Divea potentially well handicapped over extreme trip...

14.30 Lingfield: Mossgo @ 10/1 + Outbid @ 14/1 Bet365 - 1pt win each Bet365

 This is a shockingly awful race, which opens the door for the two 3yo Mossgo and Outbid, though. The filly Outbid was of interest for me quite recently already, when she ran at Kempton a pretty fine race, finishing second - followed closely behind by Mossgo - coming a good deal clear of the rest of the field. The winner was too strong and could go on to win a couple more races I think, but take her out, the field that day was probably as "strong" as tomorrow, which should give my both selections a chance tomorrow. Outbid came first to my attention on her penultimate run at Wolverhampton, which was way better than the bare form of that race suggest. She had the widest draw to overcome, what is always a negative there, yet she travelled very much the best turning for home, got then, however, badly hampered and had no chance to finish the race. Her best forms all came on the All-Weather, so it was nor surprise to see her beaten at Chepstow after that, even though she travelled nicely for a long time there as well, but didn't find much in the closing stages or simply didn't stay the extra furlong, and was eventually eased down. She won a maiden at Lingfield in good style at the beginning of the year, though, and finished a strong third less than a lengths beaten at Southwell later, so she has a bit of ability and with her low AW mark with decent recent form she can go close in this poor contest.

 Mossgo is a bit a frustrating sort. After his win at Lingfield last winter of a 9lb higher mark than the current one, he didn't show much and as a result the mark slipped down. But his latest run suggests he's turning the corner as he finished a good 3rd, less than half a lengths behind Outbid at Kempton two weeks ago. An interesting performance as he had a bit of a bumped start and was then very keen soon after, as well as short of room approaching the first turn and clipped heels as a result. Yet he travelled strongly until the 2f marker, switched then to the inside once approaching the false rail and finished well hands and heels ridden. With a repeat of that kind of performance he must go very close today. 

16.30 Lingfield: Divea @ 6/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

 Lightly raced filly Divea tackles 2 miles for the first time. She didn't show much in three maidens and two subsequent starts in handicap company on turf but responded well for the switch to the All-Weather and the step up in trip to 12f at Wolverhampton recently. She travelled really strongly in rear of the field for a long time, but got stuck in traffic when trying to make ground from 4f out around the home turn, while much in contrast the leading horses had the run of the race to kick on and fight it out. Once space opened up Divea went for it but had to turn widest of all to do so which cost ground. But once straighten up in the home straight she really motored home in good style to finish 3rd in the end. The way she stayed on is indication that she could cope well with the new trip albeit it is quite a severe step up of course. But she is lightly raced, down to a low mark, has every chance to get the trip and could potentially very well handicapped for this.

Catterick test can bring out best of Viva Ronaldo...

18.10 Catterick: Viva Ronaldo @ 6/1 Coral - 2pts win

Utterly disappointing year for Viva Ronaldo so far and as a result of that he slipped down in the mark, down to 60 now, while winning of 84 last year. There was a hint of form to see in his mist recent run at Musselburgh. He was pretty badly outpaced in rear, got then stuck in traffic in the home straight, switched widest over 1f out and stayed on well there. I feel he is very well handicapped now and judged on this run he should win a race any time soon again. Catterick is a difficult track but maybe it's this kind of test he might relish. It's a really poor race and the assistance of a 7lb claimer makes him super well weighted here. He would probably prefer a bit cut in the ground, but good ground is fine nonetheless and as Richard Fahey is in excellent form so I hope Viva Ronaldo can finally win a race again.

Master Carpenter to make the most of soft going...

16.05 Newbury: Master Carpenter @ 5/1 William Hill *BOG* - 3pts win

Master Carpenter is the highest rated horse in this field and on form the strongest contender anyway. He comes in this race after a very strong performance at Doncaster in a hot class 2 Handicap. He travelled really well that day, but got a bit stuck in traffic in a key moment of the race, when the horses in front had the chance to kick on while he had to delay his challenge. Once in the clear he took a while to hit top gear as he doesn't really look to have a decisive turn of foot, not over 7f at least, but it isn't easy for a young horse to demonstrate a sudden acceleration when it's stuck behind other horses and suddenly a gap opens. He finished the race super strongly then tough, to finish in 2nd place. I suspect he gets further and would be suited by a step up in trip to 1m but for now seven furlongs should be fine, particularly on soft ground. His sire Mastercraftsman absolutely relished these kind of conditions and as acceleration isn't really that easy on slow going this should play into Master Carpenter's hands and running style who will stay all the way to the line once he is in full swing.

The Eye-Catcher: Friday the 20th of September...

Good run by Baddilini today, not quite good enough to win, though. 2nd place...

14.20 Ayr: The Nifty Fox @ 18/1 Bet365 - 1pt win

The Nifty Fox doesn't appear to be too well handicapped, yet I feel he has conditions very much in favour tomorrow as well as he showed some fine performances recently. His most recent run at Hamilton in a hot sprint handicap really caught my eye as he was travelling very much the best of all, appearing to be on the bridle until 1f out. He didn't quite come home and finished 5th in the end but I do feel this was a big performance. The drop in trip back to 5f will really suit and The Nifty Fox absolutely loves cut in the ground, not to forget he's one from one over course and distance! He is drawn in 13 which should give Philli Makin every chance to go wherever he feels it is the best place to go, if the field splits into different groups. Of course this is a very strong race here tomorrow, hugely competitive and The Nifty Fox doesn't get any younger, but 18/1 looks pretty big and I expect him to run well.

The Eye-Catcher: Thursday the 19th of September...

17.20 Yarmouth: Baddilini @ 11/2 Bet365 - 3pts win

Baddilini showed a clear return to form at the same track only two days ago, when staying on strongly over 5f. He appeared to be pretty early on outpaced, and lost ground over 3f out, stayed on strongly in the closing stages though to almost catch the eventual winner. The step up in trip to 6f tomorrow will certainly suit as Baddilini best performances came over this distance anyway. Until Tuesday he didn't show much this year, even though he ran in better races and off higher marks, after a successful year 2012, which saw him winning a class 2 Handicap and running a blinder in a listed race. He's been once rated 93 and is now able to race of 82, a career lowest mark. As stated he looked very dangerous of the same mark only two days ago on same ground conditions as expected tomorrow, and therefore with the 6f trip better to suit, in an open race, Baddilini looks overpriced.

Wise Dan the best in the world?

Is Wise Dan the best horse in the world? Difficult question to answer of course, but on thing is for sure, he must come close to be the one. His win in the Woodbine Mile on Sunday was nothing but simply astonishing. Hardly off the bridle, easily dominating a decent field in a Grade 1 to win in track record breaking time! Sit back and enjoy:

The Eye-Catcher: Wednesday the 18th of September...

18.15 Kempton: Mawzoona @ 18/1 VC - 2pts win

Compared to many others in this field Mawzoona looks fairly exposed, but only at the first glance. In fact this is her first start over 10f tomorrow and all her other forms came over shorter. There is enough in her pedigree to suggest that the trip could suit and that she might able to improve a good bit. Interesting enough that this gets backed by her performances at the racetrack. She really caught my eye on her most recent run, here at Kempton over 7f, a trip way too sharp for her. Mawzoona is a one-paced filly, with not much speed and that was obvious in this race when she travelled well enough but was simply killed for speed when the race really unfolded after turning for home. She got badly outpaced, lost ground but interestingly stayed on well to finish 3rd in the end.

This was the first good performance in Handicap company for her, after she got allocated a pretty stiff mark in first hand as a result of a gutsy performance in her third maiden start, when she attempted to make all, got under pressure around 2f out, was eventually headed and overtaken, but came back with a strong challenge in the dying stages of the race to finish 2nd only a shoulder beaten. This was over 1m and the performance was a strong hint that even that kind of trip is too short and that she needs further. So all in all, down to a mark of 62, with likely improvement over the new trip, she must have a better chance of winning than the price suggest. 

The Eye-Catcher: Monday the 16th of September...

14.30 Wolverhampton: Olivers Mount @ 16/1 Bet365 - 1pt win

Olivers Mount produced a way better performance than the bare result would suggest last time out at Kempton and on that evidence he's certainly overpriced in my mind. He missed slightly the break, travelled then well enough in rear, while the pace of the race was pretty slow though and in fact the first five home, bar one exception, were all positioned close to the pace. Olivers Mount turned home well off the pace though, had to switch wide then in order to get a clear run and motored home in good style once straighten up. He was only one of very few horses from off the pace who have been able to make some kind of impression in the closing stages. He might get further than 1m according to his pedigree, so the extended mile at Wolverhampton tomorrow should be in his favour I suppose. He's also still lightly raced, down to a super low mark and has the assistance of a 5lb claimer. I think he can go well tomorrow for a big price.

Edit: Non-Runner.

Big Race Preview: English St Leger

15.50 Doncaster: Ladbrokes St Leger 2013

It looks an exciting and very competitive St Leger this year and you can make a case for many of the eleven runners. The betting market demonstrates this quite well, with the favourite being a 5/1 chance in general! Much in contrast to many I don't really fancy Galileo Rock today, though. I would have loved to see him at the Curragh, in the Irish equivalent tomorrow. I think the ground is not exactly what he wants today, despite the fact that it isn't as soft as feared. Yet I have the feeling he could be a horse that is knocking always on the door, running consistently well all the time, but find it hard to get the head in front when it matters. I really like the chances of the lightly raced Gosden horse Excess Knowledge, though, who was so unlucky at Goodwood and who should have so much more to give, with further improvement likely to come over the new trip. However I feel the improvement is already reflected in the price and therefore it's only a fair one, but not tempting for me. It's a bit the same story with Leading Light, who has excellent credentials to win the race, with no doubts over the ability to stay the trip, as well as having good, solid Group 3 form in the form book. He'll go very close if he can raise his game as he's yet to contest such a quality field. I'm not really fond on Foundry, who isn't sure to stay the trip and will find this tough on only the third career start, while Talent is a horse I find it difficult to get a grip on. If she bounces back after the dismal run at the Curragh she is in with a chance but the current price isn't tempting to find this out with my own money.

That brings me to Libertarian. When I made my tissue and compared to the offered prices this morning I couldn't really believe what I saw. Libertarian is a 15/2 chance at the moment, which looks really big in my mind - if you can forgive him the poor effort in the Irish Derby. But there might be valid excuses for it, as it was the third hard race against top class opposition in five weeks. Maybe just too much. Libertarian looked like a real stayer when winning the Dante Stakes in May, when he beat subsequent Irish Derby winner Trading Leather in good style. The step up to the Derby trip was clearly in his favour then, but even then he got outpaced around 4f out and it took him a while to get going. But when he got going, he was absolutely flying, finishing the best of all and came from an impossible position to finish 2nd on the line! It is clear that he needs further and that is what he gets today. If he has recovered well, is fresh and fit and doesn't get in trouble in-running then I find it very hard to look beyond him. Libertarian has the right profile to win the Leger, he has the form in the book, and he is a price too good to let go.

A second runner I feel is pretty overpriced is the Fallon mount Great Hall. Sure he has a lot to find on the ratings but he has every chance to stay the trip on pedigree and even more so he looks a real stayer the way he's usually finishing off his races. Always galloping to the line, finishing full of running and he looked to have a bit of class when winning at Haydock over 14f a class 2 Handicap in July. He is a tricky ride no doubt, still a bit green and was badly hanging in his last two starts, but he should have learned plenty in the meantime and I can see him really relishing the Leger trip. If he is good enough is another question, but he is lightly raced, entitled to improvement and can therefore be in the mix. The offered 28/1 look huge in my mind and on paper he has a better chance of winning.

Liberterian @ 15/2 Bet365 - 2pts win

Great Hall @ 28/1 StanJames - 0.5pts win

The Eye-Catcher: Saturday the 14th of September...

17.30 Kempton: Outbid @ 18/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

 On pure form this horse looks to have no chance but I thought her penultimate run at Wolverhampton was way better than the bare form of that race suggest. She had the widest draw to overcome, what is alway a negative there, yet she travelled very much the best turning for home, got then, however, badly hampered and had no chance to finish the race. Her best forms all came on the All-Weather, so it was nor surprise to see her beaten at Chepstow lto, even though she travelled nicely for a long time there as well, but didn't find much in the closing stages or simply didn't stay the extra furlong, and was eventually eased down. She won a maiden at Lingfield in good style at the beginning of the year, though, and finished a strong third less than a lengths beaten at Southwell later, so she has a bit of ability and with her AW mark slipping down a couple of pounds she might be able to take advantage of that tomorrow.

Nap of the day - Friday 13th of September!

17.30 Wolverhampton: Poste Restante @ 9/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Plenty to like about this filly on handicap debut stepping up in trip to 12f for the first time. Poste Restante showed a bit of promise in her second career start at Lingfield, when she missed the break and was pretty early pretty badly outpaced. But it was eye-catching the way she stayed on in the closing stages, suggesting she definitely needs further. This is backed very much so by her pedigree, as there is plenty of stamina both on sire- as well as on dam side. So only for that reason she's very interesting as she should absolutely relish the new trip. Her opening mark looks high enough for what she showed so far on the other hand. But the Simcock yard is bang in form and why would they step up the horse on handicap debut to a trip that looks an excellent fit, if not having the hand break off? In addition to this the young 7lb claimer looks decent, rode a winner for Simcock at Kempton on Tuesday. Having all this in mind it looks to me as if Poste Restante is pretty good value at 9/1 in an otherwise horrible Apprentice Handicap.

3 lessons we've learned on Irish Champion Stakes Day...

My Titania - Like father, like daughter: The Sea The Stars filly My Titania was a huge eye-catcher on her debut run, without winning, though. So it was no surprise to see her being backed into the short 6/4 second favourite before the off of the opening race of Leopardstown's Irish Champion Stakes card. She justified all the money, travelling always prominent throughout and put the race easily to bed, quickening in good style approaching the home straight to win comfortably. Another Sea The Stars filly, Afternoon Sunlight, finished runner-up and could be also a rather promising sort. 

My Titania boosts a nice pedigree, being a daughter of the mighty Sea The Stars of course. There looks to be a good deal of speed on the dam side, as she is out of 7f Listed race winner Fairy Of The Night, who herself is by top-class sprinter Danehill. But - and this is a similarity to My Titania's father Sea The Stars, who had doubts about his staying ability to overcome as well. She might be well able to get 10 furlongs plus in time, as her father being a Derby and Arc winner, the dam's sire has been producing a Derby winner as well, despite his race record would suggest otherwise, and the dam's dam has been a winner over 13f. So that relativise what looked obvious at the first glance. My Titania could be a decent Guineas filly of course, but might be even better over further. Time will tell. She looks an exciting prospect anyway.

Australia is the best ever: Aiden O'Brien was quite bullish in the aftermath of Australia's impressive success in the Group 3 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Trial Stakes. The Son of Galileo beat 2/5 favourite and early Derby ante-post favourite Free Eagle easily by six lengths. He followed up two excellent performances in maidens before at the Curragh. This performance catapulted Australia to the top top of the Derby ante-post market, being a 6/1 chance for the classic next year. O'Brien after the race on Saturday: "Everyone probably knows we always thought he was the best horse we've ever had."

Australia is bred to be a superstar. He is by super-stallion Galileo and out of Cape Cross mare Ouija Board, who was a seven times Group 1 winner herself! He'll be much better over further than the 1m on Saturday, that is for sure and it'll be interesting to see where he pops up next. O'Brien will keep the colt at the mile trip this year I would assume, but will step him up gradually in trip next year. One word in regards of runner-up Free Eagle: It probably is way too early to give up on him. He looks still an exciting prospect. Sure, he didn't quite followed up the hype after his impressive maiden, but he didn't get a hard race and should have still a good deal of improvement left in him, particularly when stepping up in trip.

La Colina is back to her best: It was an emotional Matron Stakes success for La Colina. The four year old filly was never able to match her massive juvenile form, when she beat Ballydoyle's Power in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh - until last Saturday. She travelled well, got out in the clear right on time to produce a nice little turn of foot to win in good style in the end. This wasn't only her first Group success since Phoenix Stakes day - no - it was also her first ever win since then! This is more than two years ago, therefore no one really gave her a chance in the Matron Stakes. La Colina was tried over shorter than a mile and further, ran a couple of nice races, without ever coming close to win, though. So one could say this is a bit of a fairytale. Veteran trainer Kevin Prendergast gets a winner at the highest level, and talented jockey Chris Hayes finally won his first ever Group 1. Respectively he's been quite emotional after the race, with tears of joy running over his face. 

The question is now of course: Can La Colina repeat this success, is she really back to her best? She is always been a talented filly, and she always looked like a superstar in the parade ring. She's beaten some nice fillies on Saturday and there is no reason to think that this isn't a true form. It was a fair race, ran on a pretty strong pace - which might be key to La Colina's success. Wherever she pops up next, if it is a true run race, she'll be certainly in the mix.