Saturday the 27th of April..

Star Alliance was a non-runner....


19.45 Doncaster: Warlu Way @ 14/1 Betfair - 2pts win

Warlu Way looked unlucky on his seasonal reappearance at Pontefract earlier this month. He travelled very well in rear, was still on the bridle turning for home, but got then no in-running luck whatsoever. He was eventually eased down and he finished almost last but this form is to ignore and he should be better with this run under his belt anyway. He's getting down to an interesting mark, now just 2lb over his last winning mark. Conditions are totally fine, the fast ground will very much suit as he needs this kind of underfoot conditions to be seen at his best. Two of his three career wins came over the 10f trip, so I think this distance should be fine as well. Therefore at this price he's well worth a bet. 

Tursday the 25th of April...

 Spanish Duke didn't run a race at all. Very disappointing and no excused having everything in favour. Will my poor form ever end and get back to normal I'm wondering?! Can't remember when this blog produced the last winner...


15.25 Wolverhampton: Star Alliance @ 7/2 Bet365 - 3pts win

He produced a very fine performance last month here at Wolverhampton on his racecourse reappearance after being off the track for almost two years. That was also his first handicap start. He was probably a bit short of fitness that day and was badly outpaced and under pressure from 4f out, losing vital position and getting relegated to the back of the field. As a result he was forced to turn widest of all and lost further ground. Then he found his stride though and stayed on super well in the closing stages to land the 3rd place. He should strip much fitter tomorrow now and should improve for that run, as this will be only his second start in a handicap and his sixth career start over all. This race looks particularly poor and I hope he can take advantage of a low enough looking mark. 

Wednesday the 24th of April...

Bin Singspiel has been a non-runner....


15.55 Epsom: Spanish Duke @ 9/2 bet365 - 2pts win

Spanish Duke looks very well handicapped, is now down to 3lb below his last winning mark, when he won of 95 here at Epsom almost exactly two years ago. He goes well on fast ground as well as on this track, as besides his win, he finished 3rd and also an only 2½ beaten 6th against some tough opposition last year here. What makes him really interesting though is his comeback run which came at Pontefract a fortnight ago. He was slowly into stride and dropped in, trailing the field, which isn't the best position to be at that track, even more so in a race that wasn't run on a rattling pace. Turning for home he was in an impossible position and the only way to make ground was to turn wide. Once in a clear he really powered home in the closing stages, staying on as the only one from behind while a front-runner won it (Lady Loch). With a track much more to suit his running style, what Epsom clearly is, he should be very competitive on his second start this season, particularly with handicap mark and conditions in his favour. It's an obvious bonus that William Buick is booked for the ride. 

Monday the 22nd of April...

20.00 Windsor: Bin Singspiel @ 3/1 Paddy Power - 4pts win

Knocked on the door twice in maidens, when finishing very impressively at Wolverhampton in November last year, when he had all but not the run of the race, he was beaten on the line eventually. He started his 3yo campaign at Yarmouth three weeks ago and while he was under pressure 4f out and badly outpaced, he showed a lovely attitude and stayed on well to finish 2nd in the end. There is no doubt that he's crying out for a step up in distance and this will be provided tomorrow on his first handicap start. His opening mark of 72 looks more than fair and he could be easily better than that, particularly over this 12f trip.

Monday the 15th of April...

15.30 Newcastle: Titus Bolt @ 11/2 Bet365 - 2pts win

Very interesting performance by Titus Bolt lto when he finished 2nd in a strange race at Musselburgh. There was no pace on whatsoever in the early stages of the race and the eventual winner Sartingo enjoyed the run of the race in a way he probably won't do again in his career. Sartingo kicked on 4f out and took the whole field by surprise. He soon had a four lengths lead turning for home and never gave this away. For horses from behind it was impossible to get back to him but Titus Bolt was the one who finished best of all. He travelled nicely, made some good headway turning for home and really finished the race in good fashion in 2nd place, a good deal in front of the rest. He's allowed to race of the same mark again tomorrow, which is 2lb higher than his last winning mark, but he ran some good races in defeat of higher marks, like when he finished a neck beaten in heavy conditions at Windsor last summer, and at the same venue later when he finished 4th over 12f, looking to win it 1f out but didn't stay the trip in the end. 10f looks fine though, the ground is no problem either, and trainer Jim Goldie was very successful at Newcastle last season with almost 18% of his runners having won here. Andrea Atzeni booked for the ride is also quite encouraging. 

Sunday the 14th of April...

15.05 Leopardstown: Bold Thady Quill @ 16/1 Bet365 - 1pt win

 Thriving: Bold Thady Quill 

Bold Thady Quill is really thriving at the moment and ran out some impressive performances recently. He's been an eye-catcher pretty much in all his last three runs and tomorrow looks a race ideal for another big performance. He finished a strong 3rd in the Irish Lincolnshire last month, but was unlucky not to get closer to Sweet Lightning, the eventual winner. He was in a pocket over 3f out, lost position as a result, and had to delay his challenge. Once in the clear he really picked up strongly and finished in impressive fashion. This form is a really strong one with Custom Cut, who finished 16th, winning subsequently a Group 3 at the Curragh, while the 4th Inis Meain finished runners-up to Parish Hall last week. Bold Thady Quill himself won subsequently a Listed race over 6f at Cork in good style and ran a huge race in the Group 3 Gladness Stakes over 7f last week, finishing fourth and coming within a lengths of Group winners Nephrite and La Collina. He was slightly outpaced there over 3f out, but stayed on very well in the closing stages. This race tomorrow here is over 1m, and his record isn't impressive over this distance, but it looks now, as he gets older, that he needs this trip actually and he stays it very well as seen in the Lincolnshire. He might prefer a bit of rain but has also shown that he handles good ground and because I think the short priced favourite is beatable on his seasonal debut I really feel Bold Thady Quill is overpriced as he might have given Sweet Lightning, the second favourite, a real race with a clear run in the Lincolnshire. 

Thursday the 11th of April...

18.00 Kempton: Automotive @ 12/1 Paddy Power - 2pts win

Thought the most recent performance of this still winless gelding was very eye-catching. He almost refused to race and lost many lengths to the main field as a result, trailing for a very long time indeed, but also travelling very well actually. When you see how far he was behind at the 3f marker and if you compare this to how and where he finished eventually it's almost amazing, even though he passed tiring horses of course, but he wasn't hard ridden actually and gained easily loads of ground in the closing stages (pretty impressive to see in the head-on if you recorded the replay). I'm not so much surprised about this because he ran quite well at Lingfield before and comes down a long way in the mark too. For a 5yo he is pretty lightly raced as well. I think the step up in trip back to 1m will definitely suit as well as being back at Kempton. Here he showed his best career performance so far, in December 2011, when he finished a close 2nd staying on over 7f of a mark of 58. Down to 53 now I expect him to be not only competitive but also capable of winning a race, if he gets out of the box of course. Interesting to see young apprentice Shelley Birkett getting the leg up. She rides decent enough I think and claims valuable 7lb, she also has a good partnership with Miss J Feilden getting provided with some good rides from her recently (one winner, one 3rd).

Wednesday the 10th of April...

14.40 Nottingham: Fils Anges: 9/4 Ladbrokes - 5pts win

He won impressively over course and distance last October in a maiden and was very unlucky on his seasonal reappearance last week at Yarmouth when he travelled super well but had a bunch of horses in front of his nose 3f out. He switched to the inside and made eye-catching headway looking the likely winner but was then 1f out again short of room. He had to be switched to the left and picked up again but the bird was flown at that stage obviously. He remains on the same mark and must have a big chance here in this race.

Tuesday the 9th of April...

14.10 Pontefract: Buzz Law @ 7/1 Paddy Power - 2pts win

Huge price I feel for a horse that is certainly well handicapped and the only slight concern if he's race fit. But I would assume so. He's a decent record fresh, winning on his seasonal reappearance in 2011 and jockey booking is quite telling here as Phillip Makin is booked for the ride who has a huge 33% strike rate with Mrs. Burke for the past 12 month. Buzz Law is now down to his last winning mark of 69 which came almost exactly two years ago but he ran some fine races of higher marks, most notably in the summer of 2011 in class 4 handicaps on ground described good to soft, so ground conditions tomorrow should be fine too. Really interesting is his most recent run from August 2012. He was down to his last winning mark for the first time since quite a while, and he travelled like a dream through the race on the bridle until almost 1f out when he made nice headway only hands and heels ridden looking to produce a winning challenge half a furlong out just until he got badly hampered by the eventual winner. So overall there speaks allot in his favour, only slight concern is the big field size, but in a smaller field he'd be a much shorter price anyway. 

Monday the 8th of April...

14.50 Kempton: Aegaeus @ 7/4 Ladbrokes - 7pts win

This 77 rated gelding came to my attention for the first time last November in a Handicap at Lingfield when he was pretty unlucky not to win the race, finishing in a way suggesting he could be much better than his mark and actual form. He won after that a maiden, a form that works out very well and he was put away for the rest of the winter. There are some positive vibes about him from the yard and I think he can turn into a really nice handicapper this year, exploring his lenient looking mark as I feel he has a good deal in hand. 

16.50 Kempton: Midnight Feast @ 7/1 Ladbrokes - 2pts win

It was a huge performance by Midnight Feast here at Kempton in a better race lto when he was wearing blinkers for the first time. He got bumped right after the start yet secured a very prominent position early on, racing in third position close to a fast pace. They really went a decent gallop which is confirmed by the eventual winning time which was 0,31s faster than the standard. So it wasn't a surprise to see the front pair dropping away, but Midnight Feast battled on really hard to finish a decent 3rd eventually. This form works out quite well, so this return to form looks serious and as he slipped down a long way in the mark he looks now to be really competitive to win finally another race. He has the benefit of a good draw tomorrow and drops down in class, so every chance for a big performance. 

Friday the 5th of April...

Can't say how disappointed I am yet again. I do stop betting on races Lingfield from now on as I simply have no confidence in this track anymore. It throws up so many unreliable races and forms, horses travelling in rear are doomed more often than not. Maybe I'm talking out of my pocket, but even then it's fair enough to leave races there unbacked from now on. Thanks god the flat is starts to get into full gear...


17.15 Leicester: Raging Bear @ 4/1 Paddy Power - 4pts win

This lightly raced colt caught my attention in his last two starts with two very fine performances and it was good to see him getting off the mark after a break of 100 days at Lingfield two weeks ago. He travelled nicely that day but had to turn wide and took some time to make an impression as he was probably a bit short of speed compared to the rest of the field over a distance which is very much on the short side for him I feel. Once hitting top gear he really powered home though and won it on the line in the end. I think he's a good deal better than this winning margin suggest but only if he steps up in trip. That's happening tomorrow when he tries 10f for the first time, a trip he should get on pedigree. The handicapper raised his mark by only 2lb which is very lenient in my mind and with Richard Hughes booked for the ride Raging Bear must go close I think.


17.45 Leicester: Aqua Ardens @ 9/2 VC - 3pts win

Aqua Ardens ran a huge race at Lingfield two month ago when he travelled very well in rear, made headway in eye-catching fashion approaching the home straight but found himself short of room over 1f out. He picked up nicely when finally in the clear and ran on strongly to finish 3rd. He steps up to 1m for the first time tomorrow what is really interesting in my mind as there is plenty of stamina both on the sire as well as on the dam side. So I assume Arduinna to really relish this new trip and if so then his mark looks low enough to take advantage of it. 

Thursday the 4th of April...

14.20 Lingfield: Time Square @ 3/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

Time Square was in pretty good form this winter, winning twice in February at Kempton. He looks still in good shape and on a winnable mark judged on his most recent performance at Kempton, when he was pulling very hard early on and made then a bold move halfway through the race taking up the lead and increasing the already generous looking pace. He took the field into the home straight travelling very well and was still able to finish the race in 3rd position despite using so much energy before already. He remains on the same mark for this performance and gets his chance now in a poor apprentice handicap. His ability to race handily should help at a track like Lingfield very much, as the danger is always here that the race is run slowly and then it's certainly an advantage to be ridden close to the pace.



16.40 Lingfield: Rocket Rob @ 12/1 VC - 2pts win

 I was keen on Rocket Rob two weeks ago when he was a non-runner eventually though, but still think this horse looks very interesting and should have a decent chance tomorrow in this race. Wrote the last time:

I thought his most recent performance was an absolute massive one. He had the widest draw to overcome what usually is not an advantage over 5f at Wolverhampton and he also missed the break, trailing the field early on by a couple of lengths, having been hard pushed to get back into contention. He suddenly appeared to be back on the bridle from around 3f out and travelled well enough entering the home straight. He made impressive headway then until getting a clear run denied over 1f out. He had to switch to the right, lost balance and momentum as a result, but picked up again and finished strongly. I think only a horse in good form can finish a race in a way like that under these sort of circumstances.

Wednesday the 3rd of April...

17.00 Lingfield: Jewelled @ 9/2 VC - 3pts win

She was seriously unlucky in her last two starts since returning from a five month long break. At Kempton on her return run she didn't get a clear run in a crucial stage of the race, still managed to finish a strong 3rd and last month at Lingfield she travelled very well in rear but was forced to turn very wide and as a result she lost loads of ground which she made up in impressive fashion in the closing stages coming from an almost impossible fashion to lose out by a neck eventually. She's 2lb up for this effort but she looks so well in form and with these two runs under her belt she might be even fitter and better now. She must be a serious chance in this field anyway I think.