Thursday the 31st of January...

19.50 Wolverhampton: Armada Bay @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

This lightly raced 3yo gelding makes plenty of appeal on his first try over 9f. He ran a huge race here at Wolverhampton just 10 days ago on a day that saw front-runners and prominent ridden horses being favoured by the conditions on the All-Weather track which made it very difficult for horses not ridden close to the pace to quicken and to make some ground from behind. Armada Bay was ridden in mid-field here in her last race, a race where the leader set a rather slow gallop. Armada Bay tried to make some ground on the outside from 3f out then and did so indeed but was outpaced turning for home when the front-runner kicked on and the pace increased substantially. He stayed in touch with the main group of the field and appeared to go strongly then again, though he found himself a clear run denied over 1f out and had to be switched to the outside by his jockey. He found soon back the balance and finished super strongly to land the 2nd place eventually. This performance indicated that a step up in trip could be the right move which is backed up by his pedigree as his sire was a top class miler and there is some stamina on the dam side with her being placed in Group 3 company over 10f. So the step up to 9f tomorrow looks definitely the right thing and could bring out further improvement. A mark of 54 is pretty workable as well and it doesn't take too much to win this race anyway I feel.

Wednesday the 30th of January...

18.20 Kempton: Litmus @ 5/1 Bet365 - 5pts win

I expect this horse to hack up tomorrow as long as she gets a clear run. Might sound like a brave statement for a filly that hasn't won a single race in ten starts. Her last two performances were really eye-catching though and there is no doubt that she's way better than her current mark and better than the horses she's contesting against tomorrow. Eight days ago at Lingfield she travelled smoothly in mid-field actually and looked very dangerous turning for home, didn't have a chance to get a clear run and unleash a challenge however. She was simply locked on the inside as Spining Ridge went alongside her to the right and as a result of that she couldn't get out there. There was no room in front of her either, as the front pair was battling out the win, but there was no gap to squeeze through (very impressive to see in the head on if you recorded the replay on TV). That was just very unlucky as she was going much the strongest 1f out and one could only have the feeling her jockey had still loads of horse beneath. This confirmed the strong performance in her penultimate start, as well at Lingfield, then over 10f though, when she went from the front that day, setting a pretty decent pace and having everyone off the bridle 4f out while going strongly herself turning for home, just to tire badly very deep inside the final furlong to finish 4th in the end. The 1m trip is more suitable anyway and as she's contesting over this tomorrow and dropping into class 7 company, being able of racing of the bottom weight I feel she can't get beaten here if things go normal as she has no problem with attitude I think. It only can be a bonus that Hayley Turner gets the leg up as she enjoys a healthy 19% strike rate with trainer S. Dow for the past 12 month.

Monday the 28th of January...

15.50 Kempton: Hidden Link @ 5/2 - 4pts win

Hidden Link won really well on his Handicap debut at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago. He was in a good position when the pace increased from 3f out but he finished strongly and well on top of the rest of the field to win it more comfortably than the actual winning distance suggest I think. There should be more to come and the rise in the mark of 3lb could be lenient. Even more so as he steps up in trip to 11f for the first time and more improvement is expected over this sort of distance considering that he's out of a multiple Group winner over 12f. I feel the bookies got things wrong here as well as they installed Great Ormond as the favourite. He was fair and square beaten by Hidden Link in the Wolverhampton race though, while Hidden Link had to carry 7lb more that day. Sure, Great Ormond showed great improvement for the step up in trip and won well a few days later, but he's up by 9lb for that success, which means he meats Hidden Link on four pounds worse terms tomorrow compared to the race two weeks ago.

Saturday the 26th of January...

17.00 Wolverhampton: Dundrum Dancer @ 6/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

I thought this mare showed a very impressive performance in her most recent race at Wolverhampton after coming back from a 2 month long break. She was a 40/1 shot that day but certainly didn't run like one as she was travelling strongly in mid-field on the inside turning for home and found plenty when asked for an effort. She finished a decent 2nd in the end, just beaten by the lightly raced winner who was probably well handicapped that day. For Dundrum Dancer it was the first time over the 9f trip and while she showed two decent performances in the summer last year at Brighton this was probably her best performance so far. Earlier in her career she showed some promise in Ireland, finishing placed in some decent races, but so far she found it impossible to put her head in front. This could change tomorrow as she should be in great shape with the recent run under her belt, she is competitive over course and distance and while her mark went up 2lb it looks a wise move to give promising 5lb claimer WT Davis the ride. This race here tomorrow looks competitive but I think Dundrum Dancer will be in with a big shout nonetheless and 6/1 looks to be a shade to big in my mind.

Friday the 25th of January...

15.05 Lingfield: Khawatim @ 2/1 Ladbrokes - 6pts win

Won earlier this month at Wolverhampton by a narrow margin after encountering all sort of traffic problems in the closing stages, yet he was brave and won in the final strides by a neck finishing strongly when finally in the clear. A 4lb rise in the mark for this success shouldn't make too much of a difference and he could be easily still very well handicapped.

Tuesday the 22nd of January...

17.10 Wolverhampton: Imaginary World @9/2 Bet365 - 4pts win

The form books tells a clear story: Imaginary World is a very frustrating horse. Only two wins in 39 starts looks pretty poor. However I feel she clearly showed some promise in her most recent start here at Wolverhampton when she had just everything against herself. It started already badly after leaving the gates when she was bumped and forced to lose position, and it continued in the home bend when he was simply locked on the inside and had to wait until approaching the home straight to try and make some headway, what she did eventually quite stylishly and she appeared to be a big threat until she found her way being blocked at the furlong marker. When she was badly hampered again shortly afterwards her chance was completely gone, yet she finished still a very decent sixth just 3½ beaten in the end. The way she travelled through the race clearly indicated that she's in fantastic form now and very well handicapped after slipping down to a more than handy looking mark - in fact she never ran off such a low mark in a Handicap before. As she's allowed to race of the same mark again tomorrow I really think she must have a huge chance in this race here, that looks a much weaker contest than the last one anyway.

Wednesday the 16th of January...

17.45 Kempton: Vitznau @ 5/2 Paddy Power - 5pts win

 Vitznau doesn't get any younger and is now winless for quite a while but the last time we've seen him on a racetrack, in November here at Kempton, he looked as if he would regain some of the old sparkle when he travelled super well on the bridle until almost 1f out and finished in a good fashion to take the 3rd place. The first three came a good deal clear of the rest of the field and this form works out very well indeed, so it looks fair to assume that even of a 2lb higher mark he might be now very well handicapped again. I wouldn't really mind the break since November and think that from a good draw with Kirby booked he might be very hard to beat tomorrow.

Monday the 14th of January...

16.50 Wolverhampton: Precision Strike @ 4/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

This is a very poor race but if one stands out for me than it is really Precision Strike here in my mind. He ran now the last two times very well but was on both occasions an unlucky horse. The Friday one week ago at Wolverhampton he travelled well enough in rear of the field and improved his position in good style when turning for home but was badly hampered around 1f out and lost every chance as a result of that as he was out off his rhythm and didn't recover. He dropped 3lb for this run and appeared three days later at the same track and was equally unlucky again but really showed that he's now a very well handicapped horse in my mind. He was travelling in rear again which wasn't the best position though as the pace was slow and when the leaders kicked away 3f out he simply was not able to react from behind as he was locked on the inside. Entering the home straight he had loads to do but was finally in the clear and finished then like a train cutting back the deficit in eye-catching fashion to finish 3rd in the end. Generous as the handicapper is he gets another pound off the mark so that I can't help myself but Precision Strike should be more than ready to strike if finally getting a clear run.

Sunday the 13th of January

13.30 Wolverhampton: Spirit Of Gondree @ 7/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

 Spirit Of Gondree was travelling much the best turning for home here at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago but experienced an absolute nightmare in the closing stages as he simply no room to go. His jockey tried desperately to find a gap and almost manoeuvred the horse like a bulldozer trough the field from 2f out. Finally half a furlong out he was in the clear and in a matter of strides he finished like a train to take easily the 3rd place just hands and heels ridden. There is no doubt that he was the best horse in the race which goes along with the fact that he is now very well handicapped again being allowed to race off 3lb below his last winning mark. The race tomorrow is a big field and he has a wide draw to overcome again but there is no doubt that Spirit Of Gondree is in fantastic shape and is a way too big price in my mind.

Saturday the 12th of January...

13.25 Lingfield: My Own Way Home @ 11/2 VC - 3pts win

Very good effort here at Lingfield last week I think as she travelled well turning for home but found herself short of room from 2f out there as she was sort of in a sandwich between two other horses. She really had to fight for a gap and was brave to took the slightest of space. She finished very strongly eventually when finally some space opened up to land the 2nd place. She's never won on the All-Weather yet but don't think the surface is a problem and on the evidence of her turf form she'd be well handicapped as she's on her last winning mark. This race here is a better one no doubt, but she can race of a feather weight and should relish the expected true pace thanks to Waabel who is another one I really like here but I feel he could set it up perfectly for My Own Way Home.

Friday the 11th of January...

Royal Sea wins it on the line

Another good day today with one winner from three selections as Royal Sea prevailed in a photo! He was badly outpaced and looked an unlikely winner turning for home but as the leading horses started to tire his stamina kicked in and he really powered home to win it on the line. The other selections at least provided a run for the money as Do More Business travelled like the winner 1f out but didn't find much in the closing stages then, didn't get much assistance from the jockey though, while Reflect had no chance in a slowly ran race travelling in rear too far of the pace, yet finished as strong as possible. 

That makes the last five days pretty successful with now 3 winners from 7 selections! That is a huge profit as well obviously and boosts the overall profit for the Blog enormously. And while not everything worked in a way I hoped in the last number of weeks, it's the long term that matters. And in the long term hard work and discipline always prevails.

16.30 Wolverhampton: Ryedale Dancer @ 7/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

 Ryedale Dancer ran a huge race here at Wolverhampton last week finishing a smart 2nd to the very progressive and simply too well handicapped Miss Bunter. Ryedale Dancer travelled nicely in rear but had a bit to do from behind turning for home for that reason. She was switched to the inside then where she finished like a train to land the second spot. That was over 5f but she's probably better over a bit further so it should be in her favour to race over 6f here tomorrow. She's only 2lb above her last winning mark but I felt this recent performance was a few pounds better than the mark she's left on at the moment. The form of that race works very well out with the winner and the 3rd placed horse all followed up with a success. Overall it was a much stronger race than the race she's contesting in tomorrow. Only slight concern is the wide draw but with only eleven runners in the field the second widest draw doesn't has to be a too big factor probably and therefore I'm pretty confident in a big run of Ryedale Dancer.

Thursday the 10th of January 2013...

14.35 Wolverhampton: Reflect @ 13/2 VC - 2pts win

Reflect ran a huge race here at Wolverhampton lto, travelling in rear, while the front-running winner had the run of the race setting a slow pace. Yet Reflect was in with every chance 3f out until encountering traffic problems turning for home. He had to take the widest route around the home bend eventually and that surly cost some ground. He really powered home in the closing stages though, but was a bit shifting to the right and then left deep inside the final furlong as well. Overall I think this was a fine performance and he's down to a very handy mark now. He finished a strong 2nd to Brown Panther in a strong Handicap in 2011, so there is no doubt he has got some ability but is clearly a difficult horse. I think he has a good chance here to find the way back to the winning ways here anyway.



15.05 Wolverhampton: Royal Sea @ 7/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Royal Sea was in fantastic form in the last number of weeks improving allot and it looks to me there could be still more to come. He tried 12f for the first time lto and travelled nicely in a prominent position but was then 2f out badly hampered and again 1f out which cost every chance obviously. The step back in trip down to 9f should be no problem though and a more suitable trip and the 2lb rise in the mark shouldn't be a problem either as a decent 7lb claimer is booked for the ride. He's still lightly raced and this race here looks not too competitive I feel.



16.15 Kempton: Do More Business @ 7/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Really poor race but Do More Business proved to be in fine shape with a stunning late run at Lingfield last week. He had the widest draw to overcome and was plum last turning widest of all for home. He produced a strong finish on the outside though and a repeat of that performance would see him going very close in this race here.

Wednesday the 9th of January..

14.40 Lingfield: Derwentwater @ 3/1 Paddy Power - 5pts win

Looks a poor race and I think Derwentwater is a better horse than what he has shown in six starts and what his mark is suggesting at the moment. His most recent performance was a big improvement and I felt he had loads against him in the race so the way he actually finished was definitely eye-catching. He was bumped at the start, he pulled very hard after that and was unsettled in the early parts of the race, he was then surly in the worst position of all in this small field when the pace kicked on from 3f out while the field was crawling before. He needed a bit of time to get on terms and was then brought on the inside rail where his jockey switched him a bit to the right again after failing to find a gap right on the inside there. That cost a bit of momentum but Derwentwater found the balance soon enough to start a big challenge and looked to make a winning move until the tank was probably empty and he got beaten by half a lengths eventually deep inside the final furlong. As it looks on the cards that we get a better pace in this race tomorrow I think Derwentwater could be very hard to beat with further improvement expected of the same handicap mark.



15.45 Lingfield: Charming @ 10/3 Bet365 - 4pts win

Charming had a wide draw to overcome last time out here at Lingfield. As a result he was racing very wide indeed, 4-5 wide on the outside until turning form home very wide as well obviously which made life not easier. He really finished super strongly then but had no chance with the eventual winner who had rather the run of the race. Charming is 6lb with the winner of that race, Novabridge, tomorrow and has every chance to turn the table I feel as he has a much better draw and could now be very hard to beat in a race like this of a career lowest mark.

Monday the 7th of January...

16.30 Kempton: Khawatim @ 7/4 Bet365 - 5pts win

Won today at Wolverhampton after encountering all sort of traffic problems in the closing stages, yet he was brave and won in the final strides by a neck finishing strongly when finally in the clear. I think a penalty won't be able to stop him as he was surely super well handicapped today and the same applies under a penalty in my mind. He's in fantastic shape, and the opposition in this race is not the strongest.
 

17.50 Wolverhampton: Great Ormond @ 3/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

He made his Handicap debut here at Wolverhampton three weeks ago and travelled well in rear but had loads of ground to make up from there. He started a big move from 3f out on the outside but was forced to turn home widest of all eventually what surly cost some vital ground while the eventual winner had the run of the race on the inside. Great Ormond produced a strong finish on the outside from 2f out and finished a good 2nd in the end. No doubt he would have finished much closer with a clear run. This performance suggests he is well handicapped of his low mark.

Sunday the 6th of January...

16.20 Wolverhampton: Khawatim @ 8/1 Ladbrokes - 3pts win

 Strange performance lto at Lingfield as he was slightly outpaced early on but travelled well enough turning for home, yet his jockey was rather reluctant to ask any serious questions and just started riding really forward from 1f out when the bird was flown already, though. Khawatim responded and finished in good style suggesting he is in decent form. He drops further in the weights though, what brings him down to a very handy looking mark of 71. Apart of this eye-catching facts Khawatim looks a very interesting prospect considering that he was a fairly decent 2yo, having won two races in France back in 2010 and finished 3rd and fourth in Group 3's there in small fields but not far beaten. He couldn't confirm the promise as a 3yo and changed yards twice sine then, having been sold to the UK where he didn't run badly in the class 2 William Birch & Sons Construction Handicap at York on his UK debut. He didn't show anything since then though and slipped down the mark and could become very well handicapped now, as the most recent performance confirmed that he's in good shape and could run better than the bare result suggested. If the handbrake is off tomorrow he's every chance to win this poor contest, the step up in trip to 6f should be in his favour as well.

Saturday the 5th of January 2013...

14.00 Lingfield: Waabel @ 10/1 Blue Square - 2pts win

I thought Waabel showed a tremendous performance here at Lingfield in a claimer three weeks ago when he pushed forward from a wide draw and set a suicidal pace from the front. Yet he looked still strong turning for home, though got eventually tired in the final furlong and was swooped by the field, he still fought back however and was even hampered in the closing stages, yet he was only beaten by 2¼ lengths in the end which shows what fine performance this actually was. I think if his jockey gets the fractions right tomorrow Waabel must go very close here despite having to overcome a wide draw.



15.10 Lingfield: Rugosa @ 10/3 Paddy Power - 5pts win

Lightly raced 4yo filly that hugely impressed me in her most recent outing here at Lingfield when just the overconfident ride of her jockey cost the win I suppose. She was held up in rear, way too long for my liking and was in an impossible position turning for home, yet was travelling best of all. The front-running winner got a really easy time in front though, set a dawdling pace and suddenly kicked 3f out on, but wasn't really taken seriously but never stopped eventually. Rugosa in contrast wasn't only way off the pace turning for home but also encountered traffic problems. Finally in the clear she finished like a train in the manner of a horse that has quite a few pounds in hand. This was her first start since August so she probably will be even better tomorrow with this run under herb elt and as she showed some nice performances earlier the year already I really fancy her strongly to win this race.v

Thursday the 3rd of January...

15.50 Lingfield: Spartic @ 6/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Spartic ran very well in his last two outings but the most recent run really caught my eye as he had a bad start and was racing very wide as a result of that throughout the whole race. He was then forced to turn even wider for home thanks to a badly to the right hanging rival. Yet Spartic really finished the race in great fashion in 3rd place and probably would have gone much closer in different circumstances. He gives the impression of a well handicapped horse as this performance was a few pounds better than his current mark I suppose and despite being on a long loosing run I think it's worth to keep faith in him.

16.05 Wolverhampton: Stamp Duty @ 5/1 Bet365- 3pts win

I thought Stamp Duty was desperately unlucky three weeks ago here at Wolverhampton. In his first start since August he travelled very well in rear of the field but was stuck in traffic when the pace unfolded and the eventual winner kicked on. He had to wait and suffer until a gap opened and then finally asked for everything the response was enormous. He was chasing the leader -home  also the eventual winner - in the closing stages, in vain though due to the impossible position he had to come from, yet he finished impressively to land the runners-up spot. Considering this performance he looks very well handicapped which is confirmed by his low mark which is now 7lb below his last winning mark.