Preview: Lingfield - 3.45 Handicap

Boom The Groom: Improving over the winter on AW. Nice winner over CD on penultimate start. 3lb higher now. Tough task in hot conditions stakes lto. May still do better.

Go Far: Last seen in November. Not travelling at all but eye-catching finish over 6f at Wolverhampton. Much improved last season, career highest required, 5lb above last wining mark.

Nocturn: Off for a good year. Disappointing in all last starts. 1lb above last (turf) winning mark. Hard to know what to expect.

Baddilini: Photo finish runner-up over CD lto, 2lb up in the mark, career best required. Consistent on AW in these races without winning many.

Ballista: Hasn’t shown too much for long time and slipping down the weights. On interesting mark if somewhere back to his best. Front-runner, faded late lto.

Extrasolar: Back after break, never won on AW and never done anything as a fresh horse in the past. Career best required to win.

Money Team: Two fair recent performances, but never won on AW and never over 6f in nine starts. Further down in mark though.

Verdict: Looks a tight race, without one that has too many too obvious win candidates. Obvious favourite is Boom The Groom after some excellent performances. I'm sure he'll run well and has a fair chance to defy his new mark in this field. But he got beaten a couple of times before when having excellent chances as well, so I can't see him a much better than 9/4 chance, therefore no value in the price. Baddilini is very consistent and should run his usual good race. He isn't quite handicapped to win though, and while he has a fair opportunity to achieve a career best here, he is one who finds it hard to get his head in front. He is short enough. 

The other horses and prices make little to no appeal. Money Tam ran okay the last two but the trip looks beyond him and he may need bit more lenience from the handicapper either. No idea what to expect from Nocturn and Extrasolar. Back to their best, and they may be able to feature. I like to think Go Far can improve still a bit. Expect him to run well today but his Lingfield record is off-putting. The one that appears most interesting and overpriced in this field is likely front-runner Ballista. On pure form she hasn't shown much for a very long time, though those last two starts were clearly promising when he was up with a good pace, travelling well, and just fading late without getting too hard off a race. Off another two pounds today, he looks pretty well handicapped on old form. On those two last runs, he looks to be capable of running to such a rating and I feel this here is an excellent chance for him to feature big. if that is enough to win, we'll see, but he looks a smart investment at current odds. 

Ballista @ 7/1 Coral - 5pts win