficult to come from off the pace. She takes a step down in class today though, which should be in her favour and looks well in form and also weighted to win again as she's only 1lb above her last winning mark. Nathan Sweeney claims valuable 5lb again and I'd be surprised if she would go close today.

Wednesday the 14th of November...

17.25 Kempton: Ihtifal @ 5/2 Paddy Power - 6pts win

Ihtifal really showed a massive performance at Kempton two weeks ago. She bounced out of the gate and made it from the widest draw over to the inside rail to take the early lead. She set a brutal pace and had the whole field early enough under pressure. She still was able to kick on 2f out and looked a sure winner entering the final furlong but got a bit tired in the end and was overhauled by two closers eventually to finish only 3rd. There is not doubt that she would have won with a more sensible ride and rightly she went up 3lb in the mark for this effort, yet I think that won't stop her from winning tomorrow. She looks to have still a bit in hand in my mind and the drop back to 5f shouldn't cause any trouble. She has the speed no doubt and has a much better draw this time. She'll be very hard to beat.

Friday the 9th of November...

16.20 Wolverhampton: Chambles @ 8/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Chambles was a massive eye-catcher last time out here at Wolverhampton. She had a wide draw to overcome and missed the break. She's done well to get back in touch with the field and travelled then pretty well until they turned for home. She looked a real threat 2f out but was then badly hampered. She still managed to finish fourth in the end. Chambles is now 4lb above her last winning mark but looks still on the upward. The trip might be a bit on the short site considering her sire won over 11f but she won over this sort of distance already as well as she looks to have plenty of speed and she stays all the way either. A genuine pace looks on the card in this race and from a decent draw I think she will go very close tomorrow. 

Thursday the 8th of November...

16.50 Wolverhampton: My Sweet Lord @ 6/1 Bet365 - 5pts win

Lightly raced sort that was massively impressive last time out here at Wolverhampton. He had to overcome the widest draw that day and almost dashed all chances with a poor start which meant he was early behind and had to use loads of energy to get back in contention with the field. He then travelled well enough in rear until turning for home when making big move on the outside and finishing very strongly. Not strongly enough to beat the lightly raced winner though and he had to pay tribute to the poor start eventually as well but he still came clear of the rest of the field. This was a massive performance in my mind meaning that My Sweet Lord is a good deal better than his actual mark. He steps down in class tomorrow but can still race of the same mark and looks for me very hard to beat in a weak race if he starts better this time. The price is way over the top and absolutely crazy. I think he should be rather a 15/8 chance or so therefore I'm slightly more aggressive with my stakes on this selection.

Wednesday 7th of November...

One winner today. Filfil, the biggest bet of the day won impressively. He was well backed too. The day ended disappointingly though. Barton Bounty finished a decent third and just bumped into a very good horse - fair enough. Icebuster though was almost criminal. James Millman gave the horse a shocking ride. To be fair the horse didn't really settle for a long time over this new trip but still turning for home Millman had so much horse beneath him. He was sitting clearly on the best horse and if he would have chosen the outside route like George Baker did on Peachez - the eventual winner (DH) - he would have won the race most certainly.

18.25 Kempton: Comedy House @ 12/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Comedy House ran a very impressive race at Lingfield lto. The actual performance was way better than the bare result might suggest. He travelled very well in rear of the field but this was the worst place to be in a race ran on a very slow pace. As it appears to be the best place to be is in a prominent position at Lingfield's new AW surface at the moment anyway. So he had everything against him when the field turned for home. He was miles off the pace and had just way too much to do. He wasn't even in the picture of the TV cameras in the closing stages until a few yards out but just finished like a train eventually and has been beaten by just 2½ lengths then. He steps up to 2m tomorrow, which should suit him. He won over this sort of trip in a NHF race on the Lingfield All-Weather track in February this year when braking his maiden tag. This race tomorrow is just so poor I think Comedy House has a stand out chance to win for the first time in Handicap company.

Tuesday 6th of November...

Had to wait a while to find that many good things as I've found for tomorrow. As you may have seen I'm pretty selective at the moment which means I don't have many bets of course. It's just a result of the end of the flat season and the start of the All-Weather season. I'm a bit cautious but also didn't find that many eye-catchers in recent weeks. It's also the case that I'm just waiting for the right chances as I said a couple of days ago, I have to improve my strike rate to increase the profit. That's what I do so it's very unlikely to find three good bets on one day and then even on one card. But it's the case tomorrow and I'm very hopeful for Tuesday. Should be a cracking day!

17.00 Wolverhampton: Filfil @ 5/2 Bet365 - 5pts win

Filfil looked talented when winning on his debut but couldn't quite confirm this promise in subsequent starts. His performance in his most recent start was eye-catching for me though. The race was ran at a slow pace, he took a keen hold early on and wasn't in the best position when the leaders kicked on. He ran on well in the closing stages though and finished 3rd in a hot handicap. Yet he gets 1lb off his mark as a result of this effort and should really be hard to beat in this race here tomorrow in consequence. It's a small field which means there is a question mark about the pace again but there might be the chance that he tries to make all from the front and I think this is a weaker race than the last one anyway.



6.30 Wolverhampton: Icebuster @ 4/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

This is really interesting horse. He caught my eye in his last three starts, which makes him a monster chance for me in this race. I though he should have won lto at Kempton when I would have liked to see a bit more aggressive ride by his jockey. But it wasn't to be that day, though you couldn't be more than impressed with his effort. He looks in tremendous form and the step up in trip trying 14f for the first time should really suit. This race looks a bit weaker than the races he contest recently on and I'm actually pretty confident in his chance, the only slight worry is that he might be a horse that usually travells well, stays on well in the closing stages then but just fails to win the races. We will see, he certainly deserves this chance tomorrow anyway.



19.30 Wolverhampton: Barton Bounty @ 5/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

He is in excellent form as he won here at Wolverhampton three weeks ago. He confirmed his well being with an amazing effort at Kempton just six days ago then which ensured him a place on my list. I always feel 10f at Kempton is a difficult trip for horses coming from behind. So it was no surprise to see Barton Bounty failing to make it two in a row. He travelled well enough in rear and his jockey knew 3f out he would have to gain some ground if he wants to have a chance to win. Barton Bounty made ground then turning for home, but had to do this wide around the whole field and had finish very wide as a result as well. He really finished like a train in the final furlong but it was just too late. It was a fantastic performance though and he is able to race of the same mark again tomorrow. He's never won of a high mark like that but he clearly demonstrated that he is up to it.

Friday 2nd of November 2012...

16.45 Wolverhampton: Who's Shirl @ 6/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Who's Shirl is poised to win a race finally again. She really caught my eye two times in a row on the All-Weather at Wolverhampton npw and it's simply time for her to take advantage of a slipping mark if she finally gets a trouble free run. She finished 3rd in her penultimate race when she was travelling in rear and had to finish off very wide racing eight or nine wide turning for home. She stayed on very well though and wasn't far beaten in the end. It was a different story last time out when she was travelling best of all until 2f out but was then brought into all sort of trouble by her jockey. That's the only worry I have tomorrow actually as Kelly Harrison takes the mount again. Who's Shirl didn't win for two years now and is down to a very handy mark as a result of that racing off 8lb below her last (turf) winning mark. She's yet to win over 7f but I'm not really worried about that fact as she really ran on so well in her penultimate start when she had so much against her, so I feel the distance won't be an issue. It's noteworthy that she also raced once over 9f in her career - here at Wolverhampton, when she finished a very creditable 4th only 2½ beaten.

It's bets free time...

No suitable bet yesterday and no selection for today. I find it hard to be confident about horses chances on the awful ground that appears on UK's racetracks at the moment - thank you rain! And also tonight's racing at Wolverhampton is not very appealing. But that's not a problem. It's not required to have a bet just for the sake of having one. Only discipline is the way to success. Let's wait for the right chances. They will come surly. 

Exciting times lying ahead anyway. Friday and Saturday it's Breeders Cup and the following Tuesday it's time for the race that stops a nation: The Melbourne Cup! Have to say personally I'm not really that excited about the Breeders Cup this year. But the Melbourne Cup is one of these races that I'm looking forward to the whole year. Last years renewal was a real thriller, we all remember the photo finish between Dunaden and Red Cadeaux I suppose. If not, then let's refresh your memories...

Kingsbarns new Derby favourite...

Kingsbarns - winner of the Racingpost Trophy

Things worked to perfection today. Two selections = Two wins! Can't be much better. Kittens ran out an impressive winner at Wolverhampton despite being ridden way off the pace which brought her in a bit of trouble turning for home but she got a clear run on the outside eventually and had just too much in hand. She's won easily in the end. I think she's well able to win again but lets wait what the handicapper has to say about this performance. 

Highlight of the day though was the Racingpost Trophy at Doncaster of course. I felt quite bullish about Kingsbarns chances - and rightly so as we know now after the race. He travelled like a dream, quickened nicely and won well enough in the end, even though he was very green and inexperienced. But no wonder as this was only his secondcareer  start. He will improve massively for this run and looks an exciting prospect indeed. The bookies reacted in dramatic fashion, installing him the 4/1 favourite for the Derby next year, best priced with Ladbrokes at 8/1. I'm certainly not tempted at this price and I'm not quite sure if he's a Derby horse but I'm pretty sure that he is a very, very good horse that has a great future. 

After a losing run of seven consecutive bets this was important today. I was very confident in both horses and I have full confidence in my methods. Since the restart of the blog everything works very well and the first full month resulted in a fine profit of 53.50pts from 38 bets. That is very satisfying to see, though I'm not quite happy with the strike rate. This is something I have to address and to work on.

Saturday 27th of October...

15.05 Doncaster: Kingsbarns @ 85/40 Betfair - 6pts win

I think Kingsbarns is potentially a superstar and a cut above his rivals in this race. The way he won on his debut at Navan was visually stunning. The form is nothing special indeed but the way he kicked away from the field 2f out having been able to produce a nice turn of foot on heavy ground was absolutely superb. He only can improve on that effort and has a huge potential I suppose. 
 


21.15 Wolverhampton: Kittens @ 6/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

Kittens ran a massive race at Pontefract three weeks ago when she was travelling well in rear of the field until she made a big move on the inside between 5f and 3f out to take suddenly the lead. She kicked for home 2f out and looked a big threat but just got a bit tired on dead ground and finished only 3rd eventually. She performs best on a fast surface normally though. I think she showed that she could be easily better than her currant mark suggests and the switch back to the All-Weather should be in her favour actually. She also drops in class here and is the horse to beat in this race in my mind.

Friday 26th of October...

16.25 Doncaster: Miss Blink @ 17/2 VC - 3pts win

She is down to an interesting handicap mark and gave me the impression on her most recent run that she's in good order. She travelled best of all at Ripon in August but saw here stamina stretched over 12 furlongs on softish ground. The drop back to 10f should see her able to finish much better as she's also 1lb below her last winning mark and four wins from nine starts over this distance. The soft ground at Doncaster today shouldn't cause a problem as she has winning form in this sort of conditions either.

Thursaday 25th of October...

14.00 Southwell: El Dececy @ 10/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

El Dececy is back in form considering his fine run at Bath last time out. He was set to make all as usually but went a suicidal pace in my mind, yet he had most of the field off the bridle till 3f out while travelling not badly through the race himself. He was never expected to come home over 10f at this pace and he had to pay tribute in the closing stages to it indeed, fading in the final furlong completely. He still managed to finish fourth and this performance suggests to me that El Dececy is better in form than the bare result might suggest in first glance. He's back at Southwell tomorrow, a track where he's done very well in the past as a 2x course winner and additional two close 2nd places in ten starts. He also drops in distance back to his probably ideal trip of 1m. He's also very well handicapped and has Adam Kirby on board who manoeuvred him to two wins in the past already. So loads looks right in place for El Dececy and from his low draw he should be able to get the early lead which is so vital lead for him.

Ascot & Frankel via Wolverhampton & Bath...

I've been to a three days long trip to the UK with a friend last week - main purpose was horse racing of course. We made it to Wolverhampton on Friday, Ascot on Saturday and Bath on Sunday. Quite a full program I'd say and indeed it was exhausting and expensive - but well worth every penny!

Wolverhampton on Friday was the first stop. A lovely track I really have to say. You don't really get a right impression of the track on TV where it looks usually a rather dreary and far from exciting place. Quite the opposite is the truth though I think. It wasn't overcrowded on this Friday and it surely is a small course but with excellent facilities. Everything is close to you... parade ring, betting facilities, actual racetrack, bar... Btw. they have a lovely bar with wonderful couches to relax and from where you can get a look through an extra large glass window-wall to see the jockeys weighing in while you're nipping on your pint. Brilliant stuff! Racing under floodlights is extra special as well - for me at least and it's been overall a wonderful, friendly and relaxed atmosphere. So I really have to say Wolverhampton was a pleasant surprise. Never thought this track could be that lovely. If I compare it with the other two All-Weather tracks which I've seen so far - Lingfield and Kempton - I'd say Wolverhampton is just a class above them.

It was all about Ascot and Frankel on Saturday of course. Made it from Birmingham on a direct way to the track. Even three hours before the first race the place was already quite crowded. But that was nothing compared to what was still to come indeed. Time was really flying anyway, the first races went on and a real buzz was in the air. The excitement about Frankel was palpable all over the place and everything that happened before the fifth race was just the prologue actually. I made it after the third race already in the the parade ring and never left my place there down at the rails till the big showdown. The ring was packed before the fourth race anyway but nobody left it to watch the actual race, everyone remained there to keep their good position to be able to watch Frankel as close as possible when he finally would walk into the parade ring. Excelebration won really well then and that all was nice, he deserved his lap of honour of course but - without disrespect - no one really cared as the moment of truth drew closer. And then Frankel finally appeared in the parade ring welcomed by a hurricane of applause. He looked calm and relaxed I thought, really well and happy with himself. 

When Frankel left the parade ring the big run started. Not Frankel's run - not yet at least - but the run of the people towards the grand stand. Never experienced something like that before. It was a bit chaotic even more as the grand stand was practically full and it wasn't possible to get in there so I had to choose the outside route and "climbed" a little tree (or something like that) just beside the main stand as many other people did too to see at least something. To be honest it felt like the best place in the whole house. I had an amazing overview over the stand, the people and the track. But then... everything happened so quickly. The race started and suddenly the field already turned for home. When the people saw that Frankel was still on the bridle 2f out the roar from the crowd was just unbelievable. It was the explosion of what accrued the whole day... it was really one of these moments... "I was there". Probably I'll never forget standing there up on this three watching Frankel winning his final race while Ascot erupted. After the race it was again all about running to get a good place in the parade ring to welcome back the invincible. That were unbelievable scenes. I saw many people with tears in their eyes... it all was really touching and Frankel received a wonderful farewell when he finally made two laps of honour later in the parade ring under the frenetic applause by the crowd. He looked in the crowd all the time time during the laps, ears pricked and it was like as if he knew he's the star, he's the best... he certainly enjoyed it. What a horse he is...

Overall it was just an amazing experience at Ascot on Saturday. The atmosphere was incredible, the races were mostly really thrilling and £26 for the ticket was a real bargain as the memories of this day are just invaluable. Have to say I didn't have a single bet that day though. It was all about the sport and the atmosphere for me...

Third and last stop was Bath. The normal grandstand enclosure ticket was expensive with £18 I have to say and I found it a bit weird that there where long queues before the entrance of the track just 10 minutes before the off of the first race. But enough criticized. The track itself is wonderful. A big crowd turned up for the last raceday of the year and the atmosphere was wonderful. People had fun, were enjoying a couple of pints while watching good sport. Have to say the view from the stand is excellent. You can overview the whole track, it's pretty close all, almost intimidate. Weather was fine too so this was an excellent finish of the three days long trip - surly a memorable journey. 

You can find more pictures of this trip at: https://www.facebook.com/HorseracingInternational

Frankel

Wednesday 24th of October...

A very close second for Panama Cat who was narrowly denied which shows I was pretty much right with my prediction for improvement over 1m for for her but it didn't convert into a profit unfortunately. Climaxfortackle ran a decent race without being really dangerous.

19.50 Kempton: Everleigh @ 10/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

 This filly's chance is very much underestimated in this race I feel. She won a maiden on her third start in good style from the front, found a good Newmarket Handicap too hot then but was extremely impressive last time out at Kempton. That certainly wasn't a bad Nursery and the winner looked pattern class but Everleigh was surly the horse to take out of the race. She was 4f out outpaced and as a result relegated to the rear of the field when turning for home but it was difficult not the like the way she stayed on in the closing stages as she finished like a train on the outside. That suggests that the step up to 1m will be absolutely in her favour as also should be the drop in class. She finished that day in front of some good horses and I think a mark of 77 is not quite reflecting her ability with further improvement expected over the new distance on her only third handicap start either. She's lightly raced and I'd be surprised if she wouldn't run a big race tomorrow.



20.20 Kempton: Triba I D @ 15/2 VC - 2pts win

Lightly raced maiden who gave a promising handicap debut lto at Kempton. He had to overcome the widest draw in that race and was pretty unsettled in the early stages pulling hard and using valuable energy. Yet he travelled best of all till 2f out in rear of the field but had to make allot of ground as was last of all at this stage. He finished very well eventually but the challenge came simply to late. I think he's better than the bare form suggests considering the wide draw and the way he was racing in the early stages and I think he could be a good deal better with further improvement expected on his second handicap start. This is a very weak race and he looks well in the weights here and I think he could prove too good for his rivals here.

Wednesday 23rd of October...

14.50 Yarmouth: Panama Cat @ 11/2 Bet365 - 3 pts win

This filly really caught my eye in her most recent run at Catterick. She was soon outpaced over a sharp 6f trip at Catterick, a track that favours prominent ridden horses in my mind. Panama Cat was relegated to the rear of the field and made her jockey to work hard to keep her in in the race. She was way behind the leaders turning for home but stayed on super well in the closing stages to finish only 1½ beaten in fourth place eventually. That goes down as an excellent performance in my book. She demonstrated that she handles soft ground which will be vital tomorrow at Yarmouth and the step up in distance should be in her favour. Of course is still a big ask to race on heavy ground and 2f more but if she stays then she has a big chance to go close here.



15.20 Yarmouth: Climaxfortackle @ 16/1 Paddy Power 1 pt win

There might be not that much speaking for Climaxfortackle's chance here in first glance as she's yet to win a race on turf but I think that the ground is not really an issue for her actually. In fact she was desperately unlucky last time out at Leicester in a big sprint handicap. She travelled well enough but was then hampered in the closing stages and after that when she found her rhythm back a clear run denied too. She couldn't have been unluckier and would have gone much closer with a clear run. It was a messy race and the horse she interfered with there won in her next start ironically. So this form works out well actually. Step up in trip to 7f should be rather in Climaxfortackle favour as she won over further and for the ground issue it looks as if soft ground brings out the best of her on turf. So overall there is something to like about her chance as she's also down to an interesting mark.

Monday 22th of October....

Three days no bets as I've been to a trip to the UK - for horse racing of course. Visited Wolverhampton and Bath racecourse but the main purpose of this trip was of course to watch Frankel's final appearance at a racetrack. All I can say is: It's was an unforgettable day at Ascot! Some pictures and a report will follow later when I find a bit of time...

16.00 Windsorr: Freddy Q @ 22/1 VC - 1.5pts Eeach Way

 He was one week ago already my BBOTD and I keep faith in him despite a poor performance lto as all from last week still applies bar the facts that the horse drops in class what surly should be rather in his favour of course and that he drops in distance back to 10f over what he won this year already and what might suits him better as his stamina is probably stretched too much over 12f on heavy ground.

 Freddy Q looked to be in excellent form here at Goodwood three weeks ago when racing for the first time for new connections. He travelled like a dream through the race and looked the most likely winner 1f out, though he didn't have an answer to the strong finish of the eventual winner in the final 100y or so. Yet this was clearly a very fine effort for what he gets only one pound up in the mark. He won earlier this year of his current mark off 81 at Sandown but he has also excellent course form to offer as he won here last year and ran so well lto. He does handle soft ground very well either and the further step up in trip to 12f should be in his favour. De Sousa is booked for the ride which is bonus in addition to all what makes Freddy Q already an interesting runner in this race here.

Thursday 18th of October...

Nice winner again yesterday. Aubrietia won very well at 11/2 SP thanks to BOG! Kinglami ran a fine race too, finished only 2nd though. That makes him a really frustrating horse unfortunately and it looks as if he really needs to have everything in right place to win of his current mark which means I got it wrong in that regard as he's obviously not well handicapped but rather very much in the grip of the handicapper. But who want's to complain, three winners the last two days, which results in a really nice profit.

17.00 Wolverhampton: Dance The Rain @ 11/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Think Dance The Rain ran much better than the bare form suggests last time out. She dwelt in the stalls and raced wide all the time without any cover. She travelled smoothly though till 2f out while she came then under pressure and ran out of petrol. The winner was not to catch this day anyway and she was eased down in the final furlong. She switches to the All-Weather now for the first time and drops in class as well. She's also running of a career lowest mark and considering that she was very competitive earlier the year in better races of higher marks I'd assume that she should go really well today here.

Wednesday 17th of October...

After a few unlucky days it was just a matter of time till my selections would finally go in. Both selections have won pretty well today, even though Arctic Lynx won in a photo. Great profit for the day anyway and I hope I can continue this little run... 


16.50 Nottingham: Aubrietia @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Aubrietia had a massive year so far winning four races and looks still on the upward. She was desperately unlucky in a very messy race at Leicester last week. She had an excellent position on the inside rail actually and looked going the strongest for a long way but from 2f out she has been heavily hampered. She still made headway after a first slight bump but a second one cost her every chance when she was kind of in a sandwich. She still managed to finish sixth what I'd consider a fantastic performance overall and which suggests that she is still on a winnable mark. She drops in trip back to 5f tomorrow, a trip she's two from two and she's back at Nottingham, a track she won at on her sole start. She's also down in class. That all makes her the horse they all have to beat in my mind despite being 9lb above the last winning mark.

17.10 Lingfield: Kinglami @ 6/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

After breaking his maiden tag at Kempton in August he's gone close in all his last starts while always travelling well but failing narrowly either. I thought the most eye-catching and interesting performance was the most recent one, when he stepped up to 1m for the first time. He really travelled well that day at Kempton but had a long way through the whole field to go in the home straight from the rear of the field and that was a mission impossible to catch the eventual winner who made all from the front. He finished in impressive fashion though, staying on extremely well and it confirmed that he has no problems to stay the trip anyway. He dropped 1lb for this effort surprisingly and really gets a chance by the handicapper I think while staying over over one mile but switching to Lingfield's All-Weather track for the first time which I feel could suit his running style way better. He's still lightly raced and can improve further over this trip and should have a cracking chance of winning here in this race as the bottom weight.

Tuesday 16th of October...

19.20 Wolverhampton: Arctic Lynx @ 11/2 VC - 3pts win

Was my selection eight days ago already and wrote this about him at that time:

"He looked a bit high in the weights this summer but his most recent performance in a ultra competitive sprint at Sandown really caught my eye indeed.He was a bit outpaced in the middle of the race bust still travelled okay till 2f out or so when he had though a wall of horses in front of him and nowhere to go. He switched to the inside eventually and finished the race nicely only hands and heels ridden and surly could have gone closer with a clear run. This was a pretty messy race but the form works out really well with Face The Problem being subsequently placed and also a winner in very hot class 2 sprints and subsequent winners Kyleakin Lass & Ajjaadd. Arctic Lynx drops in class today, back in a class 4 Handicap and he goes up in distance, back over 6f - all his wins came over this distance so this should definitely suit - he's done well on the All-Weather in recent years as well and also drops 2lb in the mark. In addition he has the very talented apprentice Michael J M Murphy in the saddle who takes off another 5lb and which must give Arctic Lynx all in all a massive chance here today."

Same applies today as I thought he was unlucky not to finish closer lto as he was slightly hampered and didn't have the clearest run in the closing stages. He should go well today again as he is able to race off the same mark again.



20.50 Wolverhampton: Hard Road @ 7/2 VC - 3pts win

Still a maiden but the most recent performance was excellent und suggests that he's in fine form and poised to win a race. He was racing there in rear of the field and had to go wide around the home bend to make headway while not in best position though when the leaders kicked away off a slow pace. Suddenly a massive gap between the leading trio and the rest of the field developed and all horses from behind had no chance whatsoever. Hard Road though ran on very well and finished a fine fourth. Despite that he's down another 1lb in the mark and that should only enhance his chance here today.

Sunday 14th of October...

16.55 Goodwood: Freddy Q @ 14/1 Betfair - 2pts win

Freddy Q looked to be in excellent form here at Goodwood three weeks ago when racing for the first time for new connections. He travelled like a dream through the race and looked the most likely winner 1f out, though he didn't have an answer to the strong finish of the eventual winner in the final 100y or so. Yet this was clearly a very fine effort for what he gets only one pound up in the mark. He won earlier this year of his current mark off 81 at Sandown but he has also excellent course form to offer as he won here last year and ran so well lto. He does handle soft ground very well either and the further step up in trip to 12f should be in his favour. De Sousa is booked for the ride which is bonus in addition to all what makes Freddy Q already an interesting runner in this race here.

Saturday 13th of October...

Both horses have been non-runners on Friday, unfortunately. It's not the 'luckiest' week I really have to say anyway. My selections all go close - really close often enough - but they fail to get their noses in front on the line. A bit frustrating, but that's the game. I remain confident though, actually I'm really looking forward to tomorrow, Saturday. Not because of the big races at York or Newmarket but rather because I have two fantastic chances running at Wolverhampton in the evening...

18.15 Wolverhampton: Melodee Princess @ 14/1 Bet365 - 3 pts win

Melodee Princess was desperately unlucky at Wolverhampton two weeks ago. She really travelled very well in rear of the field, made a nice move 3f out on the outside of the field then and looked a real threat until she was simply locked 2f out. She had absolutely no way to go, no chance to switch to the outside and deliver a challenge. I assume she'd have gone very close with a clear run as she looked full of running with much more to give if Luke Morris would have been able to ask for everything. He wasn't able to do so though but Melodee Princess gets another chance tomorrow. She drops in class and is still lightly raced. She has the excellent assistance of DE Egan in the saddle who still claims very valuable 5lb as well. So I think she's very much overpriced.



19.45 Wolverhampton: Red Dragon @ 12/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

He showed nothing in his three maiden runs and the bare form of his handicap debut suggests he's a dog indeed but I thought It was an interesting performance actually. Red Dragon had to overcome the widest draw in that race at Kempton one month ago and was dropped right to the rear of the field but was also racing very wide the whole time of the race surprisingly. He tried to make a move 4f out but found it difficult to gain ground when the leaders kicked away off a slow pace. He didn't get a hard race and it was actually an unusual ride given by William Buick from a visual point of view. Red Dragon ultimately stayed on a bit gaining ground in the final furlong but was never really asked for a serious effort in this race. I don't want to say this was a non-trier but it looked suspicious to me and I suspect the horse to be much better than what he showed that day. His mark dropped by 2lb and I really think he should be very competitive of a lowly mark off 60 here tomorrow.