Thursday the 27th of December...

13.50 Lingfield: Macy Anne @ 25/1 Bet365 - 1pt win

This 3yo filly switched yards recently and appeared for Jo Hughes at a racetrack for the first time at Wolverhampton two weeks ago. The bar form of this race looks poor but I thought that absolutely everything went against her there. She had a wide draw to overcome, had a poor start then and was forced to race very wide as a result. She travelled three-four wide all the way but was suddenly very prominent turning for home and maybe hitting too soon the front. She then was hampered by shifting horses in the closing stages and eased down eventually. It's noteworthy that this was her first start after a break since August. She gets another 2lb off her mark nowwhich brings her down to very handy looking mark off 54. Macy Anne is still a maiden but she showed some promise earlier as she finished placed in three maidens at the beginning of her career and finished a very decent second at Bath earlier this year. Jim Crowley takes the ride who is ridding at his best at the moment, so I feel Macy Anne could spring a surprise here tomorrow.

Friday the 21st of December...

13.35 Lingfield: My Sweet Lord @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

My Sweet Lord won here at Lingfield impressively two weeks ago. He was travelling in rear of the field for a long way where he was slightly outpaced during the race, and had a good bit to do turning for home in second last position. He then was flying on the inside rail though, staying on as the only on from the rear, to beat the very prominent ridden Small Fury on the line. He surly looks like a horse that has still more to offer as he's lightly raced and the step up to 7f looks rather in his favour than causing any problems. The 4lb raise in the mark could be lenient I feel. The form of this race works out super well as 2nd and 3rd placed have won next time out.



18.50 Wolverhampton: Wordiness @ 7/1 Paddy Power - 2pts win

Wordiness probably would have won with a clear run at Lingfield last week. He raced in rear turning for home but picked up nicely and was then travelling very strongly until the 1f marker when he had no room to go and lost every chance to win as a result. He looks poised to win in my mind though, despite being a 12x maiden, as he ran pretty well in the last couple of weeks and the step up in trip to 12f tomorrow may help to bring out some further improvement.

Thursday the 20th of December...

18.30 Kempton: Brimstone Hill @ 4/1 Bet365 - 4pts win

Brimstone Hill was pretty unlucky in his most recent start here at Kempton. He was in the right position turning for home but found himself suddenly locked on the inside two furlongs out, that cost some momentum as he had to switch and find back the balance while the eventual winner and second kicked away in that moment and gained a big advantage through that. When finally in the clear and balanced Brimstone Hill finished like a train and still finished a very fine 3rd. This form works out very well and I assume that despite another raise of his handicap mark by 1lb he is still very well handicapped at the moment. The probably crucial question regarding his chance in this race tomorrow is only if he stays the trip as he step up to 12f for the first time. His sire is a sprinter, he produced some decent horses over longer distances though and there is some stamina on the dam side. Also the way he finishes his races suggests he has a good chance to stay the trip.



19.00 Kempton: Key Ambition @ 12/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Thought Key Ambition ran a hugely impressive race at Lingfield lto. He had a wide draw to overcome, was outpaced soon after the start and outpaced turning for home, in addition he really had to turn very wide, in fact widest of all, but stayed on very well on the outside eventually in a manner of a horse that may have a bit in hand over a distance further than 6f. So the step up in trip to 7f will clearly be beneficial on evidence of that run and also the pedigree is pointing into that direction with his sire having been a Group winner over that sort of trip. He's down to a very handy mark now, and his last two runs were eye-catching, even though the most recent one really proved that he is poised to win when finally stepping up in trip (one try over 7f at Southwell so far, I ignore that run though, as Southwell form nor comparable with the other AW tracks). Think 12/1 is a massive price here.

Monday the 17th of December...

16.25 Wolverhampton: Gabrial The Boss @ 5/1 Betfair - 3pts win

He's down in a claimer for the first time after running twice in eye-catching fashion. He finished 3rd in a Kempton Handicap in November, when found out for speed in the final 100 yard, he finished a fine 3rd only 1¾ lengths in the end though. This form works out pretty well with three NTO winners. Gabrial The Boss appeared then at Wolverhampton five days later and was travelling best of all turning for home but was very unfortunate to be locked on the inside and lost soon every chance when badly hampered in the closing stages as well. He's now back after a break of four weeks and despite being still a maiden I expect him to be very competitive in this small field with Andrea Atenzia booked for the ride for whom this is the only ride today.

Statistical overview...

As I changed my betting approach completely some four or five month ago I thought it's time to take a deep dive into the stats, to analyze them and to see what went well and what not. As you may know you can find a complete statistic for all Blog bets on the left hand site of this blog or you just can click here for all past results as well of course.

What is clearly to say after all: It's working well, the blog is showing a profit, even though not as much as I hoped and the strike rate could be better obviously. That's things to work on and in order to achieve that it's important to analyze properly what has happened in the recent number of weeks. While I worked myself through all the stats I found out that I didn't have a single winner at double figure odds. Even though there were big priced horses that went close, yet they all failed to win. So this is something to address and may lead to a change in terms of what sort of prices and horses I'll have a bet on in the future. But there is something else that I found out and that's quite interesting as surprising as well. I produced some stats for the different All-Weather tracks as they were the main proposition in the last couple of weeks obviously, so it's interesting to see to how I fared at these different tracks in detail. Surprising is that things worked completely different compared to what I felt if you see the naked figures.  I always felt and said that I don't have too much confident in bets at Lingfield, in stark contrast to Kempton for example. Lingfield is a track I thought I struggle to get a grip on, particularly after they laid out the new surface. And I thought that Kempton is my favoured track, one that can be trusted and that throws up reliable results. Well, feelings and figures couldn't be more different:

So it's pretty obvious that despite thinking I wouldn't do well at Lingfield the reality stands in stark contrast to that. The strike rate is fantastic, what probably is very much down to the fact that I'm much more selective at Lingfield. Could that be hint though, that I haven't been that selective at other tracks? Well, maybe. But while the stats for Wolverhampton are decent enough - yes 'decent' is the right word I suppose - Kempton is quite disastrous actually. Well the sample rate is not big enough to draw really insightful conclusions, but one winner from ten bets, considering how often I showed some confidence in these selections according to the stakes I used, is awful. So this is something to take very much into account in the future, no doubt, if I want to increase strike rate and profit. Anyway, apart of that, it all looks not to bad overall and I hope the positive way continues. 

Friday the 14th of December...

14.20 Lingfield: Titan Triumph @ 13/1 Betfair - 2pts win

Titan Triumph is a tricky customer as he really needs a strong pace to be seen at his best. But he looks very well handicapped being down to a mark 5lb below the last winning mark. He won at Lingfield in March this year a better race off 80, so to be able to race of a mark off 75 in this class 5 Handicap entitles him to go close as he hasn't been allowed to run of such a low All-Weather mark since 2008. He had absolutely no chance here at Lingfield last week in a race though of this sort of mark, but to his defence is has to be said that this race was ran at a slow pace and horses from the rear had no chance whatsoever. It looks a decent enough pace on the card this time though with the likes of L'Hirondelle and Everybody Knows in the line-up. Also this smaller field should suit as the majority of his wins came in races with less than ten runners in the field. So I'd be surprised if he doesn't give a good account tomorrow.

Tuesday the 11th of December...

15.30 Lingfield: Honest Strike @ 5/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Honest Strike was massively impressive at Southwell three days ago when he raced well off the pace trailing at the end of the field but made very wide on the outside of the field some impressive headway from 5f out. He stayed on super well in the closing stages and almost won it on the line, coming from last to first but just failed in a photo! Obviously it's hard to compare Southwell form with other tracks but this run definitely confirmed that he is very much back in form and probably down to a pretty handy mark. He has form on All-Weather apart of Southwell as he finished 3rd in maiden at Wolverhampton two years ago, a form that worked out well btw. He won after that a maiden at Southwell and went up allot in the mark, racing of 82 at the highest, had then a break of one year, didn't show anything, had then again a break of 1/4 of a year while appearing this year in May at a racetrack again, he finished well beaten in a couple of runs though until the mentioned Southwell run where he finally slipped down to a mark of 50. He wasn't raised in the mark for his photo-finish 3rd by the handicapper so that means he really should have a big chance here tomorrow in a very poor race.

Sunday the 9th of October...

14.50 Lingfield: Awesome Rock @ 8/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

 Still a maiden but his most recent performance at Kempton suggests he's very well in form. He travelled in rear until five furlongs out and started then a big move on the outside to progress into second turning for home. He travelled like a dream and looked the likely winner while the rest was early off the bridle. It was a frenetic pace and Awesome Rock had to pay for his big move eventually when he got beaten in a photo by a closer. Unlucky, but he has another chance tomorrow and his revised mark shouldn't prevent him from running a big race.

Friday the 7th of December...

15.05 Lingfield: Forest Edge @ 2/1 VC - 6pts win
 

Forest Edge ran a huge race here at Lingfield a fortnight ago over a trip which is usually on the sharp side. He was slightly outpaced in the early stages of the race as a result of the fast pace over that 5f trip but was well in with a chance turning for home, was then a clear run denied by Six Wives though who was slightly wandering to the right and to left in the closing stages. When he finally went past SW he finished strongly, staying on well to get the 3rd place in the end. The step back to 6f will be very much in Forest Edge's favour tomorrow obviously and he should be the horse to beat.



15.40 Lingfield: Archina @ 7/1 Bet365 - 3pts win

Strong travelling sort even though very much one paced as well. He won very well in October at Wolverhampton, a form that works out well too, was wrong in his next start but ran eye-catchingly after that, in his most recent start, again at Wolverhampton. He travelled best of all turning for home but was soon hampered and taken into a sandwich by two other horses, which must have had an impact on his chance, yet he still finished well in fourth, but was very one paced as usual and wasn't really able to cope with the speed of the first three in the final furlong. He steps up to 12f for the first time tomorrow, which is interesting. His running style suggests he could well improve for that new distance and his pedigree gives him a chance to stay the trip as well. He still didn't have that many races and if he does improve for the step up in trip indeed then he could be hard to beat in this poor field.

Thursday the 6th of December...

12.25 Lingfield: Spin Again @ 7/2 Bet365 - 5 pts win

Here we are yet again! You can find detailed reasoning why this horse is really interesting in my other post from today as Spin Again was today's selection as well as he was racing in the 2.00 at Lingfield, where he finished 8th however. Nothing wrong with this run though as it wasn't run at the a pace to suit him which should be different tomorrow, yet he travelled very well but just didn't have a chance in a sprint finish and didn't get a hard ride either. Still spot on and due to win in my mind.

Wednesday the 5th of December...

Frock was a non-runner yesterday...

14.00 Lingfield: Spin Again @ 9/2 Paddy Power - 4pts win

Spin Again looks very much back in form and well handicapped as well according to his most recent very eye-catching performance here at Lingfield last week. He travelled nicely in rear of the field, faced a tough task in the closing stages though as he didn't get a clear run there but when he was finally in the clear he finished in the manner of a horse that is in serious form. He is very well in the weights at the moment, loves Lingfield, and even though this looks a slightly stronger race than the last one I do expect a bold show today.

Tuesday the 4th of December...

16.40 Wolverhampton: Frock @ 14/1 Bet365 - 2pts win

Very eye-catching performance for this 3yo filly at Lingfield last week after a break of more than half a year over an inadequate trip. She was badly outpaced in rear of the field and many lengths behind when the field turned for home, so it was even more impressive to see her staying on very well getting an easy ride by her jockey and finishing well within the field only around five lengths beaten in the end. She should be much sharper tomorrow obviously and may be a bit stronger and mature after that long break so I think it's probably the best to ignore her performances of the time before this reappearance. She'll step up in trip tomorrow again, back over 9f, which will suit much better and as she got another 3lb off her mark I feel she could be easily very well handicapped and could go very well in this really poor class 6 Handicap.

Monday the 3rd of December...

14.20 Kempton: The Wonga Coup 7/2 Bet365 - 5pts win

The Wonga Coup is still an All-Weather maiden but he's holding well his form in the last number of weeks and his most recent performance at Wolverhampton was really an eye-catching one. He travelled nicely in rear there, improved in good fashion his position from 3f out then and really ran on well but was just unlucky to bump into a progressive and very well handicapped 3yo so that he finished a clear second in the end. I think this is a very fine piece of form and the 2lb raise in the mark shouldn't stop him from finally winning a race on the All-Weather as this race here looks easier than the last one.

Saturday the 1st of December...

Some rare selections from outside Europe today but I feel I found two really good value chances at the Turffontein's big meeting today...

14.50 Turffontein: Silent Partner @ 40/1 Bet365 - 0.5pts e/w

Fantastic Grade 1 action from South Africa today as this years Summer Cup looks a cracking renewal. 20 runners, and many within a chance, probably primed for this race like the popular Smanjemanje and "the peoples horse" Pierre Jourdan. Mujaarib is the clear favourite though and this lightly raced 4yo colt is very exciting indeed. Unbeaten in four starts, winning a Grade 2 here at Turffontein four weeks back, but he has to transfer this brilliant form now to a new distance as he's stepping up in trip to 2.000m for the first time. He should be capable of that and off a lowly weight he might be hard to beat but personally I can't see value in his very short price in such a big and competitive field so I stick with another De Kock runner: Silent Partner. This 5yo Silvano son looks massively overpriced and should be absolutely primed for this race, having the advantage to race of a featherweight of just 52 kilos! Mick De Kock said he is expecting a big run and that statement from the master himself should be taken very seriously as Silent Partner has a profile that makes him a big runner indeed here. He didn't have that many runs in the last number of month and was rather kept fresh. This will be his third run after a four month break today and he has some interesting form to share with favourite Mujaarib, as his reappearance after that lay-off came in the Grade 2 Emperors Palace Charity Mile, the race which Mujaarib won in such impressive style when finishing like a train to take it by a short head. Silent Partner finished fifth in this race, but only 3,5 lengths beaten in the end, staying on well after having a troubled run in the final 500m over a distance which is probably too sharp for him actually. He didn't perform that well two weeks later in another Grade 2 but that form is to ignore. This two prep runs should have get him into super shape though and he'll be fit and well and despite being maybe a bit short of class in terms of what is required in a Grade 1, there is a big race in him and of the bottom weight he can go very close I feel.

 14.10 Turffontein: Wild One e/w @ 20/1 Bet365 - 1pt e/w

The Grade 2 Dingaans Mile is another exciting race with a very short priced favourite who is opposable in my mind as he looks exposed compared to some lightly raced horses in the field. Nonetheless he sets a high standard and we will see if any of the opposition is able to reach this standard but at 11/10 I take Hangman on anyway. My selections Wilde One is very lightly raced, had only two start to date, winning well his maiden on debut and finishing a very eye-catching third in a strong Listed race just two weeks ago. He was slowly into stride there, very green through the whole race and also slightly outpaced at some stage. He didn't get a hard ride though by his jockey and was 300m out plum last but stayed on in very impressive fashion from an impossible position to land the third spot, without being hard ridden. He had no chance with the winner who is super horse and therefore this form is worth allot but with natural improvement and more experience Wilde One could turn into a really nice horse as well. He should have a decent chance to be in the frame here today I feel anyway and connections won't make the trip with the horse over from Durban to Turffontein just for the fun of the game.