PREVIEW: J & B Met (Grade 1)

This is the big one - South Africa's premier race over 2.000m, and only overshadowed in its importance by the Durban July. And what a renewal it promises it to be. Now, unfortunately, it lost a bit of its excitement due to the scratching of horse of the year Legislate. The champ suffered from a viral infect which caused him to run below par in the Queen's Plate earlier this month and wouldn't have been ready in time for the Met. While that is unfortunate, the 2015 J&B Met still remains an intriguing contest. We have South Africa's two second-highest rated horses in the field, the brilliant Futura, and last years triple crown winner Louis The King. Those two are expected to fight it out, and since they finished first and second in South Africa's premier mile race last month, it'll be very interesting to see how it pans out today, now over the additional two furlongs. 

Futura was last season the up and coming superstar, hyped throughout the year and particularly before the Durban July, without having ever won at the highest level. However a brilliant third in the July, and a subsequent well deserved Grade 1 triumph, proved that he is no flash in the pan. In fact he has trained on and is back now even stronger it seems. Earlier this month he was able to land the prestigious Queen's Plate, despite a troubled preparation, and over a seemingly trip short of his optimum. Coming from off the pace in a slowly run race, he got a no-nonsense ride to prevail. Considering that he is thought to be better over further, and that the Plate was only a prep, one would hope that he is able to progress again towards the Met, with the additional 400 meters a positive. He's drawn in the middle, right beside his potentially closest pursuer - Louis The King. 

Louis The King. The 2014 Triple Crown winner (Gauteng Guineas, the SA Classic and the SA Derby over trips from 7f-12f) had the Met as his main target in sight since coming back from a seasonal break. Potentially he had the perfect prep in the Queen's Plate, when he finished a close runner-up behind Futura. That day he travelled really well, but in contrast to winner Futura, didn't get a clear passage and had to sit and suffer until late. Once In the clear he finished like a train without being really touched. Connections couldn't have been happier. He didn't get a hard race but clearly showed excellent form over a trip definitely too short of his optimum. He'll be enjoying the 10f trip today and looks the one to beat to my eyes. Class, heart & stamina - he's got it all.

On pure form, it looks hard to look beyond these two. They are top of their generation and with Legislate out, either of those two has the huge chance to win this prestigious race. However there are a couple of pretenders who are worth mentioning at least. Geoff Woodruff's Telina has been the focus of some good ante-post money and trades currently as third favourite - which looks probably a bit surprising, given that he hasn't won in over a year, and never in Grade 1 company. However there is no doubt that on his day, this gelding can be very competitive and a recent fifth in the Queen's Plate was promising. He wasn't quite speedy enough over the mile that day, however wasn't beaten by far and looked to me always like one who actually would enjoy the 2.000m trip. With a good draw today, he should run well.

Justin Snaith won't be saddling his stable star Legislate today, however has five other runners in the line-up and most of them have good credentials. With Arion he's got last years Derby third here today. This four year old colt seems to hit form since he won a prep race a fortnight ago. He's a bit to find on the ratings and this is much tougher today, but he has a good draw which helps his positive tactics. Stable mate Dynamic is also one who likes to be up with the pace, and who enjoys a fine draw today as well. Already a five year old, he's still pretty lightly raced with only eight career starts under his belt. That is because he lost almost two seasons due to injuries. He finished an excellent runner-up in the Derby back in 2013 behind smart Capetown Noir, but then leg injuries hit him badly and he was thought to be unable to race ever again. He got plenty of time out in the field and healed eventually. A little miracle. In September last year he was back and has taken really off since then. Two rather easy tasks with perfect execution followed by a Grade 2 success in December. He has had his time off since then but that is because he is best fresh and Snaith wanted to ensure he is the fresh horse today, giving him the best possible chance to run to his best. No doubt, this Dynamic is the dark horse in the race. Least exposed, with only one start over 2.000m, which was his fine Derby second. He's bred for this trip and is for obvious reasons one who could easily spoil the party. 

Silvano son Power King is another one who is unexposed over 2.000m. He had only one start so far, raced most of the time over shorter, but has been able to stay 2.400m on the sand when runner-up in the Winter Derby. He hasn't quite shown this class on turf yet, but has potential to progress. Veteran Gold Onyx is a consistent runner over various trips. However he's best known for strong staying performances, like when he was a close third in last years Gold Cup. He would hope for plenty of pace to bring his stamina into play. Killua Castle has had even more career starts - 32 - but seems to get better with age. He has always shown his best over slightly shorter, but finished a very good runner-up in the Sommer Cup last November behind Louis The King. A repeat of that sort of performance would see him go close, given that he can see out the trip on his first start here at Kenilworth. 

Last years Met third Puntas Arenas hasn't shown much lately and on pure form looks very much up against it. His recent prep was okay however, and he goes well at this track. This renewal looks stronger than last season, however, and he may need an awful lot of luck to be in the money once again. That all says he is a huge price and might be worth an each-way nibble if one is into it. Jet Explorer ran on strongly in the Queen's Plate, as he did last year already. He subsequently failed to fire in the Met and the same fate looms today as the trip seems simply beyond him. The other three big prices are hard to fancy. Though it is not unusual that one of those longshots finds somehow its way into the money. On form, Helderberg Blue could be the one.

Verdict: On paper it looks impossible to ignore the credentials of the two favourits. They are the one to beat, and it is hard to distinguish those two. Futura won well in the Queen's Plate, but my feeling is that he may have peaked too early, and that Louis The King will benefit most from the longer trip today. For that reason if I'd have to make decision between the two, I'd go with the tripe crown champ. That says, neither is a price to get involved with. Fair prices? Yes. But not generous, and no value. As mentioned above, the dark horse is without the shadow of a doubt Dynamic. The least exposed runner, improving nicely after his return, bred for the trip, loves it around this track, which good draw - he is a very big price. Too big to ignore.

Dynamic @ 14/1 Sportingbet - 5pts win

PREVIEW: Cape Derby (Grade 1)

One of the biggest race days of the South African racing calendar kicks off with the Cape Derby, which historically throws up some legendary winners. Last year it was Legislate, who moved on to win the Daily News and of course the Durban July, which in turn brought him the honour of becoming the 2014 horse of the year. Potentially we have a similar star on our hands in this years renewal, the question is only who is it? Checking the betting, this looks a one-horse race. But is it? 

Well, Act Of War, currently trading a 1/5 favourite to land the Derby, looks certainly the real deal as he's going for seven in a row today! The son of legendary sire Dynasty was only beaten on his racecourse debut, and then only by the narrowest of margins. Since then he never looked back, nicked in a couple of Graded races, with his biggest triumph to date, a decisive victory in the Cape Guineas. All those forms have also worked out very strongly, with plenty of subsequent winners. He looks right now a world class miler. Can he take this form to the next level over an additional two furlongs? That is the main question. Being a son of Dynasty surly helps, so he has enough stamina on his sire side for obvious reasons. Small doubts coming from his dam side though, with that line effectively never having anything produced over further than a mile. So far Act Of War looked special over trips ranging from 1.200m to 1.600m. He'll be hard to beat if he's taking well to the longer distance, that is for sure.

Realistically, there is only one real danger for Act Of War in this field , and that one is coming of course from Mike De Cock. His lightly raced Ertijaal is equally as exciting a colt as it gets. He had only three starts to date after having an injury troubled 2yo old career, and has been rather rushed to get here. He had three starts in the last two month, and one has to see how the takes this amount of racing. However he has been rapidly improving all the same. 

He was far too good on debut and second start, winning by a culminating 16 lengths those two races. Stepping into Listed company earlier this month, he turned on things in the final furlong to get up on the line. He was always going to win once in full flight and finished this task nicely. He looked green an immature all the same though, and will have learned plenty. He's a nice, scopy colt who has already proven his stamina over 2.000m and going back to this trip today, will be a bonus, since he is bred for middle-distance. 

Verdict: It is not worth to look anywhere else, trying to find the winner of this race. The rest of the field should simply not be good enough and it would be a major surprise to see any of those go even close. It seems rather a lottery to determine who else could make the frame. So concentrating on the two fancied runners makes sense. That says I'm going to have a nibble on Ertijaal. Simply for the reason that he has plenty of improvement left in him on what is only his fourth start. With a steep learning curve, and a trip to suit perfectly, he should be a close match for hot favourite Act Of War, as long as he takes the recent starts well. That says, Act Of War looks a special horse and if he stays the trip, will not be beaten. But odder things have happened in racing than a proven star miler fading over the additional two furlongs. 

Ertijaal @ 7/2 Ladbrokes - 5pts win

Quick Tip - Friday 30th January 2015

16.45 Wolverhampton: Sixties Queen @ 12/1 Coral - 5pts win

Sixties Queen went close lto here at Wolverhampton over when right up with the pace and leading the field into the home straight. She got just tired late and dropped away. First time blinkers where fitted and she was pretty keen in the early parts of the race which probably cost her a better finish. She can race off an almost identical mark, however has a 5lb claimer on board in this apprentice race which will bring her already featherweight further down. This last performance indicated that Sixties Queen has found back to form and since she is six pounds below her last winning mark (9f, Wolv) she should be poised to win soon. She is well drawn today, CP's are off again and I feel the apprentice claim can make the difference today for her.

Quick Tip: Thursday 29th January

18.40 Wolverhampton: Kakapuka @ 13/2 Coral - 5pts win

Kakapuka is on a very handy mark, now dropping another 3lb after an unlucky run at Lingfield lto when he was travelling well but was hampered badly in the home straight - I suspect he wouldn't have won but would have finished a good deal closer than he eventually did. 

Now 7lb below the last winning mark, he looks poised for finding back to the winning ways pretty soon. He has been disappointing since the summer in three runs, however this latest Lingfield performance seems a return to form and off a career lowest mark, I think he has a fine chance to go very close today as he showed earlier in 2014 that he is still able to marks in the high sixties.

Quick Tip: Wednesday 28th January 2015

2.10 Chelmsford: Tatting @ 25/1 Ladbrokes

Tatting has been in poor form since summer, however as a result is dropping down to a very handy mark, 5lb below his last winning mark. He drops in class today as well as in trip and that should help to see him being competitive again. Trainer Chris Dwyer has been in good form recently, saddling two winners of his last four runners in the last two weeks. If Tatting could somehow find back to something close to his best, he must be very competitive in this race.

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If you haven't seen it already, watch the performance of Able Friend to win the Group 1 Stewards Cup at Hong Kong last Saturday. It's pure horse racing beauty! He's likely to contest on Dubai World Cup night as his next target.

Quick Tip - Tuesday 27th January 2015

16.10 Southwell: Class 6 Handica, 7f - This is a very weak race and that pulls it wide open for anyone to win. Hard to trust the horses at the head of the market and for that reason I give the seasoned veteran Cyflymder a chance to run a big race. He hasn't won in five starts here at Southwell, however he performed well here in the past when placed, so the surface isn't an issue. 

He comes down to a more realistic mark again now, after he went up in the summer for success at Lingfield. He is 1lb above this last winning mark but has been a fine runner-up only half a lengths beaten off 2lb higher subsequently in August. So off 51 he is clearly in with a shout and his record over 7f gives him a very fair chance today to be a big runner in this field. I would expect him to share the lead for most parts of the race probably, but given the fact that he stays further, it may work to his advantage and he may be able to pull out a bit more from the front when it matters. 

Selection: Cyflymder @ 20/1 VC

Quick Tip - Monday 26th January 2015

15.40 Wolverhampton: Class 5 Handicap, 7 furlongs - Lightly raced Mops Angel is prominent in the betting and for good reasons. A winner of her last race, she has been more than fair assessed by the handicappers and could do well win again. Stepping up in trip may not be a problem and she'll be hard to beat. Main danger could be veteran Smalljohn, though. He didn't look exactly like going back to the winning ways in recent starts, though he wasn't far beaten the last two and seems to regain some form at least. Dropping another 2lb in the mark, he is now as low as he hasn't been for five years, and since then he has always won off higher marks. Obviously he is not getting any younger and probably his true merit lies around a mark off 60-66 these days. But rated 63 at the moment, with a decent apprentice in the saddle and the drawn in box 1, he should have ideal conditions to adopt his front-running tactics. There aren't any excuses today and I expect him to outrun his price tag.

 Smalljohn @ 10/1 VC

Quick Tip: Wednesday, 21st January 2015

6.30 Kempton: Harry Hurricane @ 5/2 PP

Looks quite a good Handicap with some useful sorts. That says Blue Aegean is a very short favourite, despite winning really well at Chelmsford last weekend. Stepping up to 6f shouldn't pose a problem for him and turned out under penalty today means he can race off lower than he has to once the handicapper has assessed his mark, but of top weight in this field, it is not a given that he romps home. Recent CD maiden winner Volunteer Point looks a very useful filly and her opening mark is more than fair. She ought to go very close. But I feel Harry Hurricane is clearly the one to beat. He got finally off the mark in a Wolverhampton maiden over 7f earlier this month, which looks useful form with the runner-up winning a maiden subsequently. The drop in trip today is fine I think and his maiden form as a juvenile when he finished runner-up in a Kempton 5f maiden as well as 3rd in a Newmarket maiden is very strong, given what the horses in front of him did. His current looks open to explore further.

Quick Tip: Kempton, Sunday 18th January 2015

15.05 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap, 6f - This looks pretty open and a couple of the bigger prices seem overpriced, but mostly I'm interested in My Meteor. Currently a 66/1 shot, he caught my eye with some interesting performances lately and with a slipping mark as well as a 3lb claimer in the saddle, he may outrun this big price today. The trip is a question mark. He won over 6f and often he gives the impression that the minimum trip is too sharp for him these days, but in fact the majority of his wins came over 5f. His recent performance at Southwell over 6f would indicate that the additional furlong is too much for him, as he travelled right to the final furlong marker like one with a big chance, just to fade badly. On the other side, in recent starts over 5f, he was badly outpaced. In November, he produced over that trip argubly his best recent performance, when he travelled eye-catchingly into to the home straight and finished extremely well in 3rd from well off the pace, indicating that an additional furlong would suit. That says if he can reproduce this sort of form over 6f at Kempton today, he can be in the money. 

My Meteor E/W @ 66/1 VC

Preview: Ladbrokes Handicap, Lingfield

2.35 Lingfield: Class 2 Handicap, 1m

Miracle Of Medinah: Group 3 winning juvenile, disappointing last year, though was placed in Listed event once. Won on AW as 2yo, now step up to mile needs to bring out improvement. Not unlikely to get trip but looks on high enough mark.

Tigers Tale: Progressive on the All-Weather. Won couple of times last season and ended year with fine runner-up over CD. Fair & square beaten that day though and career highest required.

Steelriver: Fine second lto at Kempton over 7f. Career highest required. Has never won over 1m in nine attempts. Though once second over 10f.

Melvin The Grate: Improving sort, won well with plenty in hand lto over CD. Up 7lb in the mark, career highest required.

Beach Bar: Still lightly raced, progressive gelding. Unlucky over CD lto when beaten on the line while attempting to make all. Allowed to race off same mark.

Claim The Roses: Lightly raced and progressive on AW. Winner of two races, yet to win beyond 6f but strong staying 2^nd over 7f. Decent return to track at Southwell lto. New trip may bring out improvement.

Lunar Deity: Progressive on AW. Won last two and neck beaten lto. 1lb out off handicap & steep step up in grade. But may have still more to offer on this surface. Likely up with pace. 

Verdict: Tricky race, despite a clear favourite at the head of the market. Melvin The Grate is rightly very popular with punters given his progressive form and strong recent course and distance win. Seven pounts up for that looks fair and it wouldn't surprise to see him go close again. But he is a short enough price in a race that is by no means only about one horse. Beach Bar currently 5/1 is a very interesting alternative. Still lightly raced, he is the winner of a maiden and a narrowly beaten runner-up on the All-Weather in two starts, both over course and distance here at Lingfield. When last seen he had his own way up on front and pulled out more when heavily under pressure in the home straight. Though an exciting handicap debutant got the better of him in the final strides. Beach Bar gets a chance from the handicapper to race off the same mark again and while this represents a step up in class today, he may still be able to improve again and must rate a big danger to the favourite with his profile and weight. Lunar Deity is one pound out off the weights but has a fair chance to run big as the bottom weight after a narrow defeat at Chelmsford last weekend. He is probably right up with the pace and if he can transfer his fine All-Weather profile into this better grade, he'll be thereabouts. The three top rated horses (bar the favourite) look all likely to be found out on their current handicap mark, however good runs for Miracle Of Medinah and Tigers Tale wouldn't surprise. 

Still completely unexposed over this trip is the lightly raced Claim The Roses. He hasn't excelled on turf at all, but has been progressive on the All-Weather. A fine winner at Kempton over 6f and an eye-catching runner-up over 7f subsequently in autumn 2013 proved that he is talented. However he clearly had problems afterwards, with only one run since then last summer with another break until back at Southwell towards the end of December last month. Then dropped back to 6f he ran well enough considering the little racing he had for a while as well as for his fibresand debut and that may set him up well for today. Stepping up to 1m, a trip he has never tried before, however something that looks not unlikely to suit on pedigree. Worth a try at a big price for me.

Beach Bar @ 5/1 William Hill - 5pts win

Claim The Roses @20/1 Ladbrokes - 5pts win

Friday Blog - 16th January 2015

4.45 Wolverhampton: Class 6 Handicap, 12f - Wide open race, many exposed runners, so it is obvious why Steve Rogers is heading the market. A son of the late Montjeu, stepping up considerably on handicap debut - he must have a really good chance to go close in this field. A mark of 62 is however not particularly lenient, for what he has shown to date and I feel the expected improvement is already very much reflected in the price. Arashi has a chance to follow-up on a recent strong performance, with the weight in favour today. However the drop in trip may not suit all too well. Most interesting runner is the lightly raced five year old gelding Sheila's Heart. He is still a maiden but showed promise in most of his races. 

The drop in trip back to 12f should be ideal today and with the mark slipping further, he is one to take seriously with cheek-pieces fitted for the first time. They may well make a difference, and if they can squeeze out just a bit improvement, then Sheila's Heart will go close. The booking of 7lb claimer Aaron Jones is a big bonus. Not only is his claim a benefit, but this young man is red hot at the moment and riding extremely well for his weight allowance. I expect Sheila's Heart to leave all his ordinary forms behind today and be right there when it matters. 

Sheila's Heart @10/1 William Hill

Wednesday's Blog

We talked about Tempus Temporis yesterday already. He was a value selection on Sundays opening Chelmsford card. Since winners don't come by easy, one has to celebrate if there is something to celebrate. So enjoy the replay of the race and see the impressive performance of this promising Godolphin prospect with your own eyes.

No luck yesterday at Southwell. My two selections did give me a run for the money - to a certain extend at least - but ultimately it is about getting the head over the line first. First selection Ametrine travelled really nicely on the outside for a long time. She clearly takes well to the surface. However she got very tired inside the final two furlongs and was effectively pulled up. I wouldn't quite give up on her yet. With this run under her belt, she may strip fitter and go really well the next time. However the way she almost refused to finish her race yesterday, is alarming and could also mean that she has had enough of the game. Seychelloise on the other hand finished well - however found one rival too good for her. I think she did way too much early on from her draw, was pushed forward and travelled throughout wide. One could also say she simply ran to her level of form, which is a mid-sixties filly, lightly framed with no scope. 

Not much going on today. Some okay All-Weather racing at Lingfield and Kempton. The usual mid-week stuff. Mostly low-grade. Which is not bad if you like it. I do like it, particularly Kempton. Fancy a couple on the card, but will restrict myself to one bet only.

6.10 Kempton: Class 5 Handicap - 7f - Picks Pinta is a rather consistent individual who looked a bit in the grip of the handicapper recently. Down to 72 now, he is however on a mark he is well up to I feel. His best performances came when he was right up with the pace, which was not the case in most of his last starts. So it is interesting to see him fitted with blinkers for the first time today. They may sharpen him up and I would imagine that reverting to positive tactics will see him go really close, and possible achieving a career highest.

Picks Pinta @ 16/1 William Hill

Southwell Betting - Tuesday 13th January 2015

1.45 Southwell: Class 6 Handicap, 1m - A poor low grade Handicap with plenty of those usual old warriors going to post here. However the Jarvis filly Ametrine is a bit of an exception and an interesting runner. On her Southwell debut today, you can't be sure if she takes to the surface. More often than not horses struggle on their fibresand debut. I believe the pro's for Ametrine's case outweigh this negative fact, though. This now four year old filly showed a bit of promise as a juvenile, however wasn't quite able to progress an awful lot last season. She moved quickly into low grade Handicaps were she finished third on two occasions, and both forms look at least useful, taken into account that the horses she finished behind did well in the aftermath. 

She ended the year with a poor showing in July and is now back on track after a half year long break. Fitness is a question mark, but Fanning booked and first time blinkers applied, suggest that she is not here for a lazy jog around the course. Ametrine is actually pretty well bred, even though she clearly isn't living up to her pedigree. However off her current mark, she may well have still a bit more to offer, at least in such a poor field. She is still lightly raced, has the potential to improve and the drop in trip to one mile could suit her extremely well I feel. For that reason I'll give her a chance for a bigger price today. 

Ametrine @ 9/1 Coral - 5pts win

2.50 Southwell: Maiden, 6f - This is a very interesting filly going back into maiden company after a couple of decent outings as a juvenile last year. She finished a very fair third here at Southwell over course and distance back in December when last seen in a hot little handicap. She was eased down in the final furlong when it became apparent that she wouldn't be able to challenge for the win, but was only three lengths beaten behind a now 80 rated individual. Seychelloise clearly improved in this run compared to her Southwell debut outing and I believe with this experience under her belt she is poised to do very well on this fibresand surface. She was clearly keen to get on with things here the last time, unlike when she got a first taste of the deep Southwell surface. 

This filly is pretty nicely bred and should have naturally a bit of talent, she looked small and light last year though and on pedigree is expected to improve with age and experience. So turning three years of age now, one would hope she can leave last seasons forms behind. Her mark of 65 is low enough and her profile suggests that a run of subsequent wins is not unlikely, given that she is trained by a certain Mr. Prescott - even though this doesn't really matter in a maiden today. Interestingly Seychelloise is fitted with blinkers for the first time. Maybe she lacked a bit of focus when it really mattered in her starts so far. So this may help her to finish her races better. I suspect that connections are very keen to get a maiden win on the boards with her, as she could be an interesting broodmare prospect in the future, given her breeding. But today is what matters first, and in this not overly exciting field, Seychelloise should have too much on her plate for her rivals.

Seychelloise @ 9/4 Coral - 10pts win


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We had a nice winner on Sunday on Chelmsford City's opening card. Tempus Temporis (7/2) won really well his race by five lengths, pulling clear once unleashed in the home straight. He produced a nice little turn of foot and let his well fancied stable mate far behind. In general it was a very nice day of racing at Chelmsford. A bit of kickback, yes, but this should get better in time. Otherwise the track reminds me very much of Wolverhampton in terms of its layout, even though it seems you need even more a horse with the ability to change gear here, due to the very sharp home bend and the short run-in.

[Photo: www.Guardian.com]

Chelmsford Racecourse opening

A new area for racing in the UK starts today. Well, kind of. Chelmsford Racecourse opens its doors for their first meeting since the course was closed a couple of years ago, back then still referred to as Great Leighs. A massive redevelopment project took place over the time, with new facilities built as well as a grand stand. All is set and go, trails took place and the course has been approved. The BHA allocated fixtures, and now it's time to let the horses lose! Be prepared for Chelmsford playing a substantial role in our daily racing, from now on. For their first meeting, the course has put together a strong card, which will kick-off with a 20k Handicap! So, let's try to find the winner...

12.50 Chelmsford: Class 2 Handicap, 10f

Rebellious Guest: Fair third lto at Lingfield, on realistic mark without being overly well handicapped. Won over 10f once but trip probably not his optimum. Big weight to shoulder. First time headgear

Spes Nostra: Bit unlucky lto at Wolverhampton when short of room at crucial stage, beaten in final strides penultimate start. High enough in the mark but likely pace angle in the race.

Docs Legacy: Impressive winner when last seen at Wolverhampton in November. Thriving on the All-Weather. Career highest required today.

Swing Alone: Didn’t take to fibresand lto and outstayed at Lingfield over 12f. Won well over preferred 10f at Lingfield in December. Consistent, optimum trip today and on fair mark.

Tryster: Very promising last summer but green and badly hanging when last seen at Newmarket after travelling strongly. Absence since a worry. Should take to AW on pedigree. 

Gaelic Silver: On a four-timer, in spending form, optimum trip today but much more required as well a career highest.

Tatting: Looks very much up against it and didn’t seem to stay 10f in the past. 

Godolphin's lightly raced Tryster proves to be a popular choice in the betting and it is easy to see why. He could easily the one with the most improvement and talent in this field. On the three occasions he appeared racing last summer, he showed potential. A good debut, followed by an impressive maiden success, while on Handicap debut he travelled like the winner until suddenly hanging his chances literally away. Considering that he was off for half a year, though, one has to be cautious and for that reason I'm happy to oppose him for a very short price. 

Rebellious Guest appears to me to be still too high in the weights, in order for him to win this competitive race. While his mark comes down, he has still to shoulder a huge top weight today and that may see him struggle. Gaelic Silver has been in tremendous form lately, question mark is if he can improve again to be competitive in a strong race as this is? His price tag is too short for me to give him the benefit of the doubt. Docs Legacy looks the rock solid choice in contrast. He won so well when last seen, that he could well be able to defy a 5lb rise in the mark. He is a fair price. 

Two horses are potentially overpriced here in my mind: Spes Nostra is the first one. He loves the All-Weather and was massively progressive on this surface over the years. One can forgive him his latest run, where he found himself short of room at a crucial stage, while in his penultimate start he made all in a very competitive race and just got beaten in the dying strides. He is the pace angle in this race. Says he is likely to be the only one who wants to go forward and that may give him an edge if the field allows him a soft lead. Spes Nostra has yet to win off a mark as high as the current one, but I give him the benefit of the doubt to prove today that he is up to this rating off 90. The other overpriced horse is Wing Alone. He is on a very fair mark, has won races off marks in this range in the past and is back to his optimum 10f trip. Southwell the last time is a form to ignore as he didn't take to the surface, and he was outstayed over 12f before But he won off 88 at Lingfield in fine style before against a runner-up who finished 3rd in a Listed contest as well as being successful in a hot Handicap subsequently. 

Spes Nostra @ 6/1 PP - 5pts win

Wing Alone @ 14/1 VC - 5pts win

2.50 Chelmsford: Conditions Stakes, 1m - Interesting little race with some promising sorts, however I feel it is easy to narrow down the field to the two Godolphin runners. Anonymous John is consistent, but would need to find some substantial improvement for the step up in trip in order to trouble the two boys in blue, and that is not the likeliest thing to happen. Princess Of Paris has a good deal to find while My Mistress is obviously open to improvement but this is also a big ask on her only second start now against the boys. 

Super Kid's Maiden win is a standout form, since he left subsequent Group 3 winner Maftool behind him that day. He went on to finish runner-up to an excellent stablemate in a conditions race at Linfield when seen the last time back in November. Not stepping up in trip, one would hope he could improve for the mile and the pedigree gives him a chance to do so. First time blinkers may help him to stay focused in the closing stages. However given his very short price tag, I believe Tempus Temporis offers better value. The Gosden trained runner left his maiden form behind at Kempton last month when he stormed home to land a class five Handicap. The change of gear was impressive and the way he won with ease was eye-catching. Blinkers first time fitted clearly worked. More is required today, but he should have much more improvement left in him. Tempus Temporis wasn't a cheap yearling, coming at $300k and is obviously nicely bred. So there could be more to come and given that he is more than double the price of his well fancied stable mate, I believe the 7/2 for him are too big.

Tempus Temporis @ 7/2 VC - 5pts win

Queen's Plate Review

Great performance by Futura to win after a troubled preparation! He trailed the pace and moved up when it mattered. Excellent ride by Bernard Fayd'Herbe to make sure the horse gets a clear passage on the outside of the field. He produced a nice little turn of foot and won well. He'll be the bookies favourite for the J&B Met now I would imagine and has every right to be so as potentially he should improve and is a better horse over further than the mile trip. 

Triple Crown champ Louis The King might be the one to take out of this race, though, in my mind. He travelled really well on the inside but in contrast to winner Futura, didn't get a clear passage there. In fact Piere Strydom's hands were tied and he had to wait and suffer. Only until very late Louis The King got out into the clear and then finished like a train. In my mind he should be more suited to Met Trip anyway and Queen#s Plate was after not his target after all. In fact connections may be quiet happy to see how well he performed without getting a hard ride at all. 

Obviously the big disappointment was 2/5 favourite Legislate. He was flat to the boards 400m out and soon lost his position. That didn't look like the horse we have seen in all those heroic performances before and it was aparant that something must have been wrong with him. No surprise then when it turned out in the aftermath that there was a reason for this poor showing, indeed. Trainer Justin Sneith revealed: "Legislate's post-race vetting revealed that he has a serious viral infection. He will only run the Met if he is 100% fit."

The three year old Kingvoldt was up with the pace and looked to have a chance 2f out, just to fade off badly, which sadly may confirm that this 1.600m trip is beyond him and a drop in trip is needed to see the best of him. Wouldn't give up on him yet as he seems to have loads of gate speed and once reverted to sprinting trips, he could well find back to his best. 

Jet Explorer trailed the pace as so often and travelled particularly well. Under a patient ride, he made eye-catching progress late. He did so last year in the very same race, and for that reason doesn't strike me as one to take out here for the Met.

Betting: Lingfield, 10th January 2015

Alfred Hutchinson: Goes well at Lingfield, but struggled in two starts this winter to go really close. First time visor needs to rejuvenate him.

Big Baz: Won really well at Lingfield recently and followed up with narrow defeat at Kempton. Clearly in outstanding form and loves the All-Weather.  

Bravo Echo: Won a couple of races last year, back after break. Should find this opposition too tough.

Captain Joy: Won two on the bounce over in Ireland at Dundalk, competitive performer over the years in higher grades and good Handicaps. Second highest rated and should go close. 

Dastarhon: Once French 2.000 Guineas runner-up, creditable efforts over shorter last twice and back up in trip a positive. Performs on AW and interesting to be brought over for this with first time Cheek-pieces. 

Linton: Not been able to find back to his brilliant best since being back in the UK. Formerly Group winner in Australia, on old form huge chance but may be flattered by current rating these days. 

Pool House: Progressive last winter, not seen since June. Has stamina questions to answer. 

The Irish raider Captain Joy has fantastic form to offer and it is telling that connections brought him over for this. He should go definitely close. He is a very short price though and may prefer 7f over the mile trip. So on that basis he might be opposable in this competitive race. Form choice could be Big Baz. He really excels on the All-Weather and his latest two performances are strong. He may have still a bit more to offer. Alfred Hutchinson finds it tough these days and the headgear has to bring back the spark. He was well beaten by Big Baz when the two met here at Lingfield recently. 

The French horse Dastarhon is a very interesting contender. He was once good enough to finish second in the 2013 French 2.000 Guineas. And while he didn’t quite fulfilled the promise subsequently, he has still some fine form to his names. He acts on the surface and his last two performances over shorter when he wasn’t too far away are noteworthy, particularly in the contest that he is back to his preferred mile. First time headgear may help him to squeeze out a bit more today. At 7/1 he looks a compelling alternative in the betting to the market leaders. 

2.35 Lingfield: Dastarhon @ 7/1 Ladbrokes – 5pts win

Photo: credit to www.sporthorse-data.com

Queen's Plate Preview - Legislate the one to beat!

What a race we have in prospect today at Kenilworth. It's South Africa's premier one mile race - the Queen's Plate! A nine runners strong field goes to post at 2.40pm UK time. In South Africa there have been some people disappointed about the field size. "Only" nine runners for such a prestigious race. Usually you have double figure strong fields for the big Grade 1's. On the other hand, nine runners - there are plenty of European Grade 1's that have trouble to pose anything close to that number actually. So it is not as bad as it may seem. 

Particularly because the seemingly unbeatable Legislate is surly the one to beat. The highest rated individual in the country, horse of the year and multiple Grade 1 winner. Yet it won't be a walk in the park today. Because the best horses aren't avoiding each other in South Africa. In fact they take each other on. And this fact is what is what we really need to embrace. 

Legislate is on five races long winning streak. He won the countries most prestigious races last year, with the Daily News as well as the highlight of the racing calendar, the Durban July! With that adding to spectacular Guineas and Derby triumphs. Back after a break recently, he destroyed a classy field in the Grade 2 Green Point Stakes without any fuss, despite the fact that he was probably only half fit. That says he is potentially a better horse over further than todays 1.600m trip. However his record speaks for itself. Legislate will try to make the Queen's Plate/J&B Met double perfect. Which would be some achievement and in that he'd better South Africa's most recent international star Variety Club. I'd go as far as saying: Legislate is even better than Variety Club - and we all know what VC did once he left the country to show-class his talent abroad. 

First of all, Legislate has to beat some tough opposition today, though. Most notably Louis The King. The South African Triple Crown winner - last season as a 3yo (Gauteng Guineas, the SA Classic and the SA Derby over trips from 7f-12f). He was probably over the boil in the Durban July but was back with a bang after a break last month! Louis The King stormed home in the Grade 1 Sansui Summer Cup, one of the top races of the calendar, beating 18 rivals! He had to give loads of weight away to young and old that day but he prevailed in a thrilling finish. He is an absolute super star in his very own right, however he hasn't been able to beat Legislate yet and he may fall short over the mile trip yet again. He is better over further and one would expect him to have the J&B Met as his main target in sight. 

Exciting youngster Futura was one of the hype horses towards the end last season but he fully lived up to it, running a hell of a race in the Durban July, just to win a deserved first Grade 1 subsequently. He couldn't match Legislate's turn of foot in the Green Point Stakes and had a troubled preparation for the Queen's Plate. He'll run his race but I suspect he'll be best watched this time and will be of much more interest in the Met. 

Jet Explorer and Tellina are fine horses in their own right, and they may well sneak into the places if one of the bigger guns fails to deliver. But realistically, they are not good enough. The same may not quiet be said about the only 3yo in the lin-up - Kingvoldt. He was a spectacular juvenile, but suffered some setbacks in the middle of last year. However nicely brought back to his best, he produced two very fine performances in Graded company against his own age the last two. His third behind top three year old Act Of War in the Grade 1 Cape Guineas is very useful form. He has yet to win over 1.600m, but on pedigree he has every chance to get the trip and the potentially slow pace should suit him today. At a big price I take a chance on him to finish in the money and to make his WFO allowance to count. 

That says, Legislate is of course the one they all have to beat. Currently trading at around 1/2, one can easily see what tough task the rest of the field has on their hands. I'm a huge fan of this horse and would absolutely love to see him romp home. However it is also great to see so much quality in this nine runner field. It should be a spectacular race. So make sure to tune it - At The Races committed to show the race!  

Selection: Kingvoldt E/W @ 16/1 Coral

Dubai World Cup Carnival is truly alive - A Review

SURFER: It was his target, and he ran like he clearly knew what he was supposed to do on the day. Surfer won the Group 2 Al Maktoum Challenge Round two in taking style while making most of his draw. Never too far off the pace, he attacked turning for home and was able to get lose one furlong out to draw clear by a bit more than two lengths in the end. This is particularly sweet since he was my selection for this race. Favourite Outstrip absolutely hated the Dirt on his Meydan debut. He was outpaced early on and subsequently never really in the race. The tough English runner Ocean Tempest also didn't look happy at all on this surface. A fact we may have to conclude more often than not in the next couple of weeks when we talk about European runners on the Meydan Dirt track. 

TRUE STORY: Impressive success for True Stroy in the Listed Singspiel Stakes. In hindsight, one could say he was very much entitled to win as good as he did. First time headgear, the gelding operation and being fresh clearly rejuvenated him. The change of gear he was able to produce entering the home straight demonstrated why he was once thought to be a leading Epsom Derby contender. Question is now if he'll be able to reproduce the same sort of form against tougher opposition the next time. This win meant that James Doyle was off to a flying start for the boys in blue. Recently acquired as the retained jockey for Godolphin, he couldn't have envisioned a better start.

DE KOCK: South Africa's top trainer has a rather slow start this season but one should expect that form will pick up soon. Some horses did perform eye-catchingly today and believing his words, his whole string is expected to improve with growing match fitness. Ajeeb was one that particularly caught my eye. Over 5f in the turf sprint, he travelled very well for a long time trailing the field and making some really nice progress late without getting a particularly hard race. Given the fact that he was off for more than a year and was once runner-up in a 7f Group 2 in Australia as well as only five lengths beaten in top class company behind Atlantic Jewel, one can easily see why this colt could be very interesting moving forward from here. Expect him to strip fitter next time and when stepping up in trip, he'll be one to have the money on I feel. Another interesting De Kock runner to keep in mind might be classy Sansaawhes. He was in receive of a slightly odd ride by Soumillon but finished very well and should come on for this run after being back from a break as well. 

MUSIC THEORY: An absolute nightmare run for the Godolphin gelding in the final race. He travelled extremely well in rear of the field but had absolutely nowhere to go in the home straight. He got bumped and had to fight for a gap, but once he got out late, he finished like a train. Keep an eye on him, he could go all the way into pattern class. Music Theory was a very promising juvenile when he finished once less than three lengths behind Kingman in the Solario Stakes. He had only two starts last year but ended 2014 with a fine runner-up effort at Lingfield. His lightly raced profile let's assume that there is still a good deal of improvement left.

DIRT: It is almost impossible to win from the rear of the field. The kick-back is horrible and it looks a bit like Wolverhampton at its worst days before the relay of the new surface... well Meydan today looked probably even worse! The vast majority of dirt races were won by horses very much up with the speed - with the only exception the 7f Handicap where they went a relentless gallop. So the trend from the minor meetings clearly continues in that sense. Doesn't mean that spectacular racing isn't be possible on this surface, however visually it isn't particularly pretty - not to my eyes at least. The beauty of flat racing for me is when you see a strong travelling horse looming hard on the bridle around the 2f marker, waiting to be unleashed to go and win the race. That's why I once fell so much in love with Paco Boy. His 2010 Lockinge Stakes success or the year before the Queen Anne triumph - simply poetry in motion!

Photo: © www.dubaiworldcup.com

Kick-Off! 2015 Dubai World Cup Carnival

It's this time of the year when Meydan really comes alive usually. Reason enough for me to look of what's on the tab on Thursday, when the The Dubai World Cup Carnival starts with a competitive card.

All eyes will be on the Al Maktoum Challenge, the Group 2 contest with a couple of interesting European runners in the line-up. It is a particularly intriguing contest because it is also the first Graded contest on the new Meydan Dirt surface. After a couple of minor meetings, it is fair to say that the surface needs still some time to bed in properly, that therefore the kickback is quite extreme and that horses up with the pace have a major advantage. That all can change with time, but surly are factors to keep in mind for the moment. How will the European runners perform on this surface? That's obviously a major question, and tomorrow surly gives us a first taste of what is to come. 

Personally I'm not a fan of Dirt racing. Never been and never will. The Tapeta surface wasn't without it's issues, but I liked it as it gave the impression to be rather fair and save. Fair in that sense, that artificial surfaces often do favour prominent horses, but that it appeared to be the case at Meydan that horses could win from virtually anywhere. And that despite the way the track is shaped, which gives prominent runners naturally an advantage due to the short run-in. Anyway, that's the past and it remains to be seen how the dirt surface will perform, and if it does in fact attract large numbers of top class US horses - which was the main reason behind the change. it has to be stated that this is certainly not the case as of yet at least, as no US runner is entered on Thursday

5.40 Al Maktoum Challenge: Surfer proved to be very progressive in the last couple of years since he moved over to Dubai. He seemed to have a particular liking for the Tapeta surface, and his 3rd place in the Group 1 Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 last March was a new career high. He was back after a break last month in a Listed contest, when trying to take to the Dirt for the first time. He tracked the pace and travelled beautifully and was then able to go by the long time leader inside the final furlong when it really mattered eventually. He is expected to improve from this run and as we've seen  the surface is no issue at all, so he'll be hard to beat starting from pole position I feel.

I find it hard to make a case for Outstrip. I suspect that the dirt will be a big problem for him first time out and while he ran with credit behind Kingman last season, his two other performances were abysmal. I just find it hard to support him for a short price. He has to show something tomorrow before I'd ever back him again. De Kock's horses are always interesting, I feel that they may benefit from this run tomorrow though  and might be of much more interest the next time. For a bigger price, Zambucca could be interesting with the recent start under his belt. He was a very good horse in South Africa and didn't do too badly in Meydan either. He lost his way over in the UK but could be interesting if going forward with positive tactics tomorrow. Capital Attraction loved it here around Meydan on the old Tapeta. If he can bring his A-game to the dirt after a break, he'll be a big runner too. 

5.05 Singspiel Stakes: This race evolves around True Story. Once thought to be a potential Derby winner, yet his star faded almost as quickly as it emerged last summer. Gelded and fresh after a break, connections must hope he'll find back to his best under the warm Dubai sun. I admit he has a good chance to score tomorrow if the mentioned things rejuvenate him. However he is not a price to get involved in. That says True Story is clearly is talented, and a big performance would be great to see from him. Mushreq is a very good horse, he proved that with a couple of nice performances last season in particular. He was recently beaten over 11f at Abu Dhabi. Drop in trip will suit but he's short enough in the betting and may found one or two too strong in this grade. 

Be Ready looked very promising as a 2yo but had clearly some bad injury problems last year. Remains to be seen whether he has retained some of his ability. De Kock's Sanshaawes is a very exciting runner if fully wound up after a break. He won a couple of Handicaps here last year and finished a fine runner-up on the Tapeta track in the Group 1 Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3. Two lesser efforts in very hot company may be forgiven and the drop in grade will surly help to see him competitive. He is a very attractive price and my choice in this race. 

5pts Surfer @ 9/2 PP

5pts Sanshaawes @ 5/1 PP

Betting: Wednesday 7th January 2015

5.40 Kempton: Class 4 Handicap, 7f

Democretes: Won last time in 2011 and never won off higher than 78 and never beyond 6f, however been placed on numerous occasions off much higher up to 1m. Down to more realistic mark and down in grade, though didn’t quite excel on AW yet.

Brigliadoro: Still not too many miles on the clock, won over CD off 10lb lower in October last year. Shoulder beaten over CD lto, up 5lb in the mark. More improvement required again today. 

History Book: Lightly raced, won debut over 9f at Wolverhampton two years ago. Change of tactics saw him go close over 1m lto at Lingfield, when making all and tiring very late. Drop to 7f for the first time, 5lb claimer booked.

Stonefield Flyer: Two times CD winner. Couldn’t follow up on November success in last two but ran with credit and still on fair mark. Won off higher in the past.

Eastern Dragon: Soft ground loving gelding, also goes well on AW. Hasn’t been seen since Ocrober when 3rd at Newmarket. Return to AW interesting and won after break in the past, but on career highest mark and up against it.

Rouge Nuage: Improved on AW last year and won over 7f at Wolverhampton LTO. Likely to be up with pace. Career highest mark to defy.

Marjong: Seemed to find 7f too far in the past, however consistent when last seen end of summer last year. Chance on good handicap mark.

Pactolus: Lightly raced one time maiden winner over CD last winter. Ran okay since then in 2014 without winning. Back after break and not impossible that he has still more to offer. 

Verdict: The lightly raced Pactolus looks an interesting prospect if fully fit. He has potential to improve from what he has shown in the past and as the bottom weight with a 7lb claimer on board, he has any right to be a prominent choice in the betting. The fact that he hasn't won since getting off the mark in a very poor Kempton maiden is something to worry about though, in a tough competition, as this is. Therefore his short price doesn't appeal to me at all. Brigliadoro looks a very fair price, considering his fine form. He may still have a bit improvement left in him and his recent close second proves that he is in good order. However up in the mark by five pounds for this recent performance makes the task more difficult today. He is nonetheless one who should have the ability to go close, yet the improvement is very much reflected in the price already. 

Stonefield Flyer won off higher than his current mark in the past and was back in form with a CD success in November. He couldn't quite live up to his revised mark, even though he ran well enough. He's got any chance to be thereabouts today, but it is a question mark if he is really better than an 80 rated animal these days. Marjong gets a chance from the handicapper and a fair run is on the card if he can stay the trip, which he found rather beyond him in three starts to date. He's been consistent though, and therefore needs to enter calculations. Eastern Dragon could be interesting back on the All-Weather now, however he appears not handicapped to win. The top weight Democretes finds it tough to win and his record speaks against him in this competitive field. 

Godolphin's History Book in contrast is one who makes plenty of appeal to me. A consistent performer, goes well on the All-Weather and looked a ready winner last time at Lingfield until caught in the dying strides. A drop to 7f for the first time is certainly interesting and with new positive tactics could be exactly what he needs to get finally his head in front again. He is still lightly races with a bit improvement possible to come, and with a fair handicap mark to play with as well as a decent 5lb claimer booked for the ride, he is the one to side with considering his tasty price tag in the betting which looks too big. 

History Book @ 11/2 VC - 5pts win