Monday, May 13, 2013

Tuesday the 14th of May...

20.10 Warwick: Play Street @ 9/2 Bet365 - 4pts win

Play Street was probably the most unluckiest horse I've seen this year so far. She travelled really well and was poised for a big challenge but simply didn't get a run. She was locked on the inside rail from 4f out and had to sit and suffer while travelleing on the bridle strongly. Just inside the final furlong a gap finally opened and she picked up straightaway finishing easily 2nd. She is allowed to race off the same mark again and I expect her to be highly competitive of this mark. She's stepping up in trip to 12f, which isn't impossible despite loads of speed on the dam side. But she finished full of running lto so I think she'll get the trip. If she doe she's not to beat here.

Sunday, May 12, 2013

Monday the 13th of May...

Zurigha finished 4th in the 1.000 Guineas, running with loads of credit but got a bit too late rolling. Super ride from Richard Hughes despite the wide draw though I thought. Gave the horse very chance, but it was a difficult task anyway, so happy enough with the performance. Zurigha remains a smart prospect in my mind. The way she finished the race suggests she could even get 10f maybe. Bold Thady Quill didn't run to his recent form. Probably too much racing in the last weeks, so I hope they give him a little break as I still think he can win another Listed race or even score at G3 level.





15.25 Wolverhampton: Gift Of Music @ 5/2 Bet 365 - 4pts win

Gift Of Music ran in eye-catching fashion in her both career starts now and I think she looks a bit overpriced now as I have her a clearer favourite in this poor race. She won her maiden on debut at Wolverhampton over 6f in very convincing fashion, travelling nicely there and scored in good fashion under a strong hands and heels ride. Despite the narrow winning margin she was always in control of the race. On her seasonal reappearance two weeks ago at Nottingham she was allocated an opening mark of 68 and the way she travelled and finished the race suggests this could be lenient. She didn't win but was surly an unlucky loser as she travelled well enough in rear but didn't find a gap from 3f out while racing on the inside rails. She switched to the left over 1f out eventually and finished easily in 4th while not doing much though, the bird was flown at this stage anyway. With a clear run she would have finished much closer, probably even won. This came over 5f but I feel the step up to 6f, the distance she has won on debut, might suit better. I think over this trip and on the All-Weather she's ahead of the handicapper and the only slight worry is that she's drawn widest of all.

French 1.000 Guineas - Zurigha a big price...

14.40 Longchamp: Zurigha @ 33/1 VC - 1pt win

Poor draw for Zurigha in the French 1.000 Guineas which is usually a rough race but I think this is a huge price for a filly that looked really smart on her seasonal reappearance at Kempton a few weeks ago. She quickened nicely in the closing stages in a slowly run race, posting a fast time for the final 3f, to win easily in the end. She hardly came of the bridle and only had to be pushed out to bring a few lengths between her and the rest of the field in a matter of strides. That form isn't worth too much of course, but it confirmed that Zurigha has the potential to be really smart. She's lightly raced as well, today will be only her fourth start, so there is a good chance for further improvement. No doubt she's good enough to win a Group race, whether it's a Group 1 has to be seen. She's surly a brighter prospect than the price suggests today I feel anyway.

Saturday, May 11, 2013

Sunda the 12th of May...

RH and Piscean didn't have a chance while Sound Of Guns was a non-runner due to changing going...


14.55 Leopardstown: Bold Thady Quill @ 9/1 Paddy Power - 2pts win

This might be the best chance for Bold Thady Quill to win a Group race. He's absolutely thriving at the moment, producing one big performance after another. He started the season with a huge run in the Irish Lincolnshire when he didn't get a clear run and had to delay his challenge but was staying on super strongly to finish 3rd. He confirmed this promise with a win in a Listed race at Cork over actually too short 6f. This wasn't the end yet as he ran then a huge race in the Group 3 Gladness Stakes over 7f at the Curragh, finishing fourth within a lengths of Group winners Nephrite and La Collina. He was slightly outpaced there over 3f out, but stayed on very well in the closing stages. He stepped up to a mile once again at Leopardstown in the Listed Heritage Stakes, where he travelled nicely until the 2f marker, tried to kick away then but couldn't match the sharp turn of foot of hot favourite Declaration Of War. Bold Thady Quill came still a few lengths clear of the rest of the field, finishing a strong 2nd. He's back at this track now for the Amethyst Stakes and there is no reason why he shouldn't run a big race once again. I think his two recent performances should be good enough to win a Group 3 and while there is a hot favourite with the filly Duntle in this race there is the chance that the runners-up of last years Matron Stakes isn't fully wound-up yet which would give Bold Thady Quill every chance as I think he's good enough to beat the rest of the field anyway. 

A big one for Saturday...

15.50 Ascot: Piscean @ 80/1 - 0.5pts e/w

Big price here for the old warrior Piscean who could be overpriced I feel. He ran some very fine races on the All-Weather over the winter, showing he's still very much competitive and not losing the sparkle. On his first turf start this year, one week ago at Goodwood, he probably ran better than the bare result suggest, as I thought he was a bit unlucky there actually. He travelled like a dream until 2f out, appearing to be on the bridle. But he was in a poor position there on the inside rail with a wall of horses in front of him and no chance to get a run through. He didn't get a hard race in the end, and was eased down eventually. So on the evidence of that race it looks as if Piscean is still holding his form, and that makes him interesting today. He gets the 7f trip (2/8 and 50% placed) and he needs fast ground to be seen at his best, so conditions are absolutely fine today. Sure, things have to fall right for him, and he might be a bit high in the mark, but he is in good nick and should run his race, what could give him the chance to be in the frame. 

Friday, May 10, 2013

Saturday the 11th of May...

14.05 Ascot: Robin Hood @ 33/1 Sky Bet - 1pt win

I thought Robin Hood ran a pretty fine race at Newbury in a competitive Handicap lto. He was outpaced from 4f out, and looked likely to finish at the back of the field. But he kept going and ran on really well in the final furlong to finish a decent 5th in the end. He's slipping further down in the mark nonetheless and is down to a very handy mark now I feel. Before he was mainly used a pacemaker for the big Ballydoyle guns he actually was quite a decent horse in his own right, finishing 2nd in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes as a 2yo. He had his problems after that, and appeared on the racetrack 16 month later again, then in a Handicap at Leopardstown, when he made all to win from the front in good style of a mark of 90. This was still last year, and now 7lb lower, he might be very dangerous on a good day. Even more so back over 12f, as I think this is more his trip as he's a Galileo and his dam won over 2m. I'd like to see him ridden more prominently again tomorrow and think he could spring a surprise here then over this sort of trip of his low mark.



15.55 Nottingham: Sound Of Guns @ 3/1 VC - 4pts win

This 3yo filly ran way better in the Nell Gwyn than the bare form suggests. She travelled really well for a long time, but found herself in a bad position from 3f out with a wall of horses in front of her. She couldn't get out there and had to wait for a gap. The gap never came as she got badly hampered 2f out and lost position and every chance to finish the race well as a result. The drop in trip back to sprinting distances shouldn't cause any trouble as I'd be worried about her stamina and the ability to stay the mile, 7f looks the maximum in my mind, so 6f could be her best trip. She has some fine form in the form book from her 2yo campaign when she finished 2nd to Rosdhu Queen in a Listed race and 3rd to Sir Prancealot in a Group 2, both over 5f. Fast ground is expected at Nottingham tomorrow, something that's really in her favour as she needs that type of ground to be seen at her best I feel. This here tomorrow will be only her sixth start and I think she can improve a good deal which would make her hard to beat here.

Thursday, May 9, 2013

Friday the 10th of May...

 Flashlight ran a fine race today at Chester, was with every chance turning for home, but finished only 3rd in the end. He simply wasn't quite good enough on this occasion....



14.15 Chester: Contributer @ 15/8 Bet365 - 5pts win

This lovely bred cold - by a Derby winner and out of a G3 winning mare - looked smart on his seasonal reappearance. He trailed a small field in a slowly run race but came from last to first to win the race with authority eventually. He looks a strong colt with plenty of improvement in him and this tomorrow is surly not the toughest Group 3 in the world. He has some more ambitious targets later the season and with his recent run under the belt he should strip fitter now so that this could be a stepping stone to more glory. I expect him hard to beat here.



20.15 Ascot: Rottingdean @ 12/1 Ladbrokes - 1pt win

Rottingdean had a horror run at Notthingham lto, as he was first slowly into stride, lost a good deal of ground as a result, made this up again though, but was pulling very hard then. He improved gradually his position through the race, was then however simply locked on the inside rail. He just couldn't get out, even at the 2f marker he had to wait and suffer. When a bit of space opened up over 1f out it was all to late but he finished the race as good as possible. This was his first start this year, after winning a maiden last November at Kempton in good style staying on very well that day. I do feel his mark of 76 is pretty lenient and he could turn out to be a much better horse than this. He should be fit and well with the recent run under his belt and the usual strong pace in competitive handicaps like this here tomorrow should really suit as there is loads of stamina on his dam side. He's lightly raced as well, so further improvement can be expected. 

Saturday the 10th of May...

15.15 Chester: Flashlight @ 15/1 betfair - 1pt win

This Mark Johnston colt looks pretty exposed but I thought he ran a race full of credit and way better than the bare result suggested last time at Newmarket in a competitive Handicap. He travelled in rear that day, what was a change in tactics compared to most of his races, and not the best position in a slowly run race. From 4f out he looked to be under pressure, very much so when the pace increased. He lost ground and found it difficult to get back on terms but he battled really hard showing a lovely attitude and finished in good style in the closing stages eventually. He didn't run too bad in all his races before this year I feel as at Sandown he made all, travelled strongly and had the field on the stretch from 3f out, he fought on gamely but didn't have more to offer when headed over 1/2f out. This came over 1m as well the most recent performance, a distance that should suit on pedigree. More than sharp 6f at Pontefract, where he ran in early April, when he missed the break, was under pressure early on as a result and didn't have the speed to cope with the eventual winner but staying on well in 2nd place. Before that he won easily and in style a decent handicap at Southwell. Overall I think he's pretty much overlooked here, because he's certainly not a sexy horse, but it looks an open race and I would assume he'll go from the front again tomorrow, which should be about the right thing at Chester, and with ground to suit and distance fine and also some good performance in recent weeks in the form book I think he can run a big race. 

Monday, May 6, 2013

Another one for Monday the 6th...

17.20 Curragh: Imaginationrunwild @ 7/1 VC - 2pts win

Waited last night to get an early price but unfortunately it wasn't to be an now I'm finally up and have to see the price is already slipping with loads of money coming for this filly. Still got 7/1 but won't last much longer I think and that is for a reason. Imaginationrunwild ran a very good race at Gowran Park lto when she travelled like a dream for a long time and was poised for a big challenge. The terrible ground conditions took its toll though and she faded in the closing stages, yet finished a decent 4th. This form works out well with the runners-up winning nto and Imaginationrunwild remains on the same mark, which is a career lowest mark and one of which she should be very much capable of winning from. Particularly on the good ground which is expected at the Curragh today, with no rain in the last four or five days here as she won her only race, a maiden, on fast ground last year. She wasn't disgraced in some good races of much higher marks after that but found life a bit too difficult, very much so on the inevitable soft ground in a rainy summer last year. Of a mark off 73 she really should be able to be very much in the mix in this not overly strong handicap, having the benefit of a recent run and finally getting her ground.

Sunday, May 5, 2013

Monday the 6th of May...

16.40 Warwick: Isis Blue @ 12/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Waited for the right race for this horse quite a while now and I think Mr. Millman found and excellent opportunity for this gelding to get finally off the mark. Isis Blue came first to my attention last year, when he ran eye-catchingly on two occasions in maidens and I was really interested to see him run in handicaps. He started the season with a very strong performance in a handicap at Kempton then, where he finished 2nd in a race that didn't really favoured him in terms of pace, position throughout the race and even more so when he found it difficult to get get a gap in the closing stages due to shifting rivals. He didn't confirm this promise in his next two starts, I wouldn't read too much into these forms though as Southwell simply didn't suit him and his most recent performance came in a very competitive handicap where he was forced to race wide and without cover for a long time. He drops in class tomorrow now and also steps up to 1m which should undeniably suit according to his pedigree, as well as the expected fast ground. The handicapper dropped him 2lb and I really expect a strong performance, I think it doesn't take too much to win this race here and for that reason he looks overpriced in my mind. 

Huge ante-post success - Dawn Approach irresistible!

WOW! Dawn Approach - what a machine! The Jim Bolger trained colt won the 2.000 Guineas at Newmarket in really impressive fashion today. He found another gear in the final furlong while his rivals were running out of petrol in a very fast run race. The highly regarded Toronado - Richard Hughes was bullish enough in his Racingpost column this morning stating Toronado is "most likely the best" he's ever ridden - finished only fourth. Toronado was hugely impressive in winning the Craven Stakes. But Dawn Approach is simply different class. 

Dawn Approach's Guineas success is sweet like candy for me because I recommended a big ante-post bet on him just two and a half month ago in this blog: Ante-Post 2013 - 2.000 Guineas...


Sunday the 6th of May...

Warlu Way was a non-runner last week...


15.50 Newmarket: Moth @ 10/1 Betfair - 1pt win

 Backed the Ballydoyle filly already ante-post some weeks ago and still like her very much. Moth was hugely impressive at the Curragh on her seasonal reappearance when getting off the mark at the third time of asking. She really showed a cracking turn of foot coming off the pace in a slowly run race that day, while travelling like a dream on the bridle until almost 1f out. This race doesn't look too bad with the horse finishing in fourth winning a maiden subsequently by 7 lengths. There is obviously loads of stamina in Moth's pedigree as a Galileo daughter but her dam is by Seattle Slew whose offspring was most successful over distances up to 1m and who is himself a Grade 1 winner over this trip (even though won over much further as well of course). So there is a chance from a pedigree point of view that 1m is very much within her range - even though further distances as well. So the step up to 1m is definitely in her favour anyway as well as the good ground at Newmarket tomorrow.


17.00 Newmarket: Magic of Reality @ 7/2 Bet365 - 3pts win

Quite a step up in class for this filly as she raced only once in a maiden around two weeks ago at Newbury. She was pretty green that day, made life difficult for Tom Queally in the saddle and lost position in a vital part of the race. It was massively encouraging to see though how she picked up again from 2f out until she found herself very much short or room over half a furlong out however. She should have learned plenty from this experience and it looks as if she has loads of ability. She is nicely bred anyway and thought to be an Oaks contender. She has some other Group 1 entries as well and if she's really up to that class then she should be well able to beat the opposition in this listed race.